College Football Bracketology: Four Big 10 Teams In; Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, and Who?!

Written By Road to CFB | Published at October 15, 2024

Just because Week 7 of the college football season didn't present as many upsets as its predecessor doesn't mean it didn't have major impacts on Bracketology. Oregon's win over Ohio State and LSU's win over Ole Miss offered the biggest impacts across the projected 12-team College Football Playoff. However, as teams continue to win and lose, the latest projections (and AP Top 25) offer some interesting teams. Primarily, can the Indiana Hoosiers make the Big Ten a four-bid league?

Let's take a look at the impacts of a blockbuster Week 7 and what the 12-team College Football Playoff field could look like today. Does any value still lie on the board with teams on the outside looking in?

Odds To Make The 2024 College Football Playoff

Click on odds to bet on the 12-team CFP below. We'll use these odds to approach college football bracketology below.

Biggest Week 7 Risers

Oregon Ducks: Beat No. 2 Ohio State, 32-31. It turns out that beating the No. 2 team in the nation and assuming the Big Ten favorite have some pretty positive ramifications. Oregon is now as close to a lock to make the College Football Playoff as the odds allow (-2000 as of Tuesday, tied with the best odds with Texas and implied 95% probability). In terms of win/loss record, Oregon controls the Big Ten, but ratings still favor Ohio State. We may get a rematch of this thriller in Indianapolis.
LSU Tigers: Beat No. 9 Ole Miss, 29-26, in OT. That opening week loss to USC is becoming more and more distant. Since then, LSU has won five straight, most recently over Ole Miss. The most difficult part of the schedule is yet to be played, including games at rival Texas A&M and home against Alabama. However, LSU will still be favored in four of its final six games. A 10-2 LSU with a loss to either Alabama or A&M and a Week 1 blip against USC likely gets them in. The Tigers rose inside the AP Top 10.
Iowa State Cyclones: Beat West Virginia, 28-16. For the first time this year, Iowa State is both the most likely team to win the Big 12 and, by default, make the CFP. The victory propelled the Cyclones inside the top 10 nationally (No. 9) with a schedule increasingly opening up ahead of them. Competitors like Utah and UCF already have multiple losses each, and hosting Kansas State–a team with poor road performances–is looking exceedingly winnable.

Biggest Week 7 Fallers

Utah Utes: Lost to Arizona State, 27-19. Cam Rising is out for the season, and, perhaps more deflating, it appeared not to matter whether Rising was in the lineup or not. Rising threw three interceptions, and Utah (-6.5) lost the game, barely a wiggle on the result from if Isaac Wilson played. Utah isn't technically out of the Big 12 running yet, but it's out of the at-large running for certain.
Ole Miss Rebels: Lost to No. 13 LSU, 29-26, in OT. A second loss on the season–this time 29-26 at LSU in overtime–moves Ole Miss from controlling its own destiny to now needing help. The Rebels officially sit on the outside looking in as their CFP odds plummeted. Worse yet, Ole Miss has a date with Georgia and tricky games against Arkansas (away) and Oklahoma (home) yet to go.
USC Trojans: Lost to No. 4 Penn State, 33-30, in OT. It was a close fight, but that third loss not only removes USC from the At-Large conversation (which we already did last week) but from the Big Ten race, too. USC's hopes at the CFP can be crossed out in Sharpie.

Teams Eliminated From The CFP At-Large Conversation

Ole Miss Rebels: Lost to LSU, 29-26/OT. Suffered a second loss and dropped to 18th in the AP Top 25. Still has Georgia on the schedule.
Utah Utes: Lost to Arizona State, 27-19. Second straight loss.
Eastern Michigan Eagles: Lost to Miami (OH), 38-14. Even winning the MAC can't help EMU with two losses.
Oregon State Beavers: Lost to Nevada, 42-37. Finishing 11-1 with a lone loss to Oregon may have snuck the Beavers in, but that door is closed now.
Kentucky Wildcats: Lost to Vanderbilt, 20-13. A 10-2 Kentucky with wins over Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Texas would have been in. Now the Cats are looking at 7-5 or, at best, 8-4.

Note: All Power Conference teams still have a chance at an auto-bid to the Playoff by winning their league. However, their At-Large hopes are effectively dashed.

College Football Bracketology

The bracket below was chosen based on current odds at college football betting sites to make the CFP at college football betting sites. Spread projections and advancements were decided using aggregated industry power ratings (FPI, SP+, etc.).

As teams add to their resume this season, I will begin to assess college football bracketology using the CFP committee's criteria.

Projected CFP Top Four & First-Round Byes (Only Conference Champions Eligible)

(1) Texas Longhorns - SEC Champion
(2) Oregon Ducks - Big Ten Champion
(3) Miami (FL) Hurricanes - ACC Champion
(4) Iowa State Cyclones - Big 12 Champion

Projected CFP First-Round Matchups

(12) Boise State Broncos at (5) Ohio State Buckeyes
(11) LSU Tigers at (6) Penn State Nittany Lions
(10) Indiana Hoosiers at (7) Alabama Crimson Tide
(9) Notre Dame Fighting Irish at (8) Georgia Bulldogs

First Four Out

Clemson Tigers
BYU Cougars
James Madison Dukes
Army Black Knights

College Football Bracketology: Bubble Teams

Looking outside college football odds, there are some teams in advantageous positions to make a CFP run. Here are some teams that sit outside the odds projections that I think we could see come December:

Iowa State Cyclones (Beat West Virginia, 28-16, moves to 6-0)
Indiana Hoosiers (On bye, sits at 5-0 with resume testers against Ohio State, Michigan, and Nebraska. Project for more wins than Clemson.)
BYU Cougars (beat Arizona, 41-19, moves to 6-0)

Conversely, there are a couple of teams that the odds project in or on the fringe that I think are a bit overvalued:

Tennessee Volunteers (Flawed offense scoring 18.3 ppg against SEC competition with Alabama, Kentucky, and Georgia left)
Ole Miss Rebels (Two losses already, Georgia left on the schedule)
Miami Hurricanes (Easy route to ACC Championship, but only beat first two ACC foes by 3 total points. Priced like commanding ACC favorite and foregone conclusion for at-large)