College Football Playoff Bracketology: USA! Army or Navy Could Actually Make CFP

Written By Road to CFB | Published at October 8, 2024

Chaos! Week 6 completely broke down and re-formed both College Football Playoff odds and National Title odds after an astonishing seven ranked teams fell. Of those, four sat inside the top 10 and five inside the top 12. Unranked teams accounted for all but one of the upsets (Texas A&M). Now that the dust has resettled on the College Football Playoff bracketology landscape let's reassess. After all, the biggest week of the season, if not the last several seasons, sits on the horizon.

Let's take a look at the rippling impacts from a wild Week 6 and what the 12-team College Football Playoff field could look like today. Does any value lie on the board with teams on the outside looking in?

Odds To Make The 2024 College Football Playoff

Click on odds to bet on the 12-team CFP below. We'll use these odds to approach college football bracketology below.

Biggest Week 6 Risers

Texas Longhorns: Who'd have thought resting on bye would be so beneficial to your CFP outlook? Texas avoided a week of carnage while also enjoying watching Alabama–the previous projected SEC winner–fall to Vanderbilt. In Week 7, they have an opportunity to notch a serious resume builder against arch-rival Oklahoma. Quinn Ewers should return at QB.
Army Black Knights/Navy Midshipmen: While not in the current projected CFP field, two key Group of Five at-large contenders lost: UNLV and James Madison. As Army and Navy continue to pick up wins, now both at 5-0, they are on the short list of Go5 representatives in the Playoff. All they would need now is another Boise State loss to be in the driver's seat, per season-long projections. Who would have guessed that we may get two Army-Navy matchups: one for the AAC Championship Game and one for a CFP position?
Iowa State Cyclones: While they didn't move in our projected CFP bracket (we've picked them to win the Big 12 most of the year!), Iowa State rocketed up the AP Top 25, now to 11th. Utah continues to struggle without Cameron Rising, and Oklahoma State started the Big 12 slate at 0-3. All the while, Iowa State watches other league contenders beat up on each other, and it continues to pick up wins.

Biggest Week 6 Fallers

Alabama Crimson Tide: Whoops. Following a huge emotional win over Georgia and vaulting to No. 1 in the nation, Alabama fell to Deigo Pavia and Vanderbilt, 40-35. Vandy clinched its first-ever win over the top-ranked team in the country and marched the goalposts to the Cumberland River. In a prior year, this would have been a death knell for the Tide. In 2024, it's a hiccup. But that hiccup could have lasting impacts on seeding.
Missouri Tigers: It's less about who they lost to and more about the manner in which Mizzou lost. The Tigers were crushed by Texas A&M, 41-10, in College Station. As a result, the AP poll dropped them from ninth all the way down to 21st – indicative of just how telling that loss was. Before then, Mizzou skirted by both Boston College and Vanderbilt.
USC Trojans: A loss at top-10 Michigan can be excused if USC finished the season 11-1. But now, with two losses, the most recent coming to Minnesota, that's a tough argument to make for an at-large team likely contending with potential two-loss teams like Tennessee, LSU, Clemson, and Kansas State. The other blow was Michigan losing on the road, dropping the Wolverines to 24th in the AP Poll. The loss looks worse by the week.

Teams Eliminated From The CFP At-Large Conversation

Michigan Wolverines: Lost to Washington, 27-17, fell 14 spots down the AP Top 25
UNLV Rebels: Lost to Syracuse, 44-41, dropped out of AP Top 25
USC Trojans: Lost to Minnesota, 24-17, dropped out of AP Top 25
Louisville Cardinals: Lost to SMU, 34-27, dropped out of AP Top 25
South Carolina Gamecocks: Lost to Ole Miss, 27-3
Iowa Hawkeyes: Lost to Ohio State, 35-7
Arizona Wildcats: Lost to Texas Tech, 28-22
James Madison Dukes: Lost to ULM, 21-19

Note: All Power Conference teams still have a chance at an auto-bid to the Playoff by winning their league. However, their At-Large hopes are effectively dashed.

College Football Bracketology

The bracket below was chosen based on current odds at college football betting sites to make the CFP at college football betting sites. Spread projections and advancements were decided using aggregated industry power ratings (FPI, SP+, etc.).

As teams add to their resume this season, I will begin to assess college football bracketology using the CFP committee's criteria.

Note: Boise State projects for more wins than Clemson and Notre Dame on the season. The Broncos are quickly rising up the AP Top 25 with some voters projecting them to be the fourth seed over the Big 12 champion at the end of the year. With Ashton Jeanty the current betting favorite for the Heisman Trophy, watch for Boise State to receive much more national respect in the rankings. As a result, they secure the 10th seed in this projection.

Projected CFP Top Four & First-Round Byes (Only Conference Champions Eligible)

(1) Ohio State Buckeyes - Big Ten Champion
(2) Texas Longhorns - SEC Champion
(3) Miami (FL) Hurricanes - ACC Champion
(4) Iowa State Cyclones - Big 12 Champion

Projected CFP First-Round Matchups

(12) Notre Dame Fighting Irish at (5) Alabama Crimson Tide
(11) Clemson Tigers at (6) Oregon Ducks
(10) Boise State Broncos at (7) Georgia Bulldogs
(9) Penn State Nittany Lions at (8) Ole Miss Rebels

First Four Out

Tennessee Volunteers
Kansas State Wildcats
LSU Tigers
Army Black Knights

College Football Bracketology: Bubble Teams

Looking outside college football odds, there are some teams in advantageous positions to make a CFP run. Here are some teams that sit outside the odds projections that I think we could see come December:

Iowa State Cyclones (Beat Baylor, 43-21, moves to 5-0)
Army Black Knights (Beat Tulsa, 49-7, moves to 5-0)
Navy Midshipmen (beat Air Force, 34-7, moves to 5-0)

Conversely, there are a couple of teams that the odds project in or on the fringe that I think are a bit overvalued:

Miami (FL) Hurricanes (beat Cal 39-38 with a 25-point comeback, average MOV against ACC foes: 2 points. Those ACC foes are a combined 1-3 in league play)
Liberty Flames (currently scheduled to play 11 games, have the 147th-ranked strength of schedule in Division-I. No resume builders; entirely possible they get left out at 11-0 given last year's Fiesta Bowl result)
Texas A&M Aggies (beat Missouri, 41-10, still have LSU and Texas on the schedule. Project for 8.8 average wins)