College Football Bracketology: Could Alabama Miss The Playoff?

Written By Road to CFB | Last Updated at October 27, 2025

Two monstrous weeks of college football later and we've got a much clearer picture of what the 12-team playoff might look like. The biggest results on this week's college football bracketology included No. 5 Georgia over No. 1 Texas and No. 11 Tennessee over No. 7 Alabama. With just six weeks left until Selection Sunday, each result is critical to teams' CFP chances.

Let's take a look at the impacts of another blockbuster Week 8 and what the 12-team College Football Playoff field could look like today. Does any value still lie on the board with teams on the outside looking in?

Odds To Make The 2024 College Football Playoff

Click on odds for the 12-team CFP below to make a wager at betting apps in your area. We'll use these odds to approach college football bracketology below.

Biggest Week 8 Risers

Georgia Bulldogs: Beat No. 1 Texas, 30-15. A road win over the No. 1 team in the nation comes with its perks, who'd have thought? However, the latest AP Poll still gives undefeated Oregon the nod, moving Georgia to the No. 2 seed. Does that uphold in the CFP rankings given the team's resumes? Likely, but forecasting the season still favors Ohio State over Oregon and Georgia has Ole Miss and the SEC Championship to make its final case. Either way, this is where they sit today.
BYU Cougars: Beat Oklahoma State, 38-35. BYU avoided disaster at home and moved to 7-0. Given the schedule ahead – which features a spiraling Utah team – the Cougars project for 10.9 average wins. The Big 12 is almost certainly a one-bid league, although the current AP Poll features two teams in the top 12. My guess here is the CFP rankings won't reflect that, as BYU's best win this season comes over Kansas State (16th). But that 11-1 forecast definitely matters!
SMU Mustangs: Beat Stanford, 40-10. Don't look now, but there's a literal dark horse contender in the ACC. After dropping a game to BYU (7-0 BYU, that is), the nation kind of forgot about SMU. But the Mustangs are now 6-1 with a solid win over Louisville and a favorable schedule ahead. SMU avoids both Clemson and Miami until the ACC Championship game. The other two teams have tougher lies ahead, and SMU could steal the ACC bid while all eyes fall on the Tigers and 'Canes.

Biggest Week 8 Fallers

Alabama Crimson Tide: Lost to No. 11 Tennessee, 24-17. Could we see a playoff without Alabama in it? These latest projections seem to think so. The Tide now project for 8.7 wins with a road game at LSU and Oklahoma, plus the Iron Bowl at home. A 9-3 Alabama with a loss to Vanderbilt doesn't get in the playoff.
Texas Longhorns: Lost to No. 5 Georgia, 30-15. From pole position to sixth in the standings, these monster games do matter for seeding. The Longhorns didn't just lose to Georgia at home, they were fully dominated in every phase. Texas even benched Quinn Ewers to try to get something going... to no avail. A loss to what could end up being the No. 1 team in the nation come the final CFP Ranking isn't anything to be ashamed of, but it does shuffle things around ahead of Week 9.
James Madison Dukes: Lost to Georgia Southern, 28-14. We already wrote JMU off from its shocking loss to ULM a few weeks ago, but now the Dukes are fully out of it. Done. Write it in Sharpie. No two-loss Group of Five team will make this structure of the playoff, you can book that one.

Teams Eliminated From The CFP At-Large Conversation

Alabama Crimson Tide: The latest AP Poll tells us what that loss at Tennessee means. The Tide fell eight spots. We're looking at a 9-3 Alabama currently, but even a 10-2 'Bama that both (a) didn't make the SEC Championship and (b) lost to Vanderbilt likely doesn't get in.
Texas Tech Red Raiders: There was a chance an 11-2 Texas Tech team that lost close in the Big 12 Championship game got in. But not now, after suffering a second loss, and not a close one, falling to Baylor, 59-35.
Arizona State Sun Devils: See above. Arizona State suffered a second loss on the season, falling to Cincinnati, 24-14.

Note: All Power Conference teams still have a chance at an auto-bid to the playoff by winning their league. However, their at-large hopes are effectively dashed.

As the next couple of weeks progress, we'll have teams eliminated from their conference races. We'll note those above in the coming editions.

College Football Bracketology

The bracket below was chosen based on current odds at college football betting sites to make the CFP. Spread projections and advancements were decided using aggregated industry power ratings (FPI, SP+, etc.).

As teams add to their resume this season, I will begin to assess college football bracketology using the CFP committee's criteria.

Projected CFP Top Four & First-Round Byes (Only Conference Champions Eligible)

(1) Oregon Ducks - Big Ten Champion
(2) Georgia Bulldogs - SEC Champion
(3) Miami (FL) Hurricanes - ACC Champion
(4) Iowa State Cyclones - Big 12 Champion

Projected CFP First-Round Matchups

(12) Boise State Broncos at (5) Ohio State Buckeyes
(11) Indiana Hoosiers at (6) Texas Longhorns
(10) Clemson Tigers at (7) Penn State Nittany Lions
(9) LSU Tigers at (8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

First Four Out

Tennessee Volunteers
BYU Cougars
Army Black Knights
SMU Mustangs

College Football Bracketology: Bubble Teams

Looking outside college football odds, there are some teams in advantageous positions to make a CFP run. Here are some teams that sit outside the odds projections that I think we could see come December:

SMU Mustangs (Beat Stanford, 40-10, has a favorable route to the ACC Championship Game)
Indiana Hoosiers (Beat Nebraska, 56-7, sits at 6-0 with resume testers against Ohio State and Michigan. Rourke's injury is not believed to be long-term. Project for more wins than Clemson and LSU.)
BYU Cougars (beat Oklahoma State, 38-35, moves to 7-0)

Conversely, there are a couple of teams that the odds project in or on the fringe that I think are a bit overvalued:

Alabama Crimson Tide (Lost to Tennessee, 38-35–its second loss of the season–still has LSU on the schedule)
Texas A&M Aggies (Has LSU and Texas left on the schedule, project for 8.9 wins)
Tennessee Volunteers (Beat Alabama, 24-17, in mistake-ridden game. Nico Iamaleava still mistake-prone QB. Has Georgia and tricky games against Kentucky and Vanderbilt on the schedule. Priced like an at-large shoe-in. Could have three losses.)