College Football National Championship Odds: Biggest Offseason Movers

Written By Brett Gibbons on August 16, 2022
college football championship odds

College Football National Championship odds have been on the move all offseason long. The bulk of action on team futures is likely in the rearview mirror. With less than two weeks until the season kicks off, which teams saw their odds shorten and lengthen the most?

College Football Week 1 odds for every game on the schedule

College Football National Championship Odds Risers

Odds were taken at three points this offseason: Opening (Jan. 11), mid-offseason (May 1), and preseason (Aug. 16).

Ohio State Buckeyes: +800 to +300

No one’s implied probability jumped more than Ohio State’s this offseason. Shortly after opening at +800 (11.1% probability to win the National Championship), their price dropped to +500 (16.7%). Steam continued the Buckeyes’ way throughout the summer months, dropping their price further to +300 (25%). Overall, their implied probability jumped more than 225%.

It was clear the market saw the Buckeyes’ initial line to be a misprice. By the time opening odds came out, Ohio State had hired DC Jim Knowels and didn’t land any game-breaking transfers. This line movement is pure market adjustment.

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USC Trojans: +8000 to +2000

USC’s title odds also moved thanks to a pretty extreme market reaction. Theirs, however, is the result of snowballing expectations for a Trojan squad packed with names and offensive talent. The biggest jump in odds came after Biletnikoff Award-winning receiver Jordan Addison announced his transfer to USC from Pitt on May 19.

Large as the number move seems, USC’s implied win probability only moved from 1.23% (+8000) to 4.76% (+2000).

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Texas A&M Aggies: +4000 to +2500

In the grand scheme of things, Texas A&M’s increased win probability is pretty inconsequential. They opened with a 2.44% probability to win the title, which has since grown to 3.85%. However, for early-offseason bettors of the Aggies, this is substantial closing line value (CLV). Despite the movement on their national title odds, Texas A&M’s SEC Championship odds have slightly lengthened from a +1600 opening mark to +1800 in mid-August (now ).

The market moved their number for a different reason even than USC or Ohio State; it’s likely in response to a historic recruiting class and the overestimation of the impact of that class in 2022. A&M’s biggest jump in title odds came between opening (Jan. 11) and mid-offseason (May 1).

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College Football National Championship Odds Fallers

Georgia Bulldogs: +200 to +350

While the price of Georgia’s National Championship odds doesn’t appear to have moved all that much, they have the biggest decline in win probability in the country. The defending champions opened with a 33.3% implied probability to repeat, but that dropped to 22.2% by mid-August. The weight of what the Dawgs lost in the NFL Draft dropped their odds to the +350 low-water mark by May 1 and they’ve remained steady since then.

Georgia also notably accepted zero transfers this offseason. SEC-rival Alabama landed five high-profile, plug-and-play starters via the portal, putting a dampener on Georgia’s outlook.

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Oregon Ducks: +4000 to +12000

What’s interesting about the extreme movement on Oregon’s national title odds is that the opening mark was made following Mario Cristobal’s departure. What’s also interesting is that– despite their odds lengthening three times over– the Ducks’ win probability dropped 1.6% (2.44% to 0.83%).

Starting RB Travis Dye transferred away from Eugene after odds opened, but the loss of Dye doesn’t account for the entire movement. This is a combination of the market being bearish overall on the Ducks and also the potential rapid ascension of Pac-12 rival USC.

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North Carolina TarHeels: +8000 to +20000

UNC’s odds movement, like Texas A&M’s, are pretty inconsequential on the big picture. The frightening jump from +8000 to +20000 only represents a movement from 1.23% to 0.50% in win probability. However, this movement could be applied to other aspects of UNC’s 2022 outlook like their ACC odds and win totals.

The TarHeels lost a pair of starting offensive weapons– lead RB British Brooks and senior WR Antoine Green are both out for the season. A bullish outlook on Miami (FL) and a growing optimism for Pitt may also have contributed to their odds moving.

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College Football National Championship odds

Brett Gibbons Avatar
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Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

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