5 Early-Season College Football Betting Tips To Remember For 2024

It’s time to bet on college football! Early season slates offer plenty of opportunity for savvy bettors to get ahead of the curve. While lines are mature, they are formed based on preseason calculations. You can take advantage of market misprices and fading hype trains to turn an early profit. What specifically should you look for? Check out a few early-season college football betting tips below.

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Top College Football Early-Season Betting Tips

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Bet On Small-Market Teams and Niche Markets

Betting FCS football can be a real sweat. But, if you’re quick enough, you can get ahead of some serious misprices. For example, Montana State opened as a -4 favorite on the road at New Mexico. The day before, that line climbed all the way up to -13.5. For FCS vs. FCS games, opening lines create a feeding frenzy. However, get on the right side of the matchup and you could have 10+ points of closing line value on both sides and totals.

Otherwise it’s wise to specialize in a particular conference. Instead of trying to chip away at a sharp market like the SEC – those big-game markets are approaching NFL-levels of sharp – instead become an expert on the 10 Conference USA teams. Notice Jacksonville State’s backup QB is an experienced starter from the FCS who has some talent? Perhaps you can get ahead of a market just noticing the Gamecocks are without their starter without realizing there isn’t much of a drop off.

Conference USA, the MAC, and Mountain West present opportunities for those willing to put in the time.

Look Closely At Related Markets

Aside from just alternate lines being prone to being mispriced, look at over/unders, moneylines, and half totals. When the spread was adjusted from Tulsa +12.5 to +8.5, did the moneyline move accordingly? (Referencing a spread to ML chart for college football, Tulsa should be around +275.) Did the over/under move?

And don’t just look at related markets in one book — be sure to line shop and see if all of the related markets at every book are priced accordingly.

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Note Scheduling Situations and Quirks

Last year, Oklahoma State pulled off a thrilling and emotional upset of arch-rival Oklahoma in the final Bedlam Game on the schedule. The Pokes saw their power rating increase and entered the following week at UCF a two-point favorite. UCF decimated Oklahoma State, 45-3, thanks to a number of factors:

• Emotional comedown (“Letdown game”)
• Pokes were beat up
• Disruption to the schedule traveling to Orlando

Locate spots on the schedule to bet against teams. For example, Georgia State plays a three-game stretch that includes at Appalachian State, at UConn, and at James Madison. App State and JMU have rest advantages coming off byes, while Georgia State is in the midst of a four-game road trip. Returning home to play Arkansas State could result in the Red Wolves, who have a bye week two weeks prior, being well-rested and ready to go.

Other situations to account for include look-ahead spots (one team plays a big rival or highly-ranked opponent the week after playing an inferior ones), letdown spots (see Oklahoma State above), and body blow games (coming off a particularly physical game, typically against a service academy or run-heavy team). As a reminder, these are college kids! Disruption and situational football is much more pronounced than in the NFL.

Fade Weather Overreactions

Particularly during an unpredictable hurricane season. Oftentimes, those trying to get ahead of the market will jump on a total if Monday’s forecast shows heavy wind and rain. But, by Thursday, that forecast may have cooled a bit, and the weather impacts may not be so bad after all. This is particularly evident for games in the “cone of influence” surrounding Tropical Storms and Hurricanes.

While inside that cone, winds could be less than 15 mph and rain could be light to none. Fading market overreactions to potential weather events that were bet well in advance could result in a nice edge weekly.

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