College Football Betting: Oregon at Washington, USC at Notre Dame Headline Best Games On Schedule
Odds are available across the best college football betting sites as we prepare for Week 7 of the 2023 season. The TV windows have not been this unbalanced all season, with five of the seven best-projected games in primetime. But Oregon at Washington in the afternoon window tops the list this week. We’ll reveal the rest of the best games below and provide the best available sports betting odds in your state. Here is the college football schedule for this weekend, ranked by KFord Ratings Watchability Scores.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL Betting: 2 Best Games This Week By WATCHABILITY SCORES
Watchability is a weighted score of projected quality (average KFord Ratings) and projected competitiveness (projected KFord spread) on a 0-10 scale. Which games are projected to be the best in Week 6? Let’s discuss. Click on the odds to bet.
No. 8 Oregon (5-0, 2-0) at No. 7 Washington (5-0, 2-0): 9.8 Watchability Score
This is easily the Game of Week, and it has the potential to be the Game of the Year in the Pac-12, especially with both teams being well-rested coming out of their off week. Before diving into the predictive elements, let’s first look at the resumes.
Washington is No. 10 in my Most Deserving Rankings, the best of any Pac-12 team. With a 39% chance that the average top-25 FBS team would be 5-0 against their schedule, the Huskies rank No. 10 in my record achievement metric. Furthermore, Washington ranks No. 4 in my relative scoring margin metric, outscoring their opponents by 12.7 points per game, more than would be expected of the average top 25 FBS team against their schedule.
Oregon is No. 12 in my Most Deserving Rankings, with the No. 14 record achievement (51%) and No. 2 relative scoring margin (+15.4). Only Oklahoma (+17.4) has a better relative scoring margin than the Ducks.
From the power rating perspective, both of these teams are in the top 10 nationally concerning biggest upgrades compared to preseason ratings. The Ducks are up 8.9 points (No. 3) from the preseason, while the Huskies have been upgraded 7.7 points (No. 8) in-season. Both squads have outstanding offenses – led by Heisman-level quarterbacks in Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. – and defenses that are playing much better than expected coming into the season.
Oregon is currently power-rated at a season-best 23.7, No. 6 nationally. The offense is currently No. 4 and has been in the top six all season. While the defense has been upgraded to a season-best No. 18. Washington has been in the top 10 of the power ratings since Week 4. The Huskies are currently power-rated No. 9. The offense remains No. 2 for the third consecutive week – behind only conference foe, USC – while the defense has been power-rated in the mid-20s nationally for the past month.
This game could come down to which offense has the ball last. My numbers project this as a pick ‘em with a 52% win expectancy for Oregon on the road. This is the No. 6 overall game in the regular season by Watchability Scores.
Pac-12 Championship Implications
The winner will be in the pole position to make the Conference Championship Game, as outlined in my Pac-12 Championship Game Leverage graphic below.
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No. 10 USC (6-0, 4-0) at No. 21 Notre Dame (5-2): 9.4 Watchability Score
The model has been remarkably consistent on Notre Dame this season. Currently power-rated No. 13, Notre Dame has been between No. 10 and No. 13 all season. The offense has been between No. 6 and No. 19 since Week 1, and is currently No. 17. The defense has been even better, bouncing between No. 8 and No. 15 and currently ranked No. 12
My numbers favor the Irish in every remaining regular season game, and assign a 23% chance that Notre Dame finishes the regular season at 10-2. However, this is the eighth game in eight weeks for Notre Dame. The Irish have played on two continents this season and are coming off consecutive road trips to Duke and Louisville, picking up two losses in their last three outings.
It’s fair to ask: how much does Notre Dame have left in the emotional and physical tanks as the Irish prepare for this huge rivalry game? With their College Football Playoff hopes all but gone, what better way for the Irish to pull themselves back up than dealing a huge blow to the Playoff chances of one of their chief rivals?
How many times can I say the same thing about USC? The offense is outstanding and the defense is average. As expected, Caleb Williams, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, and the Trojan offense have been No. 1 since Week 2 after starting the year as the No. 2 projected unit nationally.
But the story for the Trojans, as it was last year, has to be the defense. After giving up 41 points in consecutive weeks to teams power-rated No. 61 and No. 57, this unit has been downgraded to a season-worst No. 63.
As a result, USC’s overall power rating has fallen to a season-worst 16.9 (No. 14). At some point, the defense is going to cost the Trojans a game, and it might very well be this weekend in South Bend, if not against Washington or Oregon later in the year.
My numbers project Notre Dame to win by 2.5, which equates to a 43% chance that USC improves to 7-0 on the season. This is the No. 16 overall game in the regular season by Watchability Scores.
College Football Schedule: Week 7 Watchability Scores
Enjoy your college football betting and loaded schedule this week!
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