LSU At Alabama, Kansas State At Texas Headline Week 10 College Football Betting
Odds are available across the best college football betting sites as we prepare for Week 10 of the 2023 season. We’ll reveal the best games below and provide the best available sports betting odds in your state. Here is the college football schedule for this weekend, ranked by KFord Ratings Watchability Scores. LSU at Alabama in the SEC and Kansas State at Texas in the Big 12 top the list.
2 Best Games This Week By WATCHABILITY SCORES
Watchability is a weighted score of projected quality (average KFord Ratings) and projected competitiveness (projected KFord spread) presented on a 0-10 scale. Which games are projected to be the best this week? Let’s discuss. Click on the odds to bet.
No. 14 LSU Tigers (6-2, 4-1) at No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1, 5-0):
9.8 Watchability Score
LSU vs. Alabama at night – whether it’s in Death Valley or Bryant Denny – is seemingly always one of the most highly-anticipated games of the college football season. And this year is no different, as this game checks in with the No. 7-highest Watchability Score of the regular season.
Alabama is currently power-rated No. 9, by my model. The Crimson Tide haven’t finished a season ranked that low since 2008 – Nick Saban’s second year in Tuscaloosa. However, as I’ve written before, Alabama doesn’t need to be better than the previous versions of itself. The Tide needs to be better than the teams on its schedule in 2023. And with a 38% chance to finish the regular season 11-1, that is precisely how the model is currently evaluating this team.
Alabama’s offense is currently power-rated No. 20, 16 spots worse than in the preseason but nine spots better five weeks ago. But, as has been the case for the majority of Saban’s tenure, it’s the defense that is carrying this team, ranking No. 5 nationally for the third straight week. And that unit will have to play lights out on Saturday night because this LSU team has the best offense the Tide will face all season, per my current numbers.
Believe it or not, my power ratings suggest that this year’s LSU team is better than the 2022 version that beat the Crimson Tide and won the West. LSU’s current power rating of 22.0 is their best since they finished the 2019 national championship season with a rating of 35.9 (among the best ever for any college football team).
It starts with an offensive unit that ranks No. 2 nationally behind only Oregon. Much like this is the best unit the Alabama defense will play all season, the Alabama defense also represents the best opposing unit this Tigers offense will face this season, per my current numbers. This strength-on-strength matchup should be phenomenal and is a big reason why this game has such a high Watchability Score.
Both teams were off last week, so neither team will have a rest advantage, per usual, for this matchup. The difference in this game comes down to two things for my model: the LSU defense is No. 56 (the only unit ranked outside the top 20 nationally), and this game is in Tuscaloosa.
My numbers project Alabama to beat LSU by 2.5, which equates to a 57% chance the Tide get revenge for the overtime loss in Death Valley in 2022.
SEC Championship Implications
It’s pretty simple for Alabama: win this game and plan for a trip to Atlanta in early December. The Tide also need this win to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive.
However, an LSU win makes things more interesting in the West – setting up a scenario in which there could be a three-way tie between LSU, Alabama, and Ole Miss. But the Rebels still have a trip to Athens on the schedule. So a Tigers win in this one would give LSU a critical head-to-head advantage over Alabama that could ultimately be the key to sending LSU to Atlanta for a second consecutive year.
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No. 23 Kansas State Wildcats (6-2, 4-1) at No. 7 Texas Longhorns (7-1, 4-1):
9.7 Watchability Score
The model has been pretty dialed in on Texas this season. The Longhorns have been between No. 6 and No. 12 overall each week. The offense has been between No. 8 and No. 16 every week but once, and after beginning the season at No. 16, the defense has been between No. 4 and No. 12 since. This team is legit and might be the best in the Big 12 Conference.
Kansas State’s current power rating of 19.1 and corresponding ranking of No. 12 are both season-bests. Like LSU, my power ratings suggest that this Kansas State team is better than the 2022 team that won the Big 12 Championship. The last time Kansas State finished better than No. 12 in my power ratings was a No. 6 finish in 2012 when Collin Klein and the Wildcats were one upset loss in Waco away from a spot in the BCS National Championship Game.
Kansas State’s defense has been largely what the model expected this year – entering the year No. 25 and currently ranked No. 23. However, the offense has performed much better than expected, rising from No. 26 to No. 11. As a result of the offensive improvement, Kansas State’s power rating has been upgraded 8.3 points since the preseason. Only SMU (+9.3), Jacksonville State (+8.9), and Oregon (8.3) have experienced a larger in-season upgrade.
For as nice of a year as it’s been in Manhattan, Texas represents the best offense, defense, and overall team that the Wildcats will face all season, based on my current numbers. My model gives the Longhorns the advantage on both sides of the ball, and this game is in Austin.
My numbers project Texas to beat Kansas State by 5.5, which equates to a 65% win expectancy for the Longhorns. However, it must be noted that the injury to quarterback Quinn Ewers is not explicitly factored into the model’s projection.
Big 12 Conference Championship Game Implications
Between this game and Bedlam, we will have a much clearer picture of the Big 12 Conference Championship Game race after this week.
The winner of this game will have approximately a three-in-four chance to make it to Arlington, while the loser will have approximately just a one-in-four chance. As one can likely surmise, a 50% swing is massive for a single game. The winner will also remain in the College Football Playoff picture, while the loser will find it challenging to make the four-team field.
College Football Schedule: Week 10 Watchability Scores
Enjoy your college football betting and loaded schedule this week!
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