The 7 Contenders History Points To In College Football National Title Odds

Before locking in college football bets for the national championship, consider this. College Football Playoff history and the preseason AP Top 25 poll tell us there are only about seven teams likely to claim this year’s title.

Since 2004, all but two national champions debuted in the AP top seven. The exceptions were Auburn in 2010 and Florida State in 2013. This year, the preseason top seven are Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Notre Dame. These seven teams also stand inside the top nine in CFB national championship odds.

Let’s sort out who is the most likely (and least likely) to be playing for a title come Jan. 20.

College Football National Championship Odds

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Georgia Bulldogs ()

Kirby Smart is inevitable. Like the rise of Nick Saban in the late 2000s, Smart has quickly created an infallible dynasty in the works at Georgia. The Bulldogs return QB Carson Beck, one of the top favorites in Heisman Trophy odds, and an embarrassment of riches both offensively and defensively.

But Georgia’s path to the CFP is one of the most difficult in the nation. While its odds to win the SEC sit at , Georgia ranks third in the nation in strength of schedule, per ESPN’s FPI. Per KFord Ratings projections, Georgia’s most likely SEC record outcomes are 7-1 (37%) or 6-2 (31%). The former would certainly be enough to land UGA in the SEC Championship game, but the latter might keep them out. However, a 10-2 Georgia team is nearly a lock to make the CFP field, given its quality of resume at that point.

Georgia’s odds to win it all do bake in the probability that it gets a first-round bye, given only to conference champions. After all, the most efficient path to the title game would be to play fewer playoff games. In the last three years, Georgia has two national championships and an Orange Bowl victory. The Dawgs won their last two bowl games with final scores of 65-7 and 63-3.

Ohio State Buckeyes ()

After three consecutive losses to arch-rival Michigan, Ryan Day pushed all of Ohio State’s chips to the middle. This year, we get to see what happens when the program with the most resources in the nation goes all-in on a championship. The Buckeyes landed the ninth-ranked transfer class on just seven commitments – nearly a third of the average number of the others ranked in the top 10 (20.4 commitments).

But the Big Ten just got tougher. Although three-time reigning champion Michigan lost its coach and a majority of the record-breaking roster to the NFL, the league adds the most dangerous Oregon team since 2014 to the fold. Last time out, Oregon beat Ohio State in Columbus, and the Ducks did so with arguably a worse roster.

Ohio State holds the shortest odds among Power Conference teams to win its league (). However, some power ratings favor inbound Oregon, and the Ducks have a notably easier route – FPI ranks Ohio State’s schedule the 15th-most difficult in the country; Oregon’s ranks 30th. Like Georgia, there are few realities that exist in which a 10-2 Ohio State is left out of the top 12.

The Contenders

Oregon Ducks ()

Despite entering a new and tougher league, Oregon projects as one of the top teams in the nation. Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel transfers into an offensive system proven to maximize efficiency. Gabriel already has nearly 15,000 career passing yards and 125 passing touchdowns (versus just 26 interceptions). He also leads many advanced metrics primed for picking Heisman Trophy winners. This offseason, the sixth-year senior saw his odds drop.

According to KFord Ratings projections, Oregon is the favorite to win more regular season conference games. While its most likely Big Ten record lines to 8-1 (42%), Oregon is as likely to go 9-0 in-league (25%) as it is to go 7-2. The Big Ten race likely has more futures implications than any other conference in the country. That coveted bye week would be a massive swing to whoever claims it as conference champion.

Texas Longhorns ()

Despite moving into the toughest league in college football, Texas is lined as both a fierce contender in the SEC and for the national championship. The Longhorns play the nation’s 10th-toughest schedule. That schedule includes Michigan, Oklahoma, and Georgia. More importantly, Texas returns 67% of its roster production from last year – a roster that led the ‘Horns to a College Football Playoff berth and features Heisman contender QB Quinn Ewers.

Because of the degree of difficulty on the schedule, Texas is lined at +590 to go undefeated, per FanDuel Sportsbook. Those odds fall longer than Liberty, Utah, and Notre Dame. Previously in the SEC, undefeated marks were usually needed to make it to Atlanta. But with two blue blood programs entering and divisions axed, there’s nowhere to hide. Should the SEC victor emerge unbeaten, they’ll likely be an odds-on favorite for college football bets to win the Natty after the bracket is revealed.

Only three of past 16 teams moving up in class to a new conference had a winning conference record in the first year. The theory is the new team has to get familiar with many new opponents, while the existing conference teams are only unfamiliar with the re-aligning programs. That means far less prep for the current teams vs. teams moving to the new conference.

Editor’s Note

Alabama Crimson Tide ()

Despite losing the greatest college football coach of all time this offseason, Alabama projects to roll on. The coach they hired, Washington’s Kalen DeBoer, has a ridiculous 37-9 record in the FBS (.804) at Washington and Fresno State. DeBoer led Washington to a national championship berth just two seasons after taking over a 4-8 squad. His hiring prompted QB Jalen Milroe to stay put, although other pieces did depart in the transfer portal.

Alabama’s route to the CFP is as difficult as anyone’s. Per FPI, the Tide’s schedule ranks sixth-toughest this season. Where its odds falter is thanks to Alabama being lined at to win the SEC and receive that first-round bye – third-shortest behind Georgia and Texas.

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Ole Miss Rebels ()

The “Transfer King,” Lane Kiffin, flexed his recruiting chops this offseason. Ole Miss brings in a pair of highly-touted defensive linemen (Princely Umanmielen and Walter Nolan) and South Carolina standout WR Antwane Wells. Those additions complement a roster already returning 70% of its production (24th). Ole Miss also plays the 22nd-ranked strength of schedule and third-easiest among the teams listed in this post.

Ole Miss would be the biggest shakeup to the CFB landscape, should they compete for a national championship. Last year’s 11 wins marked the most in program history. The Rebels have just one assigned national championship, a 1960 title awarded by the FWAA. However, Ole Miss is 5-2 in New Year’s Six bowls since 2000 and 12-7 in them all-time. Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is just 2-6 outright as an underdog – a position they would almost surely find themselves in during the playoff – and Kiffin is a career 10-23 against ranked opponents, including previous stints at USC and Tennessee.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish ()

Notre Dame’s title odds will be incongruent with their AP Poll and CFP ranking all year long. Since the Irish don’t play in a conference, they cannot secure a first-round bye and will always have a tougher postseason route to the championship. However, the Irish also wanted it this way to potentially secure a first-round home game in South Bend.

That’s why, despite ranking seventh in the debut 2024 AP Top 25, Notre Dame’s odds fall further down the board behind teams like LSU and Penn State, who did not debut in that same top seven.

But the route to the postseason is favorable for Notre Dame. ND has the easiest strength of schedule among these top seven teams, per FPI (55th) – one that features eight teams outside the top 50 in preseason aggregate power rankings. Notre Dame is favored in three of its four toughest games (at USC, vs. Louisville, vs. Florida State). The Irish are only lined as a underdog at Texas A&M as of Aug. 13.

Best of luck with your college football bets this season.

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