2023 College Football Passing Props: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye
In mid-July, FanDuel Sportsbook released a slew of regular season passing props ahead of the 2023 college football season. Among them are yards and touchdowns for the country’s highest-profile quarterbacks, such as reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, and Florida State’s Jordan Travis. Those three signal callers, and the other five listed, play for the biggest brands and the highest-flying offenses in college football. Let’s take a look to see if we can find any value in these early college football props.
Keep in mind, they aren’t available in every state with legal sports betting. Currently, just 11 states offer no-bars college prop betting while 10 other states banned betting on in-state team props. Moreover, 11 additional states ban college prop betting entirely. For a full rundown on each state’s allowances on college football betting, scroll to the bottom of this article.
Free Pick’Em Contests! Compete for prizes every day by entering our free betting games. MLB, NBA, NHL, and more!
College Football Passing Props: Regular Season TDs
| Player | Regular Season TDs | Price (Over/Under) |
|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 33.5 | -108/-118 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 33.5 | -108/-118 |
| Drake Maye | 27.5 | -108/-118 |
| Quinn Ewers | 26.5 | -112/-112 |
| Sam Hartman | 26.5 | -102/-124 |
| Bo Nix | 24.5 | -118/-108 |
| Jordan Travis | 24.5 | -112/-112 |
| Jayden Daniels | 18.5 | -112/-112 |
Williams and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. check in with the highest over/under for passing TDs with 33.5 each. Penix Jr. returns a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan. The Huskies also face six teams that ranked outside the top 110 in sack rate last season.
On the back of a hyper-efficient offense, Penix logged 29 regular season passing TDs — due in part to running backs Wayne Taulapapa and Cameron Davis combining for 24 scores on the ground.
FanDuel lines Maye for 27.5 passing TDs, a regression from his 35 regular season TDs a year ago. However, he likely lost the most this offseason among the group, including offensive coordinator Phil Longo (Wisconsin). The Tar Heels hired offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey, who ran a similar pace to Longo at UCF (23.5 seconds per play vs. 23.4). Maye’s top two targets — Josh Downs and Antoine Green — departed as well.
In each of his last two seasons, Sam Hartman seriously exceeded his 26.5 passing TD mark (35, 34). However, he transferred to Notre Dame, leaving Dave Clawson’s slow mesh system and downgrading in receiving corps. The Irish replaced OC Tommy Rees with an internal hire, Gerald Parker.
Travis brings the most back, not just of the group but, of almost anyone in the nation. Top-target Johnny Wilson returns, and Florida State added Keon Coleman in the transfer portal. As a low-volume passer to begin with, Travis has a more modest 24.5 regular season passing prop.
A Bet To Consider
Williams’ 33.5 regular season passing TDs immediately jumped off the page to me. The reigning Heisman winner tossed 34 regular season TDs last year. On top of that, Lincoln Riley-led QB have eclipsed 33.5 passing TDs in the regular season four times.
Additionally, the Trojans tacked three experienced starters along the offensive line and play seven teams outside the top-90 sack rate from a year ago. While there’s plenty of opportunities to stat-pad against poor competition (they don’t play a team ranked inside the top half of my power ratings until Oct. 14), there’s enough stiff competition toward the back half of the season to keep Williams in games longer. Even early-season games against Arizona and Colorado should constitute a bit of offense from the Trojans.
Defensively, USC brought in talented players. However, defensive coordinator Alex Grinch has never put out a good unit, and USC will have to score to win.
Should Williams want to vie for another Heisman Trophy — and keep his status as NFL Draft prospect No. 1 — then his volume will have to remain similar to 2022.
- Brett’s bet: Over 33.5 regular season passing TDs (-108)
College Football Passing Props: Regular Season Yards
| Player | Regular Season TDs | Price (Over/Under) |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 3,600.5 | -112/-112 |
| Caleb Williams | 3,500.5 | -118/-108 |
| Drake Maye | 3,100.5 | -112/-112 |
| Quinn Ewers | 3,000.5 | -112/-112 |
| Sam Hartman | 2,950.5 | -112/-112 |
| Bo Nix | 2,900.5 | -112/-112 |
| Jayden Daniels | 2,700.5 | -112/-112 |
| Jordan Travis | 2,675.5 | -112/-112 |
Much of the same reasonings behind the passing TDs props applies to the passing yards props. Nevertheless, yards are a more predictable stat than TDs. Penix edges out Williams for the top spot here due to having attempted 54 more passes last season in one fewer game.
Washington churned out the second-most efficient passing offense last season. Nearly all of those pieces return for this season. USC ranked No. 8 in passing EPA, but No. 1 in rushing EPA.
A Bet To Consider
It’s true that Maye loses Longo’s system and his top two targets. Downs delivered over 1,000 receiving yards in his past, and the combination of him and Green accounted for 42.3% of the receiving yards for UNC. However, the Tar Heels added Devontez Walker in the transfer portal (247Sports’ second-ranked WR). They return nine other players with at least 10 receptions as well.
Lindsey runs a similar tempo to Longo, too. While his system at UCF featured much more ground game particularly at QB, it was large in part due to personnel. There were times last year where Lindsey demanded John Rhys Plumlee to throw at least 30 passes (i.e. against FAU, East Carolina, Tulane).
Most importantly, UNC shored up the offensive line in the portal and the defense is still going to be pretty bad. A protected QB and a constant need to throw the ball to keep up should result in more solid production for Maye.
In short, I don’t believe the change from Longo to Lindsey, along with the departure of Downs, constitutes a 750-yard plummet from last year’s 3,800 yards passing in the regular season.
- Brett’s bet: Over 3,100.5 passing yards (-112)
Can I Bet On College Sports?
Check the table below to see if you’re able to bet on college football props at the best sports betting sites in your state.
| State | Legal Sports Betting? | Bet On College Sports? | Bet On College Props? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | No | ||
| Alaska | No | ||
| Arizona | Yes | Yes | No |
| Arkansas | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| California | No | ||
| Colorado | Yes | Yes | No |
| Connecticut | Yes | Yes, no in-state* | Yes, no in-state* |
| Delaware | Yes, Retail only | Yes, no in-state | Yes, no in-state |
| Florida | No | ||
| Georgia | No | ||
| Hawaii | No | ||
| Idaho | No | ||
| Illinois | Yes | Yes, in-person on in-state teams | Yes, no in-state |
| Indiana | Yes | Yes | Yes, no live props |
| Iowa | Yes | Yes | No |
| Kansas | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Kentucky | Sept. 7 in-person, Sept. 28 online | Yes | Yes |
| Louisiana | Yes, by parish | Yes | Yes |
| Maine | Legal, not yet live | ||
| Maryland | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Massachusetts | Yes | Yes, no in-state* | Yes, no in-state* |
| Michigan | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Minnesota | No | ||
| Mississippi | Yes, retail | Yes | Yes |
| Missouri | No | ||
| Montana | Yes, retail | Yes | Yes |
| Nebraska | Yes | Yes, no in-state | No |
| Nevada | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| New Hampshire | Yes | Yes, no in-state^ | Yes, no in-state^ |
| New Jersey | Yes | Yes, no in-state^ | Yes, no in-state^ |
| New Mexico | Yes, retail | Varies | Varies |
| New York | Yes | Yes, no in-state | No |
| North Carolina | Yes, retail | Yes | Yes |
| North Dakota | Yes, retail | Varies | Varies |
| Ohio | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Oklahoma | No | ||
| Oregon | Yes | No | No |
| Pennsylvania | Yes | Yes | No |
| Rhode Island | Yes | Yes, no in-state^ | Yes, no in-state^ |
| South Carolina | No | ||
| South Dakota | Yes, retail | Yes, no in-state | No |
| Tennessee | Yes | Yes | No |
| Texas | No | ||
| Utah | No | ||
| Vermont | Legal, not yet launched | ||
| Virginia | Yes | Yes, no in-state | No |
| Washington | Yes, retail | Yes, no in-state | Yes, no in-state |
| Washington, DC | Yes | Yes, no in-state^ | Yes, no in-state^ |
| West Virginia | Yes | Yes | No |
| Wisconsin | Yes, retail | Yes, no in-state | Yes, no in-state |
| Wyoming | Yes | Yes | Yes |
*No in-state betting on teams or props except when those teams are playing in tournaments.
^No betting on in-state teams OR games taking place inside the state.
Join TheLines.com free sports betting Discord channel — with nearly 4,100 members discussing college football props and much more.
RELATED ARTICLES
