College Football Playoff Bracketology: Why Utah Is Seeded Above Georgia

Written By Road to CFB | Published at September 24, 2024

Week 4 of the college football season provided a good look at some fringe contenders in both College Football Playoff odds and National Title odds. As a result of Tennessee's win at Oklahoma, Utah's win at Oklahoma State, and others, the playoff picture narrowed down further. College football bracketology is going to look strange at times to many of you. Since the top-four seeds and first-round byes go to conference champions only, right now, Utah has a higher seed than Georgia, even though nobody would argue the Dawgs are worse than the Utes.

Now, Week 5 offers another slate of monumental games for the CFP field, including Alabama vs. Georgia. Let's take a look at the odds boards and potential forecasts for these teams. Is there any value exist on the odds board?

Odds To Make The 2024 College Football Playoff

Click on odds to bet on the 12-team CFP below. We'll use these odds to approach college football bracketology below.

Biggest Week 4 Risers

Utah Utes: Under backup QB Isaac Wilson, Utah managed to knock off Oklahoma State on the road, 22-19. The Utes defense controlled the game, leading 22-11 until the very end of the game. Once Cameron Rising returns, Utah is a real force to be reckoned with.
Clemson Tigers: Removing the Georgia game (Clemson lost 34-3), the Tigers have barreled through their competition. Cade Klubnik appears more comfortable and the offense moves at a clip. So long as Clemson physically matches up – which, is against almost every team in the country – the Tigers appear to be able to destroy their opponents.
James Madison Dukes: Yes, it was against a pretty poor North Carolina defense, but JMU hung 70 points this weekend. The biggest reason for the move here: JMU's projected wins, per aggregated industry power ratings, moved to 10.1 this year, most among Group of Five contenders.

Biggest Week 4 Fallers

Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Pokes are headed in the wrong direction. They lost their biggest game of the year at home this past weekend, falling to Utah without its starting QB. Oklahoma State has another crack at a ranked opponent, Kansas State, this weekend. Losing that game would put Oklahoma State far on the outside looking in.
Memphis Tigers: Ouch. Favored by double digits, Memphis allowed 59 points to Navy and nearly fell completely out of the CFP conversation. The only path for Memphis now is to both win the American and hope other players like Boise State, James Madison, Texas State, UNLV, and Washington State lose.
Missouri Tigers: After back-to-back close finishes against apparently inferior competition, real questions surrounding Missouri are warranted. The offense lacks urgency and pop and Mizzou needed an overtime field goal to beat Vanderbilt in Columbia.

Teams Eliminated From The CFP Conversation

Memphis Tigers: Lost to Navy, 59-44
Northern Illinois: Fell in overtime to Buffalo, 23-20
Toledo Rockets: Lost to Western Kentucky, 26-21
USF Bulls: Fell to Miami (FL), 50-15
Appalachian State: Lost at home to South Alabama, 48-14
Oklahoma Sooners: Lost at home to Tennessee, 25-15, and benched QB Jackson Arnold

Note: Oklahoma still has a chance at an auto-bid to the Playoff by winning the SEC.

College Football Bracketology

The bracket below was chosen based on current odds at college football betting sites to make the CFP at college football betting sites. Spread projections and advancements were decided using aggregated industry power ratings (FPI, SP+, etc.).

As teams add to their resume this season, I will begin to assess college football bracketology using the CFP committee's criteria.

Projected CFP Top Four & First-Round Byes (Only Conference Champions Eligible)

(1) Ohio State Buckeyes - Big Ten Champion
(2) Texas Longhorns - SEC Champion
(3) Miami (FL) Hurricanes - ACC Champion
(4) Utah Utes - Big 12 Champion

Projected CFP First-Round Matchups

(12) Boise State Broncos at (5) Georgia Bulldogs
(11) Clemson Tigers at (6) Alabama Crimson Tide
(10) Tennessee Volunteers at (7) Oregon Ducks
(9) Penn State Nittany Lions at (8) Ole Miss Rebels

First Four Out

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Iowa State Cyclones
James Madison Dukes
Oklahoma State Cowboys

College Football Bracketology: Bubble Teams

Going beyond just college football odds, there are some teams that are beginning to show their colors. Here are some teams that sit outside the odds projections that I think we could see come December:

James Madison Dukes (Beat North Carolina, 70-50)
Iowa State Cyclones (Beat Arkansas State, 52-7)
Washington State Cougars (beat San Jose State, 54-52, in overtime, move to 4-0)

Conversely, there are a couple of teams that the odds project in or on the fringe that I think are a bit overvalued:

Missouri Tigers (needed overtime to upend Vanderbilt at home)
Louisville Cardinals (beat Georgia Tech with 14 points of special teams and defensive scores)