Two Top-10 Matchups Headline Best Games In Week 11 College Football Betting Odds
Odds are available across the best college football betting sites as we prepare for Week 11 of the 2023 season. We’ll reveal the best games below and provide the best available sports betting odds. Here is the college football schedule for this weekend, ranked by KFord Ratings Watchability Scores. No. 3 Michigan at No. 10 Penn State in the Big Ten and No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 2 Georgia in the SEC top the list.
2 Best Games This Week By WATCHABILITY SCORES
Watchability is a weighted score of projected quality (average KFord Ratings) and projected competitiveness (projected KFord spread) on a 0-10 scale. Which games are launched to be the best this week? Let’s discuss. Click on the odds below to bet now.
No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (9-0, 6-0) at No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1, 5-1):
9.9 Watchability Score
9.9 Watchability Score! Using my current power ratings, there are only three regular-season games that grade out as a 9.9/10 on the Watchability Scale. Penn State at Ohio State (Week 8), Ohio State at Michigan (Week 13), and this game: No. 3 Michigan at No. 10 Penn State.
I’ve written extensively about how Michigan doesn’t deserve to be ranked as highly as the Committee has the Wolverines ranked. Their average opponent quality to date simply isn’t great enough to rationalize a top-5 ranking. But that’s irrelevant with regard to breaking down this game and attempting to decipher which team will win and why. And despite my qualms with Michigan’s ranking, the fact of the matter is this is an excellent football team, perhaps the best in the country.
For the third consecutive week, Michigan is No. 1 in both my power ratings and my relative scoring margin metric. The Wolverines are outscoring their opponents by 15.3 points per game, more than would be expected of the average top-25 FBS team against Michigan’s schedule. In the preseason, I projected the Wolverines to have the No. 3 defense and the No. 8 offense. Now? The defense is No. 1 in the nation, having spent nearly half the season leading the country on that side of the ball, and the offense is No. 5 for the third straight week. This is a robust and balanced football team. And if the Wolverines continue playing this way against their upcoming opponents, they will put themselves in a position to finish No. 1 in my power ratings for the first time since 1964!
With a power rating rank of No. 4, Penn State represents Michigan’s most formidable opponent so far this season, and it isn’t even close (the Wolverines’ next-highest power-rated opponent to date is No. 45 Rutgers at home). Not to mention that this game is in Happy Valley, one of the most challenging environments for visiting teams in all of college football.
Penn State has been in the top 5 of my power ratings all season. The Nittany Lions are currently No. 3 in relative scoring margin (+14.0) and have the No. 4 defensive unit in the country. Penn State has only finished the season in the top four of my power ratings once since 1994 – a No. 3 finish in 2017. So this Nittany Lions team has the potential to be the best we’ve seen in a generation. The big question continues: can Drew Allar and the No. 22 offense score enough points to win? In the only other game this season in which Penn State didn’t have a big talent advantage – on the road at Ohio State – the Nittany Lions could only muster one touchdown and even that came late in the 4th quarter. At some point, I believe the narrative of “James Franklin can’t win the biggest games” will flip on its head, as it did for Jim Harbaugh in 2021. Could this game be that inflection point in history?
My numbers project Michigan to beat Penn State by 1, which equates to a 53% win expectancy for the Wolverines.
Big 10 Championship Implications
Ohio State has been my model’s favorite to win the East weekly since the preseason. However, if Michigan wins in Happy Valley this week, the Wolverines will supplant the Buckeyes atop my projected Big Ten East standings for the first time next week.
With a win, Michigan would have a 58% chance to win the division and return to Indianapolis for the third consecutive year. But if Penn State earns the upset victory at home, it brings the three-way tie scenario firmly into play and catapults the Nittany Lions back into the mix for a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game for the first time since 2016.
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No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels (8-1, 5-1) at No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (9-0, 6-0):
9.6 Watchability Score
It’s hard to believe, but these two conference foes haven’t played since 2016 and have only played five times since 2002. One of the few silver linings of conference realignment is the evolved approach to conference scheduling, which should rectify these anomalies moving forward.
Like Michigan, I’ve written quite a bit about how Georgia doesn’t deserve to be ranked as highly as they have been all year. The difference between Michigan and Georgia is that the Wolverines are playing like a top-4 team, while Georgia is playing more like a top-7 team. It might seem like semantics, and starting next year, it will be. But the difference between top-4 and top-7 is significant in the four-team College Football Playoff environment.
Please don’t misunderstand what I’m saying: the Dawgs are a really good football team. Georgia is No. 7 in my power ratings and has the No. 5 defense and No. 6 offense. But the margins are thin at the top of the college football pyramid. And Georgia seems to be missing that ultimate top gear for the first time in a few years.
With a No. 6 Most Deserving ranking, Ole Miss has the most impressive résumé of any of the four teams in this article. In fact, just last week, I wrote about how the Rebels were the most underranked team in the initial College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings. But again, résumé metrics don’t do anything to help project who will win an upcoming game. For that, we have the predictive metrics. And the predictive metrics have been pretty dialed in on Ole Miss this year.
The Rebels started the year at No. 18 and have been ranked between that and No. 11 all season, currently ranking No. 15. The offense, currently ranked No. 10, has been very good all season with a ranking between No. 7 and No. 17 each week. The biggest cause for concern for Ole Miss has been the good-not-great defense, which is currently No. 29. And the only other time this season that Rebels defense went up against a top-20 offense on the road was their only loss of the season, Week 4 at Alabama.
My numbers project Georgia to beat Ole Miss by 7, equating to a 69% win expectancy for the Dawgs in a game that ranks No. 12 on my regular season games with the greatest Watchability Scores.
SEC Championship Game Implications
It doesn’t get any more straightforward than this for the Dawgs: win this game, and you’ll be heading to Atlanta for the sixth time in seven seasons.
Ole Miss is still mathematically alive to win the West, but the Rebels need nothing short of a miracle. In addition to winning this game and the Egg Bowl in two weeks, the Rebels also need Alabama to lose at Kentucky this week and in the Iron Bowl in two weeks.
Best of luck with your college football betting this week!
College Football Schedule: Week 11 Watchability Scores
Enjoy your college football betting and loaded schedule this week!
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