College Football National Championship Odds: 5 Teams Moving Up & Down

Week 0 of the college football season is just a week away. All offseason, national championship odds have been on the move, reacting to transfers, market correction, coaching changes, and more. The top of odds boards feature a familiar set of teams: Georgia (), Alabama (), Ohio State (), and Michigan (). Notably, this is the final year with a four-team College Football Playoff (CFP).

But which teams moved the most in odds to win the national championship this offseason? Let’s take a final look ahead of the start of the season.

National Championship Odds Risers

Odds below were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook. Opening marks were gauged on Jan. 9, 2023 and the most recent numbers on Aug. 17, 2023. Compare full college football odds from the best sports betting sites below.

Georgia Bulldogs: +300 to +220

The two-time defending national championship seeks to become the first three-peat champion since Minnesota in the mid-1930’s. Apparently, 3-1 was too short an opening mark. At +300, Georgia had a 25% implied probability to win their third straight title and, at +220, that jumps to 31.3%. The move didn’t take long, with the Bulldogs cutting their odds by May.

Since their opening mark, Georgia made a few changes. The Bulldogs replaced Todd Monken at offensive coordinator, who left for the Ravens, and added two top receivers in the transfer portal. They draw a favorable schedule, one that ranks 54th nationally and the easiest in the SEC by 20 spots.

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LSU Tigers: +2000 to +1200

Although the number itself looks more impressive than Georgia’s 80-cent jump, LSU’s change in odds wasn’t as stark. At their 20-1 opening mark, LSU had a 4.8% implied win rate of the national championship. At +1200, that move up to 7.7%. It’s still the second-largest move up in odds despite being under a 3% move.

LSU hit the transfer portal hard after futures opened. They landed All-Pac 12 linebacker Omar Speights and at least two starters in the secondary. Quarterback Jayden Daniels is also one of the biggest preseason Heisman movers, now sitting at . Should the Tigers run the table — or, at least, go 11-1 — they have the resume to make a strong CFP case.

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National Championship Odds Fallers

Tennessee Volunteers: +2000 to +3000

Tennessee’s movement down odds boards isn’t alarmingly stark, just from 4.8% to a 3.2% win rate. This is due to simple market correction — the Vols didn’t lose any critical pieces via the portal, although offensive coordinator Alex Golesh left to coach USF.

Tennessee perpetually plays one of the toughest schedules in the country, locked into rivalries with Alabama and Georgia. This season, the Vols also draw LSU and play the seventh-toughest schedule in the country (only aided by a forgiving non-conference slate). They lose Heisman-caliber QB Hendon Hooker, instead replacing him with gunslinger Joe Milton, as well as Biletnikoff Award winner Jalin Hyatt.

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TCU Horned Frogs: +5000 to +20000

Last year’s biggest surprise opened a little too rich in futures odds for this year. Granted, FanDuel opened these numbers before TCU took a 65-7 beating in the 2023 national championship. TCU only returns 41% of a prolific offense that took them to 12-0 in the regular season and over Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl CFP semifinal.

Despite an alarming quadrupling in their numerical odds, TCU’s implied win probability shifted a meager 1.5% (from 2% to 0.5%). The Horned Frogs went 6-1 in one score games – far from a repeatable mark – and did what most folks would consider “just enough” to win game after game. The offense was very good and the defense was solid, although neither unit was elite. TCU was a true national championship outlier in power rating and just about every metric.

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Texas Longhorns: +1800 to +2500

Another small slip in odds, Texas drops from 5.3% to 3.9% implied probability to win the national championship. However, its footing — originally behind just six teams — is falling. The Longhorns have been overtaken by Penn State and Florida State, with Tennessee and Notre Dame right there, too.

Despite falling down national championship odds boards, Texas maintains their hold as the favorite to win the Big 12 (). The Longhorns do have the resume to make the CFP should they go unbeaten or 11-1, bolstered by a non-conference matchup at Alabama, plus drawing all other five projected top teams in the Big 12.

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2024 National Championship Odds

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