College Football Playoff Bracketology: Who’s In, Out After NIU Upsets Notre Dame?

With each passing week, College Football Playoff odds and National Title odds take firmer shape. The 12-team College Football Playoff is several months from now and still a fleeting thought for many. But not here at TheLines.com! We’re monitoring odds movement and impact games (both upcoming and settled) for the CFP. Thus, we give you our Week 3 College Football Bracketology report, with the biggest shake-up this week coming from Notre Dame’s stunning loss to Northern Illinois.

Let’s take a look at the odds boards and potential forecasts for these teams. Does any value lie on the board?

Odds To Make The 2024 College Football Playoff

Click on odds to bet on the 12-team CFP below. We’ll use these odds to approach college football bracketology below.

Lopsided Decisions, Upsets Trim Down The Field

Two blowouts virtually eliminated two teams and cemented two more as real contenders. No. 3 Texas soundly beat No. 10 Michigan, 31-12, behind stellar play from QB Quinn Ewers. The result also jumped Ewers to the top of Heisman Trophy odds boards. No. 14 Tennessee also blew out No. 24 NC State, 51-10. That result, barring an unbeaten season from the Vols and the Wolfpack running the table, all but eliminates NC State from the running.

The MAC nearly shaped the landscape with close decisions over top-8 teams. NIU shocked No. 5 Notre Dame as +28.5 underdogs – a result that likely weighs heavy on the CFP Selection Committee’s minds. Should the Irish finish 11-1 and it comes down to them or a 10-2 SEC team like Ole Miss (losses to Alabama, Georgia) or LSU (losses to USC and Alabama), the SEC team likely gets in with a tougher strength of schedule. No. 8 Penn State narrowly avoided upset against Bowling Green as -35.5 favorites. BG led deep in the third quarter.

In the Big 12, No. 16 Oklahoma State salvaged its season in double OT against Arkansas. While not the nail in the coffin – after all, the Big 12 is wide-open and its champion gets a first-round bye – the Pokes would have been skating on thin ice with an at-large bid. No. 17 Kansas State staved off upset at Tulane and No. 11 Utah outlasted Baylor. The Big 12 is unlikely to have more than one bid in the field, but it’s not out of the question. These three teams are playing for the crown, but would also hope to be an at-large, if it came down to it.

College Football Bracketology

The bracket below was chosen based on current odds at college football betting sites to make the CFP at college football betting sites. Spread projections and advancements were decided using aggregated industry power ratings (FPI, SP+, etc.).

As teams add to their resume this season, I will begin to assess college football bracketology using the CFP committee’s criteria.

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Teams Receiving First-Round Byes

(1) Ohio State Buckeyes – Big Ten Champion
(2) Georgia Bulldogs – SEC Champion
(3) Miami (FL) Hurricanes – ACC Champion
(4) Iowa State Cyclones – Big 12 Champion

First Round Matchups

(12) Boise State Broncos at (5) Texas Longhorns
(11) USC Trojans at (6) Alabama Crimson Tide
(10) Tennessee Volunteers at (7) Ole Miss Rebels
(9) Penn State Nittany Lions at (8) Oregon Ducks

First Four Out

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Utah Utes
Missouri Tigers
Oklahoma State Cowboys

College Football Bracketology: Bubble Teams

Going beyond just college football odds, there are some teams that are beginning to show their colors. Here are some teams that sit outside the odds projections that I think we could see in come December:

• Iowa State Cyclones (beat No. 21 Iowa, 20-19)
• USC Trojans (beat Utah State 48-0)
• Tennessee Volunteers (beat No. 24 NC State, 51-10)

Conversely, there are a couple of teams that the odds project in or on the fringe that I think are a bit overvalued:

• Clemson Tigers (rebounded but have a tricky ACC schedule)
• Notre Dame Fighting Irish (NIU loss chiefly a letdown spot but, with no conference title, don’t be surprised to be a 10-2 SEC team get in over an 11-1 Notre Dame)

Week 3 Games With Biggest Impact On College Football Bracketology

• No. 20 Arizona at No. 14 Kansas State, Friday (8:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
• No. 16 LSU at South Carolina, Saturday (12:00 p.m. ET, ABC)
• No. 18 Notre Dame at Purdue, Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
• UCF at TCU, Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, FOX)

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