College Football National Championship Betting Market Report: Is Michigan The “Sharp” Side?

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Written By Brett Gibbons | Last Updated
national championship odds movement

The 2023 college football season comes to a close Monday. The Michigan Wolverines (14-0) take on the Washington Huskies (14-0) in the National Championship Game in Houston. Although a good chunk of action has yet to come into betting sites as of Sunday, some National Championship odds movement paints a picture of what we might get Monday night. For those looking to be on the “sharp” side of the game, where might that be?

Note: Odds and betting splits are ever-changing. All numbers in this article are accurate as of Friday morning, Jan. 5, and are subject to change. TheLines.com is also hosting a free college football contest with a top prize valued at $100.

National Championship Odds: Michigan Vs. Washington

Compare Michigan vs. Washington odds from the best sports betting sites below. Click on odds anywhere to place a bet.

It didn’t take long after opening for Michigan to get a half-point nudge. The total also jumped, moving up from 54.5 points to 56.5 at the time of writing. That move through 55 points marks the most significant jump, with almost 4% of all college football games in the last five years landing on 55 points.

As of Friday, Michigan appears to be the sharper side. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Michigan commands just 39% of bets, but the line hasn’t moved away from the Wolverines. The National Championship is one of very few games where public action may influence the line. However, with lower limits early in the week, the 61% action on Washington hasn’t been deemed sharp enough to move in the Huskies’ direction.

Last year, Georgia saw a massive influx of action just hours before kickoff. The Bulldogs set a championship and bowl record in a 65-7 blowout of TCU. Late movement on either team – particularly in an event with as high a handle as this – is an excellent indicator of a winner.

Watch for the number to be on the move closer to kickoff as sharp groups get involved.

  • Opening odds: Michigan -4, O/U 54.5
  • Best current odds: Michigan , O/U
  • Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord with more than 4,000 community members and our staff sharing betting ideas daily. Go to the #roles server to get push notifications to the Discord app from TheLines.com staff when they lock in a bet.

Favorites Dominate Recent Championship Games

Each of the last four National Championship favorites covered their spreads. Not only did the favorites cover, but comfortably so, with the last four-point differentials being 58, 15, 28, and 17. Prior to 2019, Alabama was favored in four straight championship games, covering none of them and losing two outright. Notably, Ohio State in 2014 won the championship over Oregon as +6.5 underdogs.

Since 1999, favorites of -6 or more are just 4-10 against the spread with eight outright losses (those favorites began 1-5 outright since the introduction of the BCS). Favorites priced between -3 and -6 saw much more success, going 5-2 against the spread (71.4%) and losing just once outright (Tennessee, 1999).

In the CFP era, underdogs are 5-4 ATS (55.6%) and 3-6 outright (33.3%). Michigan’s mark of -4.5 at time of writing is tied for the second-lowest spread since the inception of the CFP.

Championship games have been points, with seven of nine title games going over their listed point total. This year’s game features the second-lowest total in the last five years.

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