College Football Betting: Red River Rivalry Headlines Best Games On Schedule This Week
Odds are available across the best college football betting sites as we prepare for Week 6 of the 2023 season. Unlike last week, fans will be pleased to hear Week 6’s two best games are in different television windows on Saturday. The Red River Rivalry between No. 3 Texas and No. 12 Oklahoma tops them all this week. We’ll reveal the rest of the best games below and provide the best available sports betting odds in your state. Here is the college football schedule for this weekend, ranked by KFord Ratings Watchability Scores.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL Betting: 2 Best Games This Week By WATCHABILITY SCORES
Watchability is a weighted score of projected quality (average KFord Ratings) and projected competitiveness (projected KFord spread) on a 0-10 scale. Which games are projected to be the best in Week 6? Let’s discuss. Click on the odds to bet.
No. 12 Oklahoma (5-0, 2-0) vs. No. 3 Texas (5-0, 2-0): 9.8 Watchability Score
The Red River Rivalry in Dallas is easily the Game of the Week and quite possibly the Game of the Year. With a Watchability Score of 9.8, this is the No. 2 on my list of best regular season games, behind only Penn State at Ohio State in Week 8. Before diving into the predictive elements, let’s first look at the resumes.
Texas is the No. 1 team in my Most Deserving Rankings. Due largely to the win in Tuscaloosa, there is only a 9% chance that the average top 25 FBS team would be 5-0 against the Longhorns’ schedule – which ranks No. 1 in the nation. Furthermore, Texas has outscored its opponents by 11.1 points per game, more than would be expected of the average top 25 FBS team against the Longhorns’ schedule – which ranks No. 6 in the nation. Texas has 1.1 more wins than my preseason numbers projected through five weeks.
Oklahoma is No. 7 in my Most Deserving Rankings. The Sooners’ relative scoring margin is +18.4, that’s No. 1 in the country. And while it’s fair to question the overall difficulty of Oklahoma’s schedule to date, there is still a 50% chance that the average top 25 team would be 5-0 against that schedule.
No team has been upgraded by my model more during the season than Oklahoma. The Sooners are up 9.9 points compared to the preseason and have risen from No. 14 to a season-best No. 2 in my ratings. As expected, the offense has been terrific, rising from No. 9 to No. 5 and ranking No. 1 in the Big 12.
However, for as good as the offense has been, the defense has impressed relative to expectations. In year 2 with Brent Venables at the helm, the Sooners’ defense has risen from being projected No. 40 in the preseason to No. 15 currently. Other than this game against Texas, my numbers favor Oklahoma by at least 17 points in each of their remaining regular season contests.
My model already believes, but a win this week would cement the notion that Texas Is Back. I have Texas power-rated No. 6 nationally, where they were to start the year. Like Oklahoma, the offense has been as good as expected, ranking No. 8 nationally. Also similar to the Sooners, the Longhorns defense has been even better than projected. Coming into the year ranked No. 16, Texas’ defense is now ranked No. 4 in the country and No. 1 in the Big 12. Other than this game, my numbers make Texas a favorite of at least 11 points in every remaining regular season game.
My numbers project Oklahoma to win by 1.5, which equates to a 45% chance that Texas takes the Golden Hat back to Austin for the second consecutive year.
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|Team||Current||With a Win||With a Loss|
|No. 12 Oklahoma||82% (1st)||94% (1st)||67% (2nd)|
|No. 3 Texas||69% (2nd)||87% (1st)||56% (2nd)|
No. 11 Alabama (4-1, 2-0) at Texas A&M (4-1, 2-0): 9.6 Watchability Score
With six national championships since 2009, the standard at Alabama is arguably higher than at any other program in America. However, if the Crimson Tide fails to win the national championship this season, it will mark three consecutive years that the trophy doesn’t end up in Tuscaloosa. That would be the longest streak during the Nick Saban era – talk about first-world problems.
Despite ranking a very respectable No. 4 in the power ratings, the 2023 version of the Crimson Tide is not Nick Saban’s best. The last time Alabama’s KFord power rating was worse than it is right now (23.3) was in 2008 (16.6). However, Alabama doesn’t have to be better than its previous versions. It just has to be better than the teams on its schedule. And by numbers, that’s precisely what Alabama is – favored by at least 8.5 points in every remaining regular-season game outside of this week in College Station.
The Tide’s defense is currently the stronger of its two units. After beginning the season at No. 9, the defense fell to No. 19 following the loss at home to Texas but has surged to No. 5 nationally following games at USF, home against Ole Miss, and at Mississippi State, giving up an average of 10 points per game during that span.
Meanwhile, Alabama’s offense entered the season No. 4, rose to No. 2 following the 56-7 win against Middle Tennessee, but has since fallen to No. 20. The Crimson Tide are still outscoring their opponents by 7.7 points more per game than would be expected of the average top 25 FBS against Alabama’s schedule. That relative scoring margin ranks No. 9 nationally. But when the standard is national championships, some will question if No. 9 is good enough.
In the preseason, I had Texas A&M power-rated No. 16 and projected 4.0 wins for the Aggies through five weeks. Texas A&M is No. 16 in the power ratings and 4-1 on the season. The Aggies have performed almost exactly as the model predicted to this point.
There is one notable variation from my preseason projections, though. I projected the Bobby Petrino-led offense to be No. 49 in the country. Through five games, the Aggies have averaged 38.6 points per game against teams with an average power rating rank of No. 65. In the process, Texas A&M’s offense has improved to No. 21. Pair that with the nation’s No. 6 defense and this is the best Aggie team (excluding the COVID-disrupted 2020 season) since Johnny Manziel led A&M to a No. 3 finish in the power ratings on his way to winning the Heisman Trophy in 2012.
Final thoughts for those interested in college football betting: my numbers project Alabama to win by 5.5, which equates to a 35% chance that Texas A&M earns the upset win at home. This is the No. 13 overall game this season by Watchability Scores.
College Football Schedule: Week 6 Watchability Scores
Enjoy watching the college football schedule this week!
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