American Odds, College Football Preview: Memphis, Tulane CFP Contenders?

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Written By Brett Gibbons | Last Updated
AAC odds

Once the shining role model of what a Group of Five Conference could achieve, the American Athletic Conference has been pillaged and stripped for nearly all its worth. Dangerous teams do still exist – namely Memphis, Tulane, and USF this past year – but the days of being the premier Go5 league are over. AAC odds show a pretty cut-and-dry set of tiers for 2024. The winner of this league likely has a strong case to clinch a College Football Playoff spot. After all, its champion the last five full seasons averaged 12 wins. But who might that representative be?

Click odds anywhere in this preview to place a bet on the AAC. Find odds to make the College Football Playoff here.

AAC Odds: To Win The Conference

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Memphis is a pretty clear favorite in the American this year. The Tigers last won an AAC title in 2019, their only championship game victory. They also made the American championship in 2018, but were defeated by UCF.

Tulane, UTSA, and USF make up a second tier of strong contenders. The Green Wave turn over a coaching staff and they and UTSA must replace the most prolific QBs in program history. USF is an up-and-comer who really garnered attention when they pitched a 45-0 shutout over Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl.

Rice, ECU, North Texas, and Army create a buffer between the contenders and longshots. The Owls, Pirates, and Mean Green add starting QBs in the transfer portal while Army debuts in the American this year. The remaining six comprise true longshots; Temple makes up an extreme longshot, being priced at a rare 350-1 for its conference future.

Odds To Make The College Football Playoff: American

All other teams are priced 100-1 or longer.

AAC Odds: Projected Wins, Win Totals

Projected wins below are derived from aggregate power ratings, including SP+, FPI, and more. Win totals are pulled from FanDuel Sportsbook as of July 26.

TeamProj. WinsWin TotalPrice
Memphis Tigers8.79.5+138/-170
UTSA Roadrunners8.78.5+110/-134
Tulane Green Wave7.57.5-148/+120
USF Bulls6.37.5+112/-138
Rice Owls6.46.5-144/+118
East Carolina Pirates6.36.5+102/-124
UAB Blazers6.26.5+122/-150
FAU Owls6.76.5+108/-132
North Texas Mean Green6.75.5-134/+110
Army Black Knights5.35.5-150/+128
Tulsa Golden Hurricane5.64.5-118/-104
Navy Midshipmen4.45.5+120/-148
Charlotte 49ers2.93.5-142/+116
Temple Owls1.92.5+102/-124

AAC Power Rankings

AAC Odds Graph

Table Key (all ranks except power rankings are national):

  • Rank (Power ranking, conference)
  • Proj. Wins (Projected total wins)
  • Return (Returning production, total)
  • PPD (Points per drive scored)
  • PPDA (Points per drive allowed)
  • L5 (Last five years recruiting average, national)

The AAC Odds Favorite: Memphis Tigers

AAC odds: Favorites


Odds to win AAC: Memphis Tigers +4000

Of all the players returning and coordinators inbound, the biggest story with Memphis this year is a large cash infusion from Memphis-based FedEx into the NIL program. That money became immediately apparent as the Tigers landed two Power Conference stars in LB Elijah Herring (Tennessee, leading tackler) and RB Mario Anderson (South Carolina). Dynamic QB Seth Henigan – a player plenty of teams would want – decided to stay put.

The offense might be the best its ever been this year. Henigan has a cast of weapons to throw to, namely Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee. Former North Texas and Auburn WR Jyaire Shorter (22.7 career average yards per catch) are added to the fold, back for a seventh college season. In total, 30 transfers are inbound this season, bringing the two-year total for new players to the program up to 96!

There’s no question that the offense will be explosive. Defensively, however, Memphis has been no better than atrocious for a half-decade. They promoted LBs coach Jordon Hankins to defensive coordinator just ahead of the Liberty Bowl. Overall, he called a sound game, holding Iowa State to 26 points (13% under the season average of 30). The Tigers went 4-3 in games in which they allowed 30+ points, including a 45-42 win over UNT and a 59-50 (!!!) win over USF.

Memphis’ roster talent isn’t a cause for pessimism. The schedule, though, is. The Tigers host Troy and visit Florida State at a rest disadvantage in the non-conference before playing body-blow Navy (again, with a rest disadvantage). In league play, Memphis handles the next top four AAC contenders (Tulane, UTSA, USF, Rice). Overall, its schedule is second-toughest in the conference.

AAC Odds: The Contenders

Tulane Green Wave
Odds to win AAC: Memphis Tigers +4000

For undergoing a complete turnover, Tulane could certainly be in a worse position than it is today. Willie Fritz leaves for Houston after leading the Green Wave to a 23-5 record the last two years. The program’s all-time leading passer, Michael Pratt, departs for the NFL. In response, Tulane hired Troy head coach Jon Sumrall, who also went 23-4 in the last two seasons, along with almost his entire Troy staff.

Former blue-chip QB Ty Thompson transfers in from Oregon and is the likely starter. However, Kai Horton has quality starting experience with the Green Wave, nearly leading Tulane to an upset of Ole Miss in Week 2 while Pratt sat with an injury. RB Makhi Hughes returns off a 1,300-yard rushing season, and former USC WR Mario Williams and Alabama WR Shazz Preston transfer in. Williams is especially interesting, as he popped as a possible No. 1 WR for Caleb Williams and the Trojans before being usurped by Biletnikoff winner Jordan Addison.

In total, 10 transfers are expected to be Week 1 starters for Tulane.

Seven players who started last year – be it at Tulane or elsewhere – could start on defense. Sumrall and inbound DC Greg Gasparato orchestrated a formidable stop unit at Troy, posting back-to-back top-10 points per drive (PPD) seasons. Tulane’s defense was solid last year (38th PPD), but it could be the shining star of the AAC this year. Its combination of talent and scheme is the league’s best.

The non-conference slate is tough. Tulane hosts Kansas State (who they beat in 2022!) and visits Oklahoma and Louisiana (with a rest disadvantage). The Green Wave plays Memphis and USF, but avoid UTSA and East Carolina.

UTSA Roadrunners
Odds to win AAC: UTSA Roadrunners +50000 on BetMGM

A familiar name to NFL fans takes over the helm for UTSA: Owen McCown (son of Josh). In his Roadrunner QB1 debut, McCown threw for 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns (but also two picks). He was shaky to begin before settling in. He returns alongside the top three rushers from last year, who combined for 1,800 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns. Top WR De’Corian “J.T.” Clark could return after tearing his ACL last year, but as of mid-July, he wasn’t fully cleared to play.

Jeff Traylor did double and then triple down on his commitment to UTSA, passing up rumored interest from Texas A&M and Houston. He was able to navigate a rocky 2023 that began with a 1-3 record that included a disappointing loss to Army.

Departures are the story for UTSA. Prolific QB Frank Harris graduated, star EDGE Trey Moore moved on to Texas, top CB Kam Alexander transferred to Oregon, and the neither of the top two receivers from last season return. Potential breakout DL Nick Booker-Brown won’t play for UTSA after being dismissed for an arrest. The cupboard’s not bare, not by a long shot, but these key departures could mean a step backward from a combined 32-7 record the last three years.

Talent exists on defense, namely OLB Jimmori Robinson. Six starters return each on offense and defense, including three offensive linemen and three linebackers.

UTSA avoids Tulane and USF, but handles Texas and rival Texas State outside of league play. That Week 2 showdown with the Bobcats, The Battle Of I-35, could prove to have serious ramifications when it comes to the Group of Five CFP berth.

USF Bulls
Odds to win AAC: South Florida Bulls +20000 on BetMGM

Head coach Alex Golesh made an immediate impact on USF. He brought the Bulls to a 7-6 finish, including a 45-0 blowout of Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl, after a combined 4-29 run over the prior three seasons. The offense popped thanks to the system Golesh ran learned at Tennessee and improved throughout the year. Freshman QB Byrum Brown was the breakout star. Brown was one of just two players to throw for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000, the other being Heisman winner Jayden Daniels.

USF’s biggest problem was the offensive line. Brown was sacked 43 times, third-most in the country; that included inexcusable outings of seven sacks against Florida A&M and four games of five or more sacks. The number did gradually improve throughout the year and four starters on that offensive line return in 2024. Inexperience was the primary culprit, between both the linemen and Brown himself.

RB Nay’Quan Wright returns after rushing for over 800 yards, as does all-conference WR Sean Atkins (1,054 yards, seven touchdowns). For a second-straight year, USF returns a top-10 number in production (80%). USF hosts Miami in the non-conference and visits Alabama and Southern Miss. In AAC play, the Bulls handle Tulane and Memphis in consecutive games (with a bye in between), but avoid UTSA and East Carolina.

The biggest hurdle for Golesh, Brown & Co. this year is that the secret’s out. USF is no longer the plucky underdog (they were +4 ‘dogs against Navy in Week 5!). Expectations are a real burden, particularly on a young corps like USF.

AAC Odds: The Middle Class

With conference realignment inflating conferences to their largest sizes ever, we have to break them down more thoroughly than ever.

North Texas Mean Green
Odds to win AAC: North Texas Mean Green +20000 on BetMGM

Few teams have produced an equally entertaining but underwhelming product on the field as North Texas the last five years. A top-25 offense in PPD coupled with the 128th defense in PPD led to a mediocre 5-7 season. UNT beat Louisiana Tech, Abilene Christian (FCS), Temple, Tulsa, and UAB – teams that combined to finish 9-36 (.200) against FBS competition. In losses, they allowed a whopping 43.3 points.

UNT did take measures to stop the bleeding, bringing in three Power Conference transfers in the secondary: B.J. Allen Jr. (Texas), X’Avion Brice (Texas), and Isheem Young (Ole Miss, Iowa State). Four starters in the front seven return, and Jake Shipley (Oregon) was added to the portal. However, given the extremely explosive and up-tempo nature of the offense, UNT’s defense will always play at a disadvantage.

Offensively, the Mean Green landed TCU QB Chandler Morris, who was the intended Week 1 starter before getting hurt the last two years. Unfortunately, they have to replace their top three rushers and three of their top four receivers. North Texas’ 50% returning roster production ranks 104th nationally.

The schedule is winnable in league play; UNT opens with Tulsa and closes with Temple. Though UNT likely takes its lumps against Memphis, Tulane, and UTSA, they may be favored in as many as six games this season.

FAU Owls
Odds to win AAC: Florida Atlantic Owls +50000 on BetMGM

FAU may be in for a rude awakening this season. The Tom Herman experience got off to a rough start as the Owls finished 4-8, beating just three FBS teams (two in the bottom 20 nationally). This year, they return just 44% of roster production from last season (121st) and turn over at QB… again. This time, FAU brings in Marshall QB Cam Fancher, who finished 68th out of 87 QBs in passer rating (min. 300 dropbacks), 11 TDs to 11 INTs, and just a 7.7 average depth of target (aDOT).

An upside to Fancher is a dual-threat ability, highlighted in a 113 rushing yard outing against Arkansas State in Week 13 and a 99-yard game against ODU in Week 5. However, his top rusher returning accumulated just 65 yards last season and his top receiver caught 10 passes. Four of five starters on the offensive line have to be replaced and two expected starters are sophomores or younger.

While the offense struggled last season, the defense played pretty well. It finished 49th in PPD, and six starters are back. The secondary adds 31 collegiate starts from Maine transfer Kahzir Brown and a Power transfer in Phillip Dunnam (Indiana). LB Eddie Williams returns after missing the season due to a Week 4 injury. DC Roc Bellantoni should again be able to produce a strong defense.

FAU has a manageable non-conference slate with Michigan State, FIU, UConn, and Wagner (FCS). In league play, they avoid Memphis, Tulane, and Rice. The final three games of the year feature Temple, Charlotte, and Tulsa. Should FAU win three of its first nine games – a doable feat – they have the fast track to go bowling.

An AAC Longshot To Consider:

East Carolina returned virtually nothing for 2023 after a solid 2022. Perhaps most concerning was the QB room – Alex Finn and Mason Garcia combined for seven passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and an abysmal 53.4% completion. As a result, ECU finished dead last in points per drive and 128th in EPA. They beat just one FBS opponent, FAU, in a bizarre 22-7 Week 11 upset that included the Owls going 4/17 on third down and averaging 4.1 yards per pass.

This year, ECU brings in a pair of QBs: Jake Garcia (Miami by way of Missouri) and Katin Houser (Michigan State). RB Rahjai Harris is likely the most effective offensive player returning. Transfer WRs Winston Wright (Florida State) and Anthony Smith (NC State) bring life into a receiving room that was among the nation’s worst last season. The injection of talent into the offense should improve the unit tenfold; however, the bar set last year was about as low as it gets.

Two-star defensive linemen highlight returning starters. EDGE Chad Stephens and DT D’Anta Johnson could both wind up on the all-conference list come season’s end after combining for 13 TFLs and 7.5 sacks last year. Corner Shavon Revel defended 11 passes and allowed just one touchdown in coverage last season. The defense did finish 50th in PPD surrendered and should again be formidable this year.

ECU avoids both Memphis and Tulane while also landing the expected bottom feeders of the league, Temple, Charlotte, and Tulsa. However, the Pirates only go as far as their revamped QB room takes them.

Rather than backing them to win the conference, I’m looking to bet early spreads and focus on the win total.

An AAC Team To Fade: Rice Owls

AAC odds Rice

What’s there not to like about Rice this year? Coming off back-to-back bowl bids (the latter being earned) and adding 3,000-yard passer E.J. Warner could be cause for excitement. This team has to improve and go bowling again… right?

First, let’s identify what E.J. Warner is. He’s undersized (6-foot, 190 pounds) with limited rushing upside (22 rushing attempts, 12 scrambles). Warner is an efficient passer with an exceptionally quick processor and release (2.4 average seconds to throw). But he also had 23 turnover-worthy throws, per PFF, third most in the country. Thirteen of those turned into interceptions, but given the 43.5% turnover-worthy throws not intercepted, Warner was pretty lucky. Even Power Conference veteran J.T. Daniels completed just 63% of his passes last year with a much more dynamic receiving room.

Rice is a limited team with a limited roster and limitations on its transfer and recruiting ceiling thanks to being an exceptional academic institution.

Its touchdown machine, Luke McCaffrey, is off to the NFL. The top rising receiver is RB Dean Connors, who should be a focal point in this offense. UCLA transfer Matt Skyes is the receiver to note and does not offer the same upside as McCaffrey.

The Owls handle Memphis, Tulane, and UTSA – all on the road, at a rest disadvantage, or both – plus USF and at Army (rest disadvantage). Even a should-be non-conference win against UConn comes after back-to-back games against UTSA and Tulane, and is played on the road.

While the odds suggest Rice is the fifth choice in the American, it’s more likely this team reverts back to a 5-7 or worse season and sits Bowl Season out.

The Newbie

AAC odds Army

Army Black Knights
Odds to win AAC: Army Black Knights +180 on DraftKings

For the first time in 20 years – and just the second time since 1891 – the Army Black Knights play in a conference. Their annual rivalry with Navy will remain a non-conference contest, but being played after conference championship week could cause some theoretical obstacles down the road. Army announced its move to the AAC in November, 2023.

Last year, to combat the ban on cut blocks, Army decided to modernize its offense. The result? The 118th-ranked offense in points per drive and 75th in rushing EPA. Midway through the year, Jeff Monken made the switch back to a more traditional flexbone option. That resulted in a four-game win streak to close the season, including over Air Force and, most importantly, Navy. At 6-6, Army took the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy but missed a bowl game (they had two wins over FCS opponents).

QB Bryson Daily returns, as does fullback Kanye Udoh and RB Tyrell Robinson. The biggest loss to the offense is 260-pound fullback Jakobi Buchanan, who graduated from West Point after last season. Three starters along the offensive line also return. However, nearly the entire defense needs to be remade; Army’s 35.6% returning production on that side of the ball ranks 128th. The service academies are no strangers to low-returning production, but it’s worth noting.

QBs coach and run game coordinator Cody Worley was promoted to offensive coordinator. He’s been with West Point since 2020 and knows the flexbone option to perfection. In its first season in the AAC, Army avoids Memphis, Tulane, and USF. However, its non-conference slate includes Air Force and Notre Dame.

With Navy already on the conference slate, Army’s option offense isn’t as big an advantage as it could be. However, with six members just joining last season, they still have a leg up on most of its competition.

Everyone Else

AAC odds Navy

Charlotte 49ers
Odds to win AAC: Charlotte 49ers +50000 on BetMGM

Biff Poggi had a project. In his first year with Charlotte, the 49ers finished 3-9. This year, he attacked the portal, bringing in Florida QB Max Brown, Iowa State RB Cartevious Norton, and 17 other Power Conference transfers. Brown is a major step up at QB; last year’s four arms that threw a pass combined for seven touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Norton should also be a notable improvement for a run game that didn’t feature a 500-yard rusher. However, with a non-conference slate of James Madison, North Carolina, and Indiana – plus an AAC slate featuring five of the top projected teams – Charlotte’s ceiling is extremely limited.

Navy Midshipmen
Odds to win AAC: Navy Midshipmen +800 on BetMGM

Since QB Malcolm Perry graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy, the Midshipmen are just 16-30 and fired Ken Niumatalolo. Though Navy finished 5-7 last year, a national 42-3 loss to Notre Dame, loss to Temple, 59-14 loss to SMU, and eventual loss to Army marred the season as a disaster. QB play was a dumpster fire. Four different players started, mostly due to injury, and none were all that effective. Blake Horvath and six of the top seven rushers on the team do return. The two departures are both at QB, and both were the most athletic options. As the team transitions under Brian Newberry, Navy could be in for another rough season; like Army, its non-conference slate features Notre Dame and Air Force.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Odds to win AAC: Tulsa Golden Hurricane +50000 on BetMGM

QB Kirk Francis missed most of the season last year, giving way to RS freshman Cardell Williams. Though athletic, Williams managed just two touchdown passes over his last four starts and completed fewer than 60% of his passes on the season. Whichever QB gets the nod – it appears Francis will – gets a talented receiving room full of explosion. If the offensive line holds up (only two starters return), Tulsa’s offense could be a lot of fun. But defensively, the team is a mess. The Golden Hurricane finished 112th in PPD and allowed the 10th-most points on average on opposing drives of 80+ yards. In short, they couldn’t get off the field. Just 36.7% of production returns on that side of the ball (127th).

Temple Owls
Odds to win AAC: Temple Owls +50000 on BetMGM

Out goes E.J. Warner, and in comes… well, not a lot. Temple opened with just a 2.5 regular season win total and brings up the rear in most power rankings. Upwards of seven transfers could start on defense alone – a defense that finished 127th in PPD. Even with Warner (6,100 passing yards last two years), Temple finished 98th and 106th in PPD. Maryland RB Antwain Littleton could provide some pop to the offense. However, with no FCS opponents on the slate, Temple has a good chance of not being favored a single time this season. All the Owls are trying to do is avoid finishing last in the country. This is likely it for Stan Drayton & Co.

UAB Blazers
Odds to win AAC: UAB Blazers +50000 on BetMGM

A year into the Trent Dilfer experience, the doubts appear to be validating. UAB went 4-8, allowing 40+ points in six of eight losses (allowed 30 in all losses and in all but two games). The offense clicked under QB Jacob Zeno – Dilfer took what defenses gave him, which, in college football, scores lots of points. Short passes, RPOs, and screens dominated the offense, resulting in plenty of YAC for everyone on board. Unfortunately, a defense that ranks dead last in PPD led to lots of losses. But Dilfer didn’t make a change. Rather, he lost three defensive starters post-spring to the portal. This year, we can almost assuredly expect more of the same from UAB.

The Blazers catch Memphis, Tulane, and USF – all teams capable of scoring 40+ on UAB.

All-Conference Team

QB: Seth Henigan (Memphis), Byrum Brown (USF)
RB: Makhi Hughes (Tulane), Anthony Watkins (Tulsa)
WR: Mario Williams (Tulane), Roc Taylor (Memphis), Sean Atkins (USF)
TE: Oscar Cardenas (UTSA)
OT: Rashad Green (Tulane), Connor McMahon (Navy)
IOL: Brady Small (Army), Zane Herring (USF), Xavier Hill (Memphis)

DL: Chad Stephens (East Carolina), D’Anta Johnson (East Carolina), Patrick Jenkins (Tulane), Brandon Brown (UTSA)
LB: Colin Ramos (Navy), Jesus Mechado (Tulane), Chandler Martin (Memphis)
CB: Dontae Balfour (Charlotte), Aamaris Brown (USF)
SAF: Gabe Taylor (Rice), Rayuan Lane (Navy)

Coaching & Coordinator Changes In The American

Jon Sumrall, Tulane: Willie Fritz managed a staggering 23-5 record the last two seasons with Tulane and won the Cotton Bowl over USC in 2022. How do you match that kind of production? How about hiring Sumrall from Troy, who went 23-4 in his first two years as a head coach? He brings over a majority of his Troy coaching staff to pick up where the Green Wave left off. Of course, there’s work to do replacing prolific players, but Sumrall is perhaps the best hire Tulane could have made.

Cody Worley, OC, Army: In 2023, Army tried to move away from the flexbone option due to NCAA restrictions on cut blocks. The experiment failed. So, Jeff Monken decided to go back to what works. Worley has been on the staff since 2020, working with quarterbacks and coordinating the run game. After making the adjustment midyear, Army won its last four games, including matches over Air Force and Navy.

Jordon Hankins, DC, Memphis: It’s been a long time since Memphis has been known for a stout defense. Last season in losses, the Tigers allowed 34.3 points per game; they also won four games while allowing 30+ points. Hankins has been on the Memphis staff since 2021 after spending a decade with UT Martin. This is Hankins’ first stint as an FBS coordinator.

Check out every American coaching and coordinator change this offseason!


Photo by Associated Press

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