College Football Bracketology: Week 11 Risers & Fallers For The CFP

Written By Road to CFB | Published at November 13, 2024

The second edition of the College Football Playoff rankings came out Tuesday, and folks are mad about it. After all, what else would make up 90% of the social timeline during the workday Wednesday? Rather than argue about what the rankings got right and wrong (and that darned Big Ten bias!), let's look at the landscape of this past weekend and what might lie ahead for teams in the playoff hunt. I present Week 11 College Football Playoff bracketology.

Let's look at the impacts of Week 11 and what the 12-team College Football Playoff field could look like today. Does any value still lie on the board with teams on the outside looking in?

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Biggest Week 11 Risers

Ole Miss Rebels: Beat Georgia, 28-10. From 16th to 11th, Ole Miss rocketed back into the CFP with a historic, program-defining victory over the Dawgs. The Rebels are nearly locked to be picked for an at-large bid if they are selected for the playoff (as of today, they would be in!). However, an SEC championship berth isn't impossible. Of the three teams a game ahead of Ole Miss, two play each other in Week 13 (Texas-Texas A&M), and the other (Tennessee) plays Georgia. The SEC is a powder keg of chaos as it stands.
Indiana Hoosiers: Beat Michigan, 20-15. Its second win against Michigan since 1987 propelled Indiana to 10-0 and fifth in the latest CFP rankings. Even with a loss to Ohio State in two weeks — hell, even two losses to Ohio State and someone in the Big Ten championship game — it likely still cements the Hoosiers into the field. Maybe don't write them in Sharpie, but you can pencil them into the inaugural 12-team playoff.
Colorado Buffaloes: Beat Texas Tech, 41-27. Now sitting 17th in the latest CFP rankings, Colorado would play BYU in the Big 12 championship game. Just as we all projected, right? The Buffs' positioning is extremely advantageous. What looked like a gantlet of a stretch (Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma State) now looks like a winnable stretch that could finish Colorado at 10-2. And as BYU continues to skirt by opponents, Colorado's played in just two one-score games in conference play.

Biggest Week 11 Fallers

Pitt Panthers: Lost to Virginia, 24-19. A second loss on Pitt's resume certainly dumps the Panthers from a top 25 — and, by association, from at-large consideration — but likely from the ACC championship race, too. Pitt has a chance to own the tiebreaker with a win over Clemson in Week 12, but it still needs Miami, SMU, and Louisville to lose games.
Iowa State Cyclones: Lost to Kansas, 45-36. See above. The difference is that Iowa State has an easier route back into the Big 12 championship. The Cyclones need at least a loss from Colorado and, preferably, from Arizona State. Iowa State plays Kansas State head to head, clearing that tiebreaker up.
Georgia Bulldogs: Lost to Ole Miss, 28-10. A second loss on the resume dropped the Bulldogs down to 12th. Today, Georgia would not be in the CFP, as No. 13 Boise State would jump ahead as the highest-ranked Group of Five champion. But is Georgia really in danger of missing the playoff? Not if it wins out — UGA gets a crack at top-10 Tennessee this week.

Week 12 College Football Playoff Rankings

https://twitter.com/CFBPlayoff/status/1856529050937778350

Although analysts continue to pound the table that early rankings don't matter, that's not entirely the case. Initial rankings give insight into what the selection committee values and doesn't value, along with preconceived notions about teams that likely impact their standing throughout the process. The takeaways from draft two of the CFP rankings:

There is no SEC bias at the top, but the rankings are set up to bolster the middle group: Missouri continues to hold on to a top-25 ranking despite zero wins over teams power-rated inside the top 40. Losses to teams inside the top 40 combined for a 75-10 finish.
The Group of Five representatives won't get a first-round bye or host a first-round game: Boise State checks in 13th after just sneaking by Nevada in Week 11. Just a few spots behind sits two-loss Kansas State and Colorado. A win over BYU in the Big 12 championship (and, for K-State, wins over Arizona State and Iowa State) likely bumps the Big 12 winner ahead of Boise, assuming both win out.
There will not be a non-power team in the at-large field: Washington State sits 18th despite an 8-1 record. With remaining opponents combining for a 10-18 record (New Mexico, Oregon State, Wyoming), there are no resume-builders for Wazzu.
Betting outsiders is likely a fruitless effort: Army barely wiggled in the latest CFP rankings, instead being jumped by South Carolina and Missouri. Despite positioning from ESPN to include three-loss SEC teams, the CFP committee doesn't buy it. LSU tumbled seven spots to 22nd. Louisville moved up just three to 19th. Remember the latest movement and the road ahead before jumping on Army 9-1 or Iowa State 8-1 to make the field.

College Football Bracketology

The bracket below was chosen based on current odds at college football betting sites to make the CFP. Spread projections and advancements were decided using aggregated industry power ratings (FPI, SP+, etc.).

Projected CFP Top Four & First-Round Byes (Only Conference Champions Eligible)

(1) Oregon Ducks - Big Ten champion
(2) Texas Longhorns - SEC champion
(3) BYU Cougars - Big 12 champion
(4) Miami (FL) Hurricanes - ACC champion

Projected CFP First-Round Matchups

(12) Boise State Broncos at (5) Ohio State Buckeyes
(11) Indiana Hoosiers at (6) Ole Miss Rebels
(10) Georgia Bulldogs at (7) Penn State Nittany Lions
(9) Indiana Hoosiers at (8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

First Four Out

SMU Mustangs
Tennessee Volunteers
Texas A&M Aggies
Washington State Cougars

College Football Bracketology: Bubble Teams

Looking outside college football odds, some teams are in advantageous positions to make a CFP run. Here are some teams that sit outside the odds projections that I think we could see come December:

Colorado Buffaloes: In this case, take Colorado to win the Big 12. It's realistically the only path to the College Football Playoff for the Buffs, and you get the better price for the Big 12 Conference win. But at 7-2 and with what's suddenly a favorable schedule ahead, Colorado has the most straightforward path to the CFP of any Big 12 or ACC team. Colorado's only played in two one-score affairs against conference foes, while BYU has needed two walk-off field goals to stay unbeaten in the last three weeks.
Texas A&M Aggies: A&M's pricing comes from the fact that it still plays Texas this regular season. But that game will be at home and could be a play-in game for the SEC championship. Do you really believe the selection committee leaves out the SEC runner-up at 10-3?
SMU Mustangs: Like Colorado, take SMU to win the ACC at a better price here. The Mustangs are surging with impressive wins and a favorable route to Charlotte. With two upset wins over Louisville and Pitt, SMU only needs one more to secure a ticket to the CFP: over Miami (presumably). That Week 3 loss to unbeaten BYU isn't looking so bad now.

Conversely, there are a couple of teams that the odds project in or on the fringe that I think are a bit overvalued:

Georgia Bulldogs: OK, hear me out. Priced at -500, it assumes Georgia has one foot in the door. However, its current standing in the CFP rankings would have the Dawgs out if the CFP had started today. Tennessee's played at home, but that's no given victory. A loss there boots UGA from SEC contention and, by all considerations, the CFP.