Ole Miss vs. Georgia Odds, Picks, Predictions: Upset Brewing In Oxford Saturday?
After the initial College Football Playoff bracket was revealed, plenty is on the line in the SEC contest between No. 3 Georgia and No. 16 Ole Miss. With the Rebels on the outside looking in, they desperately need an upset victory. The Bulldogs are Georgia Bulldogs +16.5 (-112) on BetRivers spread favorites, and the total is 35.5 (-109) on BetRivers. Let’s assess Georgia at Ole Miss odds to determine if there’s any value.
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Georgia at ole miss odds: spread, moneyline, total
Key Line Movement
The point spread has fluctuated near the key number of a field goal, revolving around the status of Rebels wide receivers Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins, plus running back Henry Parrish. Although Harris and Parrish aren’t projected to play, Watkins was upgraded from doubtful to questionable on Thursday, lending some possible insurance for the Rebels’ skill-position unit.
Watkins set two Ole Miss single-game receiving records with 254 yards and five touchdowns in Saturday’s blowout victory at Arkansas.
Rebels Seeking Signature Win
Ole Miss (7-2) kicked off the campaign by going 4-0 against a slew of below-average non-conference opponents. But as 15.5-point favorites versus Kentucky, Lane Kiffin’s group lost outright. The second defeat came dramatically in Baton Rouge, falling to LSU in overtime.
SP+ estimates the Rebels’ College Football Playoff probability at 39.8%. Sweeping their remaining matchups against Georgia, Florida, and Mississippi State would significantly aid their chances. Conversely, the Bulldogs aren’t doomed if they lose. Given the expanded 12-team playoff, late-season upsets should become more of the norm.
Despite Georgia’s dominance on both sides of the ball in recent years, it ranks No. 59 in rushing success rate this season. If Trevor Etienne’s inefficiency continues, Carson Beck’s turnover woes could follow suit versus an Ole Miss defense with the top defensive havoc rating across college football.
For reference, Beck has compiled eight interceptions over the last three games, equivalent to a 5.1% turnover-worthy play rate (via PFF). He’s compiled more turnover-worthy plays (13) than big-time throws (12) in 2024.
Beck’s counterpart, Jaxson Dart, may struggle if Kirby Smart’s defensive line wins the battle in the trenches as it accomplished against Texas. Nevertheless, Dart’s mobility is a plus in that regard. He’s also amassed the third-most EPA per dropback, which corresponds with Ole Miss delivering the most explosive plays nationally.
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Final Thoughts
I’ve only tallied a few college bets this season, going 2-1 (+0.90 units). Let’s tack on another for the home underdog. You’ll find it in our free Discord channel. Good luck with your bets on Georgia vs. Ole Miss odds in Week 11!
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