College Football Week 6 Best Betting Tips, Picks: Odds, Spreads, Player Props
One of the biggest weekends on the 2023 college football schedule kicks off Saturday. The weekend begins with the Red River Showdown and a ranked matchup between LSU and Missouri. Primetime features two more ranked matchups in Kentucky-Georgia and Notre Dame-Louisville. With five weeks of usable data points, let’s uncover some college football picks for this weekend.
On the season, my college football best bets from this article are a profitable 22-17 (56.4%). Here’s to hoping for continued success, as these bets have also beaten the closing line by an average of 2.55 points per play. Browse our college football odds boards to find lines on every game.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 6 PICKS, BEST BETS
Nebraska at Illinois, FRI, 8:00 p.m. ET
Avert your eyes, fans of good, clean football. Nebraska defended its title as the butt of the college football world’s jokes multiple times this year. Jeff Sims reportedly still isn’t 100%, per Marcus Satterfield, leaving the door open for Heinrich Haarberg to make another start – probably for the betterment of the Huskers’ offense. Haarberg hasn’t been effective, but he’s been far from disastrous and a step up in confidence from the Big Ten’s leading turnover machine in Sims.
On the other side, Illinois has been highly disappointing. Their two wins this season came over Toledo and FAU (down their starting QB), and both arguably could have resulted in Illini losses. Luke Altmyer leads the nation with seven interceptions thrown, and leading rusher Reggie Love isn’t guaranteed to play. The major difference between these two teams is their confidence in leaning on the defense. The Illinois defense – after losing multiple NFL Draft picks and their play caller – ranks 123rd in EPA per play.
Just six teams nationally have a worse net field starting position than Illinois this year (Parker Fleming). While both teams would classify as “awful,” Nebraska has the better defense and has shown moderate signs of life on one side of the ball – more than what Illinois can boast so far.
Brett’s bet: Nebraska +3.5 (-110)
Best available number: Nebraska
- We’ve ranked the best college football betting sites this season so you can be confident you are betting on the best apps.
Maryland at Ohio State, 12:00 p.m. ET
Maryland has played five opponents so far this year, and none of them rank in the top 98 in EPA per play (Towson-FCS, Charlotte, Virginia, Michigan State, Indiana). Their last two opponents fired their head coach and offensive coordinator, respectively. Now, the Terps head to Columbus to face Ohio State, the nation’s No. 15 team in schedule-adjusted EPA on offense. Ohio State had a bonus week to prepare for Maryland (no lookahead with Purdue up next), coming off an emotional victory over Notre Dame.
The Buckeyes have a point to prove after scoring just 23 points in their Big Ten opener at Indiana and more questions than answers. This is a play based on the massive disparity in strength of schedule thus far.
Arizona at USC, 10:30 p.m. ET
I outlined the premise for this bet in this week’s college football upset alert piece. USC is in a precarious scheduling spot coming off a nail-biter with Colorado (if not only late) and travels to Notre Dame next week. From there on out, the meat of the Trojans’ schedule sets in, with Utah, Washington, Oregon, and UCLA still left on the schedule. USC’s defense continues to be a disaster and, even without Jayden de Laura potentially in the lineup, Arizona may be able to find the end zone enough times to cover this three-touchdown spread.
Brett’s bet: Arizona +21.5 (-110)
Best available number: Arizona
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 6 Player PROPs
Note: College football picks on player props are not available in every state that offers CFB game betting. Find out whether college football prop betting is legal in your state here.
Texas WR AD Mitchell: Over 4.5 Receptions (+144)
Xavier Worthy leads Texas in targets this year, but transfer AD Mitchell trails by just three through five games. To bet over Worthy’s receptions prop (4.5) costs far more juice than betting Mitchell over. Last year, it was No. 2 Jordan Whittington that led the team in receiving in a 49-0 rout of Oklahoma. With the Sooners’ focus being the All-American Worthy, Mitchell should see plenty of work. Against Kansas, Mitchell saw 13 targets, the most on the team.
Maryland RB Roman Hemby: Under 48.5 Rush Yards (-114)
FanDuel Sportsbook posted an errant 48.5 rush yards for Hemby that was still up at the time of writing. It is now 42.5 at the time of publishing, but TheLines.com’s Discord members were notified at 48.5. Don’t miss the best odds! Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord to get real-time bets as our staff places them. Sign up for notifications in the #roles server.
Notre Dame’s front pushed around Ohio State’s front seven, but they still held top running back Audric Estime to a season-low 70 yards. Maryland’s offensive line has struggled against inferior talent, getting just 0.52 line yards against Indiana, having 50% of their runs stopped at two yards or fewer against Virginia, and failing to get a serious push against Charlotte.
Of course, Hemby is an explosive runner. But Dan Enos has shown the propensity to pull him in high-leverage situations and, sometimes, for multiple drives in a row.