Using College Football Conference Variance To Navigate Realignment, Futures Odds

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Written By Brett Gibbons | Last Updated
college football conference odds

Before betting on college football conference odds and teams to make the new 12-team College Football Playoff, Brett Gibbons authors his research on variance in college football conferences. Which conferences see standings shift most dramatically year to year and could provide better value in betting longshots to emerge?

In Week 10 of the 2023 college football season, two 1-7 teams took the field in a mostly empty InfoCision Stadium. Akron and Kent State – two schools just 12 miles apart – play a fierce MAC rivalry, with the Wagon Wheel trophy up for grabs each year. Down 17 in the fourth quarter, Akron strung together three touchdowns to upset Kent State in a wild turn of events. Despite a combined 2-14 record (.125), the nation tuned in. These Tuesday and Wednesday night matchups, lovingly called “MACtion,” routinely pull 500k+ viewers.

How does relatively low-level D-I college football manage to produce such a dependably entertaining product? Conference variance.

Last year, college football variance scores helped handicap conference odds. With the sport’s largest conference realignment taking hold this year, let’s take another assessment of variance scores.

VARIANCE SCORE AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL CONFERENCE ODDS

It’s mid-July, which means I’m really diving into the nitty gritty for college football odds. Win totals and conference futures are widely available for every team and league. Oftentimes, I prefer betting the smaller conferences due to a lack of information readily available.

ConferenceVariance Score
SEC100.75
Big Ten88.47
ACC46.08
Conference USA43.85
American38.61
Mountain West34.38
Sun Belt31.95
Big 1231.12
MAC22.58

What Is Variance Score?

Parity. I’ve pulled numbers to calculate Variance Score between conferences, but it’s an observable phenomenon. How big a gap is there between the top of the conference and the bottom? In this instance, I used aggregate preseason power ratings from multiple sources like SP+, FPI, etc., to calculate variance.

In the data above, a higher Variance Score means a larger gap between the top and bottom of the conference; therefore, there is less parity. A lower Variance Score means a tighter gap between teams and, therefore, more parity.

Take, for example, the conference with the lowest Variance Score, the MAC (22.58). Toledo became the first to repeat an appearance in the conference championship game from either division were Bowling Green and Northern Illinois from 2013-15, all of whom happened to have nationally prolific quarterback play. Every team except one (Eastern Michigan) has made the MAC Championship Game at least once since 2015.

HOW DOES VARIANCE SCORE IMPACT CFB CONFERENCE ODDS?

If the Variance Score in a certain conference is really low, then there’s more parity and a higher weekly probability of close games and upsets. Don’t know what to make of the Big 12 this year? Yeah, oddsmakers, either.

According to our preseason aggregate power ratings, top-rated Kansas State sits just 8.1 points above 10th-rated UCF. In a theoretical game in Orlando (the two don’t play this year), the line would be set under a touchdown, with UCF likely around a +6 home underdog – a projected one-score game. Just one bounce, turnover, or penalty would swing the game either way.

Chances are, we’ll get a lot of those one-score finishes in the Big 12 this year.

Variance Score can be a helpful handicapping tool when assessing CFB conference odds. Let’s take a look at current Big 12 odds:

College Football Conference Odds: Big 12

There’s a tie at the top between Utah and Kansas State, and the next eight teams have odds between 17-2 and 20-1. Unconventional, for sure. But let’s look at the SEC: Georgia and Texas are a clear top-two, then six more teams price between 15-2 and 25-1. There are more similarities in the pricing structure, like both Oklahoma State () and Ole Miss () pricing in similarly in third. Another tier contains Arizona () and Texas A&M ().

The difference is, the SEC (100.75) has nearly three times the Variance Score of the Big 12 (31.12) this season.

As laid out earlier, Big 12 favorite Kansas State projects around a touchdown favorite against nine Big 12 teams; the Wildcats project a 10+ point favorite against just two conference foes this year (Arizona State, Cincinnati). Conversely, SEC favorite Georgia projects as a 21+ point favorite in four SEC games this season.

So, when taking a mid- to long-shot in either conference, which favorite do you trust to falter more?

Close Wins And Regression To The Mean

Chances are, if you posted a really good record in one-score games one year, you’re bound to regress to the expected mean the next year. According to Phil Steele, 68.3% of teams that had two net close wins had the same or weaker record the next year. Of those who had four or five net close wins, 83.9% (!!!) had the same or weaker record the next year. “Net close wins” refers to the gap between close wins and close losses; for example, a 3-1 record in one-score games falls under two net close wins.

Last year, TCU went 0-4 in one-score games during the regular season and finished 5-7. The Horned Frogs went -7 in net turnovers (t-13th worst) and finished with the fifth-worst “luck” metric, per TeamRankings. Should TCU have finished at the expected .500 in one-score games – or benefitted from a favorable bounce or two – it would have gone bowling and could have even contended for eight wins.

Since Big 12 teams played in more one-score games than other conferences, due to having a low Variance Score in-league, there’s a greater uncertainty of outcome even for its top teams.

Fourth Downs And Wins

Fourth down go-rate is a hot topic in modern football. Last year, ESPN’s Bill Connelly did a brilliant article on what he dubs “fourth down profit.” In essence, how many points per game did a team net by successfully converting fourth downs?

In extreme cases like West Virginia, SMU, Maryland, and Texas Tech, teams were able to swing nearly a touchdown or more by converting fourth downs, on average.

WVU was able to swing a computed 8.3 points per game during the 2022 season under Neal Brown. This year, that mark is enough to cover the neutral-site difference between the Mountaineers and top-rated Kansas State. It’s enough to swing the gap between West Virginia and Utah in Salt Lake City. In four conference games, WVU is projected to be an underdog or play in a pick ’em. Continued aggression and success on fourth down is enough to skew the wins in its favor.

APPLYING VARIANCE SCORE TO College Football CONFERENCE ODDS

Looking at the Big Ten, placing a conference future on USC to win the Big Ten () would be considered a longshot bet. Aggregated preseason ratings project for 6.7 regular season wins, and they sit 9-15 points off the top of the conference, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, and Michigan. Twice, the Trojans project to be 9+ point underdogs, and just once in league play, they project to be more than a touchdown favorite (vs. Rutgers).

Compare that to West Virginia, which has similar odds of winning its conference (). WVU never projects to be greater than a touchdown underdog in Big 12 play, sitting just six power points off the conference leader. One or two favorable bounces close the gap between West Virginia and its opponents much easier than USC and its, only needing to outperform projections by a field goal weekly.

So, if you’re deciding between two similar longshots to win their conference, which one are you taking? The team that needs to over-perform by more than two scores weekly? Or the one who needs occasional Big 12 luck to bounce their way?

Variance Score And Win Totals

The same logic applies to win totals. San Jose State enters 2024 with a win total projected around five, and I project them for that same number. But if I had to make an over/under bet, I would confidently choose the under.

The Mountain West has the fourth-lowest Variance Score of any conference (34.38) and SJSU closed 2023 with a +11 turnover margin. The Spartans lose their head coach and project as an underdog of more than a touchdown just twice (vs. Sacramento State, Kennesaw State). Regression to the mean in turnover margin and turning over at head coach – even to the experienced Ken Niumatalolo – leads to lesser confidence in one-score games.

Last year, we used this logic on Middle Tennessee, and the Blue Raiders fell well short of their win total at just 4-8, firing head coach Rick Stockstill in the process.


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