College Football Week 5 Best Betting Tips, Picks: Odds, Spreads, Player Props
There’s no slowing it down, the 2023 college football season presses on. Coming off a monumental Week 4, this weekend dives headlong into conference play and rivalries. The landscape of college football odds boards continues to take shape in one of the more tightly-contested seasons in recent memory. For Week 5, there’s plenty of value on the board for this week’s college football picks and best bets. Finally, we can begin using just in-season data to more accurately project our bets.
On the season, college football best bets from this article are a profitable 19-15 (55.9%). Here’s to hoping for continued success, as these bets are also beating the closing line by an average of 2.55 points per play.
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Jacksonville State at Sam Houston State, THURS, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sam Houston State is off to a historically bad start on offense. Through three games as a member of the FBS, they’ve scored one total touchdown and average a paltry 3.3 points per game. Last week, the Bearkats made a change at quarterback, giving the nod to former Arizona QB Grant Gunnell. They scored on the opening drive and then not again en route to a 38-7 drubbing to Houston.
At its core, this is a bet on whether Jacksonville State will score two or more touchdowns. Despite lacking in size, the defense is athletic and physical and should be more than capable of applying the breaks to a puttering SHSU offense. The Bearkats’ offensive line generates good push, but their backs lack vision and explosiveness. The Gamecocks are a sure-tackling defense that will take away second-level yards in the run game.
Until SHSU shows an ounce of life offensively, they’ll continue to be a favorite fade target.
Brett’s bet: Jacksonville State -6.5 (-110)
Best available number: Jacksonville State
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Indiana at Maryland, 3:30 p.m. ET
Not many teams get off to worse starts this season than Maryland. They average a +4.3 scoring margin in first halves, only helped along by a 17-point halftime lead against Michigan State. In the second half, that scoring margin jumps to +18.3.
This week, the Terps host an Indiana team with a frisky defense. The Hoosiers play physical and fast, holding Ohio State to 23 points earlier in the season. Tom Allen & Co. love nothing more this season than to muck a game up, drag their opponent down to their level, and force them into a rock fight. While the shtick falls apart after halftime, Indiana’s surprised some teams out of the gate.
So, I’m targeting the first half of this game and staying far away from the full game spread.
Brett’s bet: Indiana 1H +7.5 (-114)
Best available number: Indiana 1H
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern, 7:00 p.m. ET
Tim Beck has effectively tanked Coastal Carolina. Though there’s no replicating Jamey Chadwell’s offensive system, the Chanticleers have fully regressed from creativity and sensible game decisions, nerfing star Grayson McCall in the process. The defense remains far below the FBS average, and without a creative and efficient offensive system, the Chants can no longer offset the shortcomings of their stop unit.
Georgia Southern, on the other hand, fields a downfield threat at QB, Davis Brin, and a surprisingly stout defense. The Eagles held Wisconsin to just seven first-half points and the string only unraveled when Georgia Southern gave up five inopportune turnovers that led to short fields. The following week, they held Ball State to just three points.
Though on a couple days’ rest disadvantage, Georgia Southern handles their Sun Belt foe at home. Until the market fully adjusts, I’ll fade Beck at every opportunity.
Brett’s bet: Georgia Southern -6 (-110)
Best available number: Georgia Southern
Texas State at Southern Miss, 7:00 p.m. ET
Perhaps the surprise of last week – one that got buried under all the high-level matchups – was that Southern Miss was beaten soundly by Arkansas State. The Golden Eagles fully realized the impact of DC Austin Armstrong’s departure, allowing 44 points to the previously ranked worst team in the FBS. Southern Miss was able to score 33 points of their own, but Arkansas State offers little in terms of defensive resistance.
Perhaps the over/under for this game was set in its place due to the idea that Texas State is an offensive juggernaut under GJ Kinne and in the recent result of Southern Miss scoring 33 points. But the fact of the matter is, the Golden Eagles have no offensive threat outside of workhorse back Frank Gore Jr. The Bobcats field a respectable defense, with lineman Ben Bell leading the country in pass rush win rate.
Texas State has also shown a propensity to get into lower-scoring rock fights, like their game against rival UTSA. They offer a balanced offense (50.3% rush rate) and Southern Miss runs a new play every 26.6 seconds (80th).
Brett’s bet: Under 62.5 points (-110)
Best available number: Under
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 5 PROP PICKS
Note: College football picks on player props are not available in every state that offers CFB game betting. Find out whether college football prop betting is legal in your state here.
Louisville WR Jamari Thrash: O85.5 receiving yards (-115)
Jack Plummer’s top target averages 21.1 yards per reception this year with an average depth of target at 13.4 yards. Trash matches up with an NC State cornerback corps severely underperforming. Shyheim Battle allows 19.7 yards per reception (16 targets) and Aidan White has allowed a pair of scores, 22.3 yards per reception, and over a 50% catch rate when targeted. I’m targeting over his receiving yards – lofty though they are – in this individual mismatch.
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