College Football Playoff Bracketology: Quiet Week 3 Sets Up Loaded Week 4

College basketball fans have had it for years, and now college football bracketology comes to the gridiron. The 12-team College Football Playoff picture becomes clearer with each week. Though Week 3 offered little in the way of season-defining games for the CFP contenders, it did offer snapshots of this year’s pretenders. College Football Playoff odds and National Title odds will see a massive shift this coming weekend with a loaded slate of ranked matchups and blockbusters.

Let’s take a look at the odds boards and potential forecasts for these teams. Does any value lie on the board?

Odds To Make The 2024 College Football Playoff

Click on odds to bet on the 12-team CFP below. We’ll use these odds to approach college football bracketology below.

Quiet Week Does Little To Shake Up CFP Field

Heading into Week 3, we knew the slate wouldn’t have much impact on College Football Playoff futures. It was a week packed with local rivalries and a soft launch of conference play. The week did more to cement pretenders this year (Florida, Florida State, Kansas). The top results with impacts on the CFP field included Kansas State blowing out Arizona, 31-7, and Washington, South Carolina, and Boston College likely being removed from the bubble conversation.

Otherwise, Utah, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma all avoided road bumps ahead of blockbuster matchups in Week 4. Kentucky nearly re-defined the CFP landscape, but Georgia ultimately won the game. That result did, however, have impacts on the AP Top 25 (Texas now ranks No. 1) and bracket seeding below. But as for UGA’s long-term outlook? Fade the Dawgs at your own risk.

A majority of teams around the 12-team field either had a bye (Boise State, Clemson, Ohio State, Penn State, USC) or played tomato cans (Tennessee, Ole Miss, Miami). Alabama cemented its place as a CFP contender with a 42-10 blowout at Wisconsin. Notre Dame also climbed back into the conversation with a vengeful 66-7 dismantling of Purdue on the road.

Just because the week was quiet doesn’t mean it wasn’t enjoyable!

College Football Bracketology

The bracket below was chosen based on current odds at college football betting sites to make the CFP at college football betting sites. Spread projections and advancements were decided using aggregated industry power ratings (FPI, SP+, etc.).

As teams add to their resume this season, I will begin to assess college football bracketology using the CFP committee’s criteria.

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Teams Receiving First-Round Byes

(1) Ohio State Buckeyes – Big Ten Champion
(2) Texas Longhorns – SEC Champion
(3) Miami (FL) Hurricanes – ACC Champion
(4) Iowa State Cyclones – Big 12 Champion

First Round Matchups

(12) Boise State Broncos at (5) Georgia Bulldogs
(11) USC Trojans at (6) Alabama Crimson Tide
(10) Tennessee Volunteers at (7) Oregon Ducks
(9) Penn State Nittany Lions at (8) Ole Miss Rebels

First Four Out

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Kansas State Wildcats
Clemson Tigers
Oklahoma State Cowboys

College Football Bracketology: Bubble Teams

Going beyond just college football odds, there are some teams that are beginning to show their colors. Here are some teams that sit outside the odds projections that I think we could see in come December:

• Iowa State Cyclones (Idle in Week 2, beat No. 21 Iowa, 20-19)
• USC Trojans (Idle in Week 2, beat No. 16 LSU, 27-20)
• Tennessee Volunteers (beat Kent State, 71-0)

Conversely, there are a couple of teams that the odds project in or on the fringe that I think are a bit overvalued:

• Missouri Tigers (skated by Boston College, 27-21, at home)
• Utah Utes (concerns about Cameron Rising’s hand injury, huge swing game on tap in Week 4)

Week 4 Games With Biggest Impact On College Football Bracketology

• NC State at No. 21 Clemson, Saturday (12:00 p.m. ET, ABC)
• No. 11 USC at No. 18 Michigan, Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
• No. 12 Utah at No. 14 Oklahoma State, Saturday (4:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
• No. 6 Tennessee at No. 15 Oklahoma, Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

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