College Football Bracketology: Week 9 Risers & Fallers For The CFP

Written By Road to CFB | Last Updated at October 27, 2025

In just one more week, we'll have our first set of official College Football Playoff rankings. From that point, college football bracketology becomes much clearer, as we get an insight into the committee's stances. With a rather expected Week 9 in the books, who moved up and down the projections for the inaugural 12-team playoff? A major stretch of weeks line up sure to make the playoff picture clearer.

Let's take a look at the impacts of Week 9 and what the 12-team College Football Playoff field could look like today. Does any value still lie on the board with teams on the outside looking in?

Odds To Make The 2024 College Football Playoff

Click on odds for the 12-team CFP below to make a wager at betting apps in your area. We'll use these odds to approach college football bracketology below.

Biggest Week 9 Risers

Texas A&M Aggies: Beat No. 8 LSU, 38-23. A&M currently leads the SEC in standings while the rest of the conference beats itself up. Georgia still has Ole Miss and Tennessee, and Alabama still has LSU. The Aggies close the year with Texas (in College Station) and have room for error at 5-0; no other team in the SEC is unscathed. South Carolina this weekend on the road is tricky, but Auburn is the only other conference game left other than Texas. The road is relatively clear.
Boise State Broncos: Beat UNLV, 29-24. The road is clear for Boise State to finish 11-1 heading into championship weekend. Its only loss is to the current No. 1 team in the nation. The Group of Five bid does not just run through Boise, but the Broncos may clinch a higher seed than 12. Boise moved up a few spots to No. 15 in the latest AP Top 25 and wasn't jumped by anyone.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Beat No. 24 Navy, 51-14. In previous years, that NIU loss would loom large over Notre Dame's playoff chances. But with convincing wins over Texas A&M and Navy, the Fighting Irish have pieced together an impressive resume. Beating the absolute brakes off Navy made a real statement.

Biggest Week 9 Fallers

Missouri Tigers: Lost to No. 15 Alabama, 34-0. Brady Cook got hurt again, and Missouri failed to score a point against Alabama. Somehow, the Tigers didn't fall out of the AP Top 25, but they may not appear in next week's debut CFP rankings. Close calls with Boston College and Auburn paired with two blowout losses to the top-ranked teams they played is a resume that'll keep this team out, even if the Tigers finish 10-2. They have an underwhelming final stretch, with four teams at a combined 14-17.
Liberty Flames: Lost to Kennesaw State, 27-24. Whoops! Now we as a nation don't have to have the 11-0 Liberty conversation (12-0 Conference USA champion Liberty). The Flames would finish with the 145th strength of schedule in Division I, worse than multiple FCS teams' SoS. Now it's not even a discussion.
Navy Midshipmen: Lost to No. 12 Notre Dame, 51-14. With Boise State in firm control of the Go5 bid, Navy needed to go unbeaten to control its own destiny. While a sole loss to Notre Dame wouldn't have been anything to scoff at, Navy was outclassed in every phase of the game. If it comes down to multiple one-loss Go5 teams, this kind of loss would keep the Midshipmen out, especially compared to Boise needing to be walked off by the No. 1 team in the country to lose.

Teams Eliminated From The CFP At-Large Conversation

Illinois Fighting Illini: Lost at No. 1 Oregon, 38-9. It's not so much the losing to the No. 1 team in the country, more so how they lost — in dominant fashion. Illinois already had an uphill battle, ranking 20th, but that door is probably closed. There are no resume builders left.
Vanderbilt Commodores: Lost to No. 5 Texas, 27-24. Win over Alabama or no win over Alabama, Vanderbilt won't be the three-loss team to make the CFP. That Georgia State loss looms large.
Navy Midshipmen: Lost to No. 12 Notre Dame, 51-14. Getting blown out by Notre Dame ends Navy's shot at an unbeaten season. Navy can still win the American Athletic Conference and technically get in the CFP, but it's a real uphill battle now.
Missouri Tigers: Lost to No. 15 Alabama, 34-0. Getting shut out sent Missouri tumbling down the AP Top 25, but somehow not out of it. But, as for an at-large bid, even 10-2 Missouri lacks the resume to get in.

Note: All Power Conference teams still have a chance at an auto-bid to the playoff by winning their conference. However, their at-large hopes are effectively dashed.

As the next couple of weeks progress, we'll have teams eliminated from their conference races. We'll note those above in the coming editions.

College Football Bracketology

The bracket below was chosen based on current odds at college football betting sites to make the CFP. Spread projections and advancements were decided using aggregated industry power ratings (FPI, SP+, etc.).

Projected CFP Top Four & First-Round Byes (Only Conference Champions Eligible)

(1) Oregon Ducks - Big Ten champion
(2) Texas Longhorns - SEC champion
(3) Miami (FL) Hurricanes - ACC champion
(4) Iowa State Cyclones - Big 12 champion

Projected CFP First-Round Matchups

(12) Boise State Broncos at (5) Ohio State Buckeyes
(11) Indiana Hoosiers at (6) Georgia Bulldogs
(10) Texas A&M Aggies at (7) Penn State Nittany Lions
(9) Clemson Tigers at (8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

First Four Out

Tennessee Volunteers
BYU Cougars
Army Black Knights
SMU Mustangs

College Football Bracketology: Bubble Teams

Looking outside college football odds, there are some teams in advantageous positions to make a CFP run. Here are some teams that sit outside the odds projections that I think we could see come December:

SMU Mustangs (Beat Stanford 40-10, has a favorable route to the ACC championship game.)
Indiana Hoosiers (Beat Nebraska 56-7, sits at 6-0 with resume testers against Ohio State and Michigan. Rourke's injury is not believed to be long-term. Project for more wins than Clemson and LSU.)
BYU Cougars (Beat Oklahoma State 38-35, moves to 7-0.)

Conversely, there are a couple of teams that the odds project in or on the fringe that I think are a bit overvalued:

Alabama Crimson Tide (Beat Missouri 34-0. Has two losses and still has LSU on the schedule. Odds overvalue the Mizzou win.)
Kansas State Wildcats (Beat Kansas 29-27. Inconsistency has no place in a conference as wide-open as the Big 12. It is not a two-bid conference by any stretch.)
Tennessee Volunteers (On bye. Only one loss on the schedule but still has Georgia. Is this team winning the SEC?)