College Football Playoff Bracketology: Major Shakeup After Week 5 Results

Week 5 of the college football season offered some of the biggest games for bracketology of the year. Now beyond the first trimester of the season, College Football Playoff odds and National Title odds are on the move after every result. Of course, the biggest impact came from Alabama’s instant classic win over Georgia in Tuscaloosa. But Kentucky over Ole Miss, Kansas State over Oklahoma State, and Boise State over Washington State had equally huge impacts.

Let’s take a look at the impacts from Week 5 and what the 12-team College Football Playoff field could look like today. Does any value lie on the board with teams on the outside looking in?

Odds To Make The 2024 College Football Playoff

Click on odds to bet on the 12-team CFP below. We’ll use these odds to approach college football bracketology below.

Biggest Week 5 Risers

• Alabama Crimson Tide: Turns out, notching top-three wins over conference favorites has major implications. Alabama moves into the top spot in my overall power ratings and, I believe, the frontrunner for the SEC. Texas and Georgia duke it out later this year, guaranteeing a loss for either top contender. Bama has resume builders (but also potential losses!) against Tennessee, Missouri, LSU, and Oklahoma left.
• Iowa State Cyclones: Quietly, Iowa State is in prime position to make a run at the Big 12’s automatic bid to the CFP. The Cyclones don’t play a team in the current AP Top 25 until their final two games of the year (at Utah, vs. Kansas State). However, getting a crack at Utah without Cameron Rising in the lineup would be a prime game.
• UNLV Rebels: Turns out, these Rebels are pretty darn good. Hajj-Malik Williams assumed the QB1 duties, and UNLV hung 59 on presumed Mountain West contender Fresno State. Keep an eye on a now-blockbuster Friday night matchup between UNLV and Boise State on Oct. 25.

Biggest Week 5 Fallers

• Georgia Bulldogs: It turns out losing a top-four matchup against a top-conference contender has major implications. Georgia now lines 9.6 average wins for the remainder of the year against a schedule that includes Texas, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. Even a 10-2 Georgia is sure to get in, a more likely outcome than 9-3. But the Bulldogs do fall down the bracket seeding list.
• Washington State Cougars: Without a guaranteed CFP berth in the Pac-2, Washington State’s hopes at 12-0 and an at-large bid – which was almost certainly a requirement to get in the CFP – were dashed at the hands of Boise State. Barring some serious chaos, Wazzu is probably not making the playoff now.
• Oklahoma State Cowboys: The route is always there, but OKST is fighting an uphill battle having now lost to both Utah and Kansas State. The door is still cracked, as K-State and Utah could always drop one two more conference games, but without a head-to-head matchup between the Utes and Wildcats, Oklahoma State just has hope left. Saturday’s lost removed the Pokes’ chance at controlling their own destiny.

Teams Eliminated From The CFP Conversation

• Oklahoma State Cowboys: Lost to Kansas State, 42-20
• Liberty Flames: Key resume game vs. App State was canceled. Liberty’s remaining strength of schedule now ranks 147th in D-I. Yes, 147th.
• Texas State Bobcats: Lost to Sam Houston State, 40-39

Note: Oklahoma State still has a chance at an auto-bid to the Playoff by winning the Big 12. All teams are technically still alive, but we’re presuming they were eliminated with this exercise.

College Football Bracketology

The bracket below was chosen based on current odds at college football betting sites to make the CFP at college football betting sites. Spread projections and advancements were decided using aggregated industry power ratings (FPI, SP+, etc.).

As teams add to their resume this season, I will begin to assess college football bracketology using the CFP committee’s criteria.

Note: Boise State ranks 10th over Tennessee to avoid two rematches. The College Football Playoff committee has made efforts to avoid rematches when possible. An 11-1 MWC Champion Boise State with a sole loss to Oregon would be grounds to avoid the 12th-ranked spot over Notre Dame, a non-conference champion with its (assumed) sole loss to Northern Illinois.

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Projected CFP Top Four & First-Round Byes (Only Conference Champions Eligible)

(1) Ohio State Buckeyes – Big Ten Champion
(2) Alabama Crimson Tide – SEC Champion
(3) Miami (FL) Hurricanes – ACC Champion
(4) Iowa State Cyclones – Big 12 Champion

Projected CFP First-Round Matchups

(12) Notre Dame Fighting Irish at (5) Texas Longhorns
(11) Tennessee Volunteers at (6) Oregon Ducks
(10) Boise State Broncos at (7) Georgia Bulldogs
(9) Clemson Tigers at (8) Penn State Nittany Lions

First Four Out

Ole Miss Rebels
James Madison Dukes
Kansas State Wildcats
LSU Tigers

College Football Bracketology: Bubble Teams

Going beyond just college football odds, there are some teams that are beginning to show their colors. Here are some teams that sit outside the odds projections that I think we could see come December:

• James Madison Dukes (Beat Ball State, 63-7, moves to 5-0)
• Iowa State Cyclones (Beat Houston, 20-0, moves to 4-0)
• UNLV Rebels (beat Fresno State, 59-10, moves to 4-0)

Conversely, there are a couple of teams that the odds project in or on the fringe that I think are a bit overvalued:

• Missouri Tigers (on BYE, play at Texas A&M next)
• USC Trojans (beat Wisconsin, 38-21, play at Minnesota and vs. Penn State next)

Week 6 Games With Biggest Impact On College Football Bracketology

• Syracuse at No. 25 UNLV (FRI, 9:00 p.m. ET, FS1)
• No. 9 Missouri at Texas A&M (12:00 p.m. ET, ABC)
• SMU at No. 22 Louisville (12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• No. 12 Ole Miss at South Carolina (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
• No. 11 USC at Minnesota (7:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network)

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