College Football Betting: Penn State At Ohio State, Tennessee At Alabama Headline Schedule
Odds are available across the best college football betting sites as we prepare for Week 8 of the 2023 season. The best games of the day are spread out across all three Saturday TV windows. We’ll reveal the best games below and provide the best available sports betting odds. Here is the college football schedule for this weekend, ranked by KFord Ratings Watchability Scores. Penn State at Ohio State in the Big 10 and Tennessee at Alabama in the SEC top the list.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL Betting: 2 Best Games This Week By WATCHABILITY SCORES
Watchability is a weighted score of projected quality (average KFord Ratings) and projected competitiveness (projected KFord spread) on a 0-10 scale. Which games are projected to be the best in Week 6? Let’s discuss. Click on the odds to bet.
No. 7 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) at No. 3 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0): 9.9 Watchability Score
This is easily the Game of the Week and quite possibly the Game of the Year. With a Watchability Score of 9.9, this is No. 2 on my list of best regular season games, behind only Ohio State at Michigan in Week 13. Before diving into the predictive elements, let’s first look at the resumes.
Ohio State is No. 4 in my Most Deserving Rankings. There is only a 17% chance the average top 25 FBS team would be undefeated against the Buckeyes’ schedule and Ohio State is outscoring its opponents by 13.0 points per game more than would be expected of the average top 25 FBS team against the Buckeyes’ schedule.
For the fifth straight week, the Buckeyes are No. 1 in my power ratings as the defense has ascended to a season-best No. 4. The Kyle McCord-led offense is currently No. 9 and that unit will need to come ready to play, as Penn State possesses the best opposing defense the Buckeyes will face all season, based on my current numbers.
Currently, Ohio State has a 37% chance to make the Big Ten Championship and a 36% chance to make the College Football Playoff. With a win, those numbers increase to 53% and 58%, respectively. But with a loss, the Buckeyes chances fall to just 11% and 3%, respectively.
Penn State is No. 10 in my Most Deserving Rankings. The Nittany Lions are No. 11 in Record Achievement and No. 2 in Relative Scoring Margin, outscoring their opponents by 16.2 points per game more than would be expected of the average top 25 FBS team – a mark exceeded only by Oklahoma’s 18.2. Furthermore, no team has a better chance to improve its resume with a win this week than Penn State, as there is just an 18% win expectancy for the average top 25 FBS team in Columbus.
With a power rating of 24.9, this is the highest Penn State has been rated all season. The Nittany Lions are currently No. 4, led by a season-best No. 2 defense, which ranks behind only conference foe, Iowa. My numbers suggest the defenses should have the advantage on both sides in this game. However, the difference could be that the No. 21 Penn State offense is the only unit ranked outside the top 10 nationally. Plus, this game is in Columbus.
For Penn State, currently, the Nittany have a 30% chance to make the Big Ten Championship and a 26% chance to make the College Football Playoff. With a win, those numbers increase to 56% and 62%, respectively. With a loss, Penn State would have just a 14% chance to win the East and a 5% chance to make the College Football Playoff.
Big 10 Championship Implications
My numbers project Ohio State to win by 4.5, with a 38% chance Penn State earns its first win against the Buckeyes since 2016 and its first win in Columbus since 2011.
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No. 17 Tennessee (5-1, 2-1) at No. 11 Alabama (6-1, 4-0): 9.5 Watchability Score
The two things I love most about college football are rivalry games and upsets. The Third Saturday in October always checks at least one of those boxes; last year, it checked both. This is the No. 18 overall game in the regular season by Watchability Scores.
Alabama is No. 7 in my Most Deserving Rankings. The Crimson Tide are No. 7 in record achievement and No. 13 in relative scoring margin while the Volunteers are No. 21 and No. 18, respectively.
Alabama’s current power rating of 21.3 and corresponding ranking of No. 10 are both season-lows. This is the first time the Crimson Tide has been No. 10 or worse in my power ratings since 2008. However, Alabama doesn’t have to be better than the previous versions of itself. All the Tide has to do is be better than the teams on its 2023 schedule. And with a 30% chance to finish 11-1, that’s exactly how the model evaluates this team.
Alabama’s offense is currently No. 23, while the defense has been increasingly efficient and is ranked No. 5 nationally, representing the best opposing defense the Volunteers will face all season, based on my current numbers.
Alabama currently has a 70% chance to win the West and an 11% chance to make the College Football Playoff. Those numbers improve to 75% and 16% with a win, respectively. While a loss makes it a 50/50 proposition Alabama makes it to Atlanta and all but eliminates the Tide from Playoff contention.
The model gives the edge to both defenses in this game. But the Tide’s defense is the only top-10 unit in the game. That, plus the fact that this game is in Tuscaloosa, could be the difference.
Tennessee is No. 21 in my Most Deserving Rankings. Only five teams can improve their resume more this week than the Volunteers can with a win in Tuscaloosa, where the average top-25 FBS team would have a win expectancy of just 30%.
Tennessee’s offense is currently ranked a season-low No. 22. However, the defense is currently ranked a season-high No. 14.
The Vols currently have a 14% chance to win the East, and while a win improves that to 23%, a loss drops the Vols’ chances to just 9%.
SEC Championship Implications
My numbers project Alabama to beat Tennessee by 7.5, which equates to a 29% chance the Vols earn their first win in T-Town since 2003.
College Football Schedule: Week 8 Watchability Scores
Enjoy your college football betting and loaded schedule this week!
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