College Football Playoff Bracketology: Who’s In, Out After Week 1 Results?
The opening weekend of college football is in the books. We witnessed an enormous slate packed with lopsided games vs. weak opponents, but there were some impactful matchups, particularly on College Football Playoff odds and National Title odds. The 12-team College Football Playoff is several months from now and still a fleeting thought for many. But not here at TheLines.com! We’re monitoring odds movement and impact games (both upcoming and settled) for the CFP. Thus, we give you our debut College Football Bracketology report.
The goal here is not to overreact to a week’s worth of games (or, in some cases, two games). Rather, let’s take a look at the odds boards and potential forecasts for these teams. Does any value lie on the board? Perhaps!
Odds To Make The 2024 College Football Playoff
Click on odds to bet on the 12-team CFP below. We’ll use these odds to approach college football bracketology below.
ACC Results Impact College Football Bracketology
The biggest results from Weeks 0 and 1, of course, were Georgia Tech over Florida State and Boston College over Florida State. The ‘Noles start the season 0-2 and, more importantly, 0-2 in ACC play. Despite heavy turnover, FSU was a popular pick to win a wide-open ACC and clinch a first-round bye. After seeing results from Clemson, NC State, and North Carolina, the ACC is likely a one-bid league. Starting 0-2 in it is pretty much a nail in the coffin for FSU’s CFP chances.
Additionally, Clemson getting thrashed by Georgia in Week 1 set the bar for the ACC. While the result likely doesn’t destroy the Tigers’ chances of getting in the field directly – after all, Oregon was crushed by Georgia in 2022 and still finished 10-3 – it does tab the ACC as a one-bid league.
Miami (FL) dominated Florida on the road and jumped to the top of ACC odds boards this weekend. Currently, they sit in the driver’s seat for the CFP. However, could that result be chalked up to the Gators being a bad football team? We’ll have to wait until October to find out – Miami plays Florida A&M, Ball State, and USF in the next three weeks.
Week 1 ultimately sorted out the ACC early on. Things can change, but the landscape became a lot more shaped.
College Football Bracketology
The bracket below was chosen based on current odds at college football betting sites to make the CFP at college football betting sites. Spread projections and advancements were decided using aggregated industry power ratings (FPI, SP+, etc.).
As teams add to their resume this season, I will begin to assess college football bracketology using the CFP committee’s criteria.
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Teams Receiving First-Round Byes
(1) Georgia Bulldogs – SEC Champion
(2) Ohio State Buckeyes – Big 10 Champion
(3) Miami (FL) Hurricanes – ACC Champion
(4) Utah Utes – Big 12 Champion
First Round Matchups
(12) Liberty Flames at (5) Oregon Ducks
(11) Michigan Wolverines at (6) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
(10) Ole Miss Rebels at (7) Texas Longhorns
(9) Alabama Crimson Tide at (8) Penn State Nittany Lions
College Football Bracketology: Bubble Teams
Going beyond just college football odds, there are some teams that may have shown their colors last weekend. We had 106 matchups, the overwhelming majority of which involved FBS-versus-FCS matchups and other buy games like Akron at Ohio State and WKU at Alabama. But that doesn’t mean there wasn’t anything to be taken away. Here are some teams that sit outside the odds projections that I think we could see in come December:
- USC Trojans (beat LSU 27-20)
- Boise State Broncos (Ashton Jeanty rushed for 267 yards and 6 TDs on the road)
- Oklahoma State Cowboys (dominant 44-20 win over repeat FCS National Champion South Dakota State)
Conversely, there are a couple of teams that the odds project in or on the fringe that I think are a bit overvalued:
- Michigan Wolverines (QB room looks confused and uninspiring)
- Clemson Tigers (still no offensive pop, and the schedule is tricky)
Week 2 Games With Biggest Impact On College Football Bracketology
- Texas at Michigan, Saturday (12:00 p.m., FOX)
- Tennessee vs. NC State, Saturday (7:30 p.m., ABC)
- Appalachian State at Clemson, Saturday (8:00 p.m., ACC Network)
- Boise State at Oregon, Saturday (10:00 p.m., Peacock)
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