Best College Football Games This Weekend: Betting Odds Show Top-5 Road Tests
Odds are available across the best college football betting sites as we prepare for Week 12 of the 2023 season. We’ll reveal the best games below and provide the best available sports betting odds in your state. Here is the college football schedule for this weekend, ranked by KFord Ratings Watchability Scores. No. 1 Georgia at No. 18 Tennessee in the SEC and No. 5 Washington at No. 11 Oregon State in the Pac-12 top the list.
2 Best Games This Week By WATCHABILITY SCORES
Watchability is a weighted score of projected quality (average KFord Ratings) and projected competitiveness (projected KFord spread) on a 0-10 scale. Which games are launched to be the best this week? Let’s discuss. Click on the odds below to bet now.
No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (10-0, 7-0) at No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers (7-3, 3-3):
9.6 Watchability Score
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Odds updated November 18th, 2023, at 11:35 pm
It’s safe to say the Georgia offense has hit its stride. This unit is currently ranked a season-best No. 5 nationally and has scored at least 30 points in five straight games. The defense has been great all season and is ranked No. 5 again this week in my unit rankings. Put those two top-5 unit ranks together, and Georgia is back in the top-4 of my power ratings for the first time in over a month. As they seem to do every year this time of year, the Dawgs appear to have found that next gear and are putting it all together down the stretch. Based on my current numbers, Georgia presents the most significant test on both sides of the ball that Tennessee will face all season.
By this point, we all recognize that 2023 Tennessee isn’t entirely on the same level as 2022 Tennessee. But the Vols are still an excellent football team this year, despite the disastrous game in Columbia last week. The offense has taken a step back but still ranks in the top 20 nationally. The defense has exceeded my preseason realistic expectations and currently ranks in the top 25 in the country. Something my model doesn’t explicitly capture: this is a revenge game for the Vols, and the fans in Knoxville would like nothing more than to knock off the freshly minted No. 1 team in the nation…just like Georgia did to Tennessee in Athens last year.
Despite having to play in a hostile road environment, my numbers give the advantage to the Dawgs on both sides of the ball. The model projects Georgia to beat Tennessee by 6.5, which equates to a 68% win expectancy in a game that ranks No. 12 on my list of regular season games with the greatest Watchability Scores.
SEC Championship Implications
The Dawgs have already won the SEC East, and my numbers assign a 34% chance for Georgia to finish the regular season undefeated and knock off Alabama in Atlanta. Look-ahead lines are already available for the SEC Championship Game to be placed on Saturday, December 2. You can click on the odds to bet now.
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No. 5 Washington Huskies (10-0, 7-0) at No. 11 Oregon State Beavers (8-2, 5-2):
9.3 Watchability Score
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Odds updated November 18th, 2023, at 9:53 pm
When a top-five team is an underdog, you know it will be a good game. Washington is having an outstanding season. The Huskies are my No. 6 overachiever to date, and I’ve had them in the top four of my Most Deserving Rankings for five consecutive weeks now. But from a power rating standpoint, my model isn’t sold. Their best power rating this season is No. 8, and I currently have Washington power-rated No. 13.
The Huskies are fantastic on offense. They have been all year – starting at No. 7 in August, rising to No. 1 for one week in October, and settling in at No. 4 for the past month. But the big question all year has been – and continues to be – just how good is the Washington defense? This unit started the year at No. 50 in my preseason projections and quickly moved into the top 25. But after three straight weeks of regression, this unit is now ranked No. 43. This will be a massive test for the Husky defense against the No. 11 Oregon State offense.
The Beavers started the year at No. 24 in my power ratings and have been ranked between that and No. 18, their current rank, all year. The defense has been precisely what I expected – starting the year No. 26 and currently ranking No. 27 – but the No.11 offense has been a delightful surprise this season. Per my historical dataset, this is the best Oregon State team since 2012.
But the secret is out, and the Beavers are a favorite in this one. I’d like their chances to win more if they were an underdog. Washington is feeling disrespected by the Committee and now by Vegas. And with so much still to play for, the Huskies’ motivation in this game should be significant.
My numbers project Washington to beat Oregon State by 2, which equates to a 56% win expectancy for the Huskies.
Pac-12 Championship Game Implications
In the final season of the Pac-12 as we know it, the “Conference of Champions” is going out with a bang.
It doesn’t get any more straightforward than this for the Huskies: win this game, and you’ll be headed to Las Vegas. Even with a loss, Washington is an overwhelming favorite to finish in the top two conference standings.
For Oregon State, a loss all but eliminates the Beavers, but a win would make next week’s Civil War a massive game. It was as if it needed any additional stakes, given that Oregon is leaving for the Big Ten after this season.
College Football Schedule: Week 12 Watchability Scores
Enjoy your college football betting and loaded schedule this week!
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