College Football Longshots: 5 Biggest Underdogs To Win National Title
When it comes to college football longshots, perception often outweighs reality. The FBS system is consistently criticized for being a two- or three-team race, with Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State winning the title seemingly every year. While Nick Saban’s Alabama teams won their fair share of titles in the past two decades, there have only been two betting favorites to win the college football championship since 2002.
Below, we’ll look at the five biggest college football longshots to win the national title since 2002. Over this duration, college football has experienced both the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) and College Football Playoff (CFP) eras.
All odds are pulled from data at Sports Reference.
5. Ohio State Buckeyes, 2002: +1900
2001 was a challenging year for Ohio State. The Buckeyes welcomed Jim Tressell as head coach, who went just 7-5 in his first year in Columbus. Naturally, Ohio State wasn’t heavily favored for the 2002 BCS Championship, though they did place 13th in the preseason AP poll. Instead, they rattled off a 14-0 perfect season and sealed the program’s first title since 1970.
Going into the title game, the Miami Hurricanes were on a 34-game win streak and featured one of the most talent-heavy rosters in college football history. As a result, they were firm 12-point favorites in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl (serving as the BCS Championship game). After two overtimes, Ohio State pulled off the upset. It was deemed one of the biggest in college football history.
4.USC Trojans, 2003: +2000
The Trojans lost 2002 Heisman winner Carson Palmer to the NFL and promoted talented quarterback Matt Leinart. They were also scheduled to face a demanding schedule, starting the season at No. 6 Auburn. USC shut the Tigers out en route to a 12-1 finish and a Rose Bowl victory over No. 4 Michigan. Leinart threw 38 touchdowns that season, third in the nation. He would also win the 2004 Heisman following the Trojans’ championship season.
The preseason favorite, Oklahoma (+450), produced the 2003 Heisman winner, Jason White, but dropped its final two games. USC was dominant all year long, ranking fifth in scoring offense (41.1 points per game) and 17th in scoring defense (18.4 points allowed per game). But like many others, it was written off as a college football longshot following Palmer’s departure.
3. LSU Tigers, 2019: +3300
The 2019 LSU Tigers roster wasn’t dissimilar to the 2018 squad, which finished 10-3 and 15th in the AP poll. They had most of the pieces in place, including Joe Burrow. However, the offensive philosophy led Burrow to throw just 16 touchdowns on the season. Enter Joe Brady. Brady pushed Burrow and the offense to new levels, and Burrow would throw a record 60 touchdowns the following season.
Everything about the 2019 LSU Tigers was dominant. Following their 41-16 decimation of Clemson in the national championship, that LSU team would be mentioned in the same breath as other all-time great teams. When it comes down to it, this was one of the best college football teams of all time. Unlike the other all-timers, no one saw this team coming.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes, 2014: +4000
The inaugural College Football Playoff was one to remember (unless you’re a fan of Alabama). Star quarterback Braxton Miller announced his change to receiver after suffering an injury the year before. In comes freshman J.T. Barrett, who also went down late in the season. Ohio State controversially made the fourth seed in the CFB over Baylor and TCU, both of which were loudly decried as being the better teams.
The Buckeyes were down to their third-string QB, Cardelle Jones, and the rest is history. Superstar Ezekiel Elliott led OSU to a major upset over No. 1 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, who was favored by 7.5 points. They would then boat race Marcus Mariota and Oregon in the National Championship off Elliott’s 264 rushing yards and four touchdowns. It’s one of the great underdog stories in all of sports.
1. Auburn Tigers, 2010: +5000
The only team capable of topping the 2014 Buckeyes in terms of underdog story is the 2010 Auburn Tigers. The ’10 Tigers started transfer quarterback Cam Newton after an 8-5 campaign. Newton wasn’t listed on the preseason Heisman odds but exploded onto the scene. He combined for 51 touchdowns (21 rushing) and took home the Heisman Trophy.
Auburn ran over No. 12 South Carolina, No. 12 Arkansas, No. 6 LSU, No. 9 Alabama, No. 18 South Carolina (SEC Championship), and finally No. 2 Oregon. It was a run rivaling the 2019 LSU schedule and has been unmatched. While the BCS Championship Game was hardly a fireworks show, Auburn got the job done on the back of a tough defense and pulled off the biggest underdog championship in college football of the last two decades.
Past National Championship winner preseason odds
| Year | Team | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Alabama | +240 |
| 2019 | LSU | +3300 |
| 2018 | Clemson | +400 |
| 2017 | Alabama* | +250 |
| 2016 | Clemson | +700 |
| 2015 | Alabama | +700 |
| 2014 | Ohio State | +4000 |
| 2013 | Florida State | +1600 |
| 2012 | Alabama | +550 |
| 2011 | Alabama | +600 |
| 2010 | Auburn | +5000 |
| 2009 | Alabama | +1200 |
| 2008 | Florida | +600 |
| 2007 | LSU | +800 |
| 2006 | Florida | +1000 |
| 2005 | Texas | +800 |
| 2004 | USC* | +300 |
| 2003 | USC | +2000 |
| 2002 | Ohio State | +1900 |
*Indicates preseason favorite
Longshots In Other Sports
- Six Biggest Longshots To Win NBA Finals
- Six Biggest NHL Longshots To Win Stanley Cup
- The 10 Biggest Longshot Wins In Sports Betting History
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