College Football Week 5 Picks: Let’s Bet Oklahoma Schools

Written By Brett Gibbons on September 28, 2022
College Football Week 5 picks

Betting on college football played in the southeast in Week 5 seems like a dicey proposition. With Hurricane Ian bearing down, games are being shuffled around while others see wild swings in their odds. With wild swings comes potential value, and in this edition of College Football Week 5 picks, I’m looking to target a pair of those games.

Stay with us all season long for college football odds and game previews.

My College Football Picks For Week 5

To place a bet on any of the games below, click on odds in the tables below.

NC State at Clemson

The point total for this game opened at a conservative 46 points. With likely-Tropical Storm Ian forecast to hit Clemson this weekend, the number crashed all the way down to 40 points. Turns out, the weather is going to taper as Saturday goes on and winds below 15 mph. The expectation for this game to be a monsoon is in the past and this bet is all about capitalizing on market over-correction.

The movement gave over bettors an entire extra touchdown of space to breathe.

Clemson’s defense was exposed in the most exaggerated manner last week against Wake Forest, but the pass defense’s underlying numbers suggest this unit might not be as good as we think. Contrary to preseason expectations, you can score on Clemson. Their pass defense ranks 48th in passing success rate and they gave up over 300 yards passing to Louisiana Tech.

If either team’s offenses have a pulse and the weather is anything less of a total hurricane, the over should clear with room.

  • Brett’s bet: OVER 40 points (-110)
  • Best available number: ()

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Oklahoma State at Baylor

The situation of this game and line is eerily similar to Baylor’s road stint last week against Iowa State. While slight in nature, the line has moved from Oklahoma State +2.5 to Oklahoma State +2.

The bottom line is, the Pokes are the better football team. Aggregate power ratings (FPI, SP+, Sagarin, others) favor Oklahoma State by 4.5 points on the road and yet here we are staring down +2.5. If you’re more comfortable taking the points, do so, but I’m confident in their ability to win the game outright.

Baylor fields a strong defense, but that defense is markedly weaker against the pass than the run. The Bears are 72nd in passing success rate allowed and about league average in other passing metrics. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, is a much more prolific passing offense than rushing offense behind playmaking QB Spencer Sanders. It’s a game that plays to OKST’s strengths and what should be a winnable game for the Pokes.

(Note: I do understand the dangers of pairing “Spencer Sanders” and “winnable game.”)

  • Brett’s bet: Oklahoma State ML +112
  • Best available number:

Oklahoma at TCU

To speak candidly, I ran to the proverbial ticket counter when I saw Oklahoma open as a 6.5-point favorite against TCU. The Sooners are on an eight-game win streak over the Horned Frogs and this year’s unit in Fort Worth isn’t an overly-inspiring bunch. To date, TCU has played and beaten Colorado (130th in net EPA), FCS Tarleton State, and SMU (96th in net EPA). Now, they’re asked to open up conference play under a new head coach against Oklahoma.

TCU is also going to roll with two QBs in the game, starting Max Duggan and “rotating” in Chandler Morris off an injury. That comes from Coach Sonny Dykes himself. What’s the old adage about two QBs again?

To beat Oklahoma, TCU is going to need to score 35-42 points. Against the nation’s 24th-scoring defense, I have serious doubts.

The Sooners are also coming off another loss to Kansas State (count that three losses in the last four meetings!) and will be eager to get their legs back underneath them. Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners’ defense will be able to move the football at will and the defense is just good enough to slow down TCU’s two-QB attack.

Flat out, under a touchdown feels like a gift.

  • Brett’s bet: Oklahoma -6.5 (-110)
  • Best available number:

Virginia Tech at North Carolina

What’s the only unit in the ACC worse than Virginia Tech’s offense? North Carolina’s defense. When it comes to game-to-game variance and improvement, it’s much easier to turn things around offensively and have a good day than defensively. So far this season, North Carolina has allowed:

  • 24 points to Florida A&M
  • 61 points to Appalachian State
  • 28 points to Georgia State
  • 45 points to Notre Dame

Virginia Tech’s season high in scoring is 27, coming against both Boston College and Wofford. It’s reasonable to expect those numbers to be met or exceeded against North Carolina’s nonexistent defense. If the Hokies provide 27, North Carolina can comfortably cover the remaining 24 points. UNC’s budding star QB Drake Maye is fifth nationally in EPA and is tied for the nation lead in TD passes (16).

The other component to Virginia Tech’s offense is their propensity to cause havoc plays; turnovers, pick-sixes, special teams snafus– you name it. With forecast rain in Chapel Hill on Saturday, that increases the chances at havoc plays. In this game, there’s more ways to score than not, and 50.5 points seems like a discount.

  • Brett’s bet: OVER 50.5 points (-110)
  • Best available number: ()

Follow TheLines on Twitter for all college football odds and analysis, and best of luck with your college football Week 4 picks.

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Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

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