Miami vs. Florida Prediction, Odds & Picks for Nov. 2: Thomas Haugh Leads Gators

Written By Justin Bales | Published at November 2, 2026

The Florida Gator's senior forward, Thomas Haugh, is featured throughout our Miami vs. Florida prediction for Monday, Nov 2.

The Miami Hurricanes and Florida Gators will face off in a neutral-site, top-25 matchup in Tampa, Fla. Our Miami vs. Florida prediction covers odds, betting trends, and best bets for Monday’s college basketball matchup.

The Hurricanes enter the season ranked 14th in the country. Their combination of returning production and transfers has them projected to finish fourth in the ACC.

The Gators are ranked first in the country to start the 2026-27 season. They're the overwhelming favorites to win the SEC, returning the majority of their key players from last season.

Miami vs. Florida Odds

These are two teams with high hopes entering the 2026-27 season. Both bring legitimate Final Four aspirations into the season. Florida is a neutral-site favorite via DraftKings Sportsbook:

Spread: Miami +4.5 (-108) / Florida -4.5 (-112)
Moneyline: Miami (+170) / Florida (-205)
Total: Over 160.5 (-112) / Under 160.5 (-108)

The oddsmakers expect a high-scoring game, with the Gators at a 67.2% implied win probability, according to our Probability Calculator.

Check the latest odds before betting, as lines tend to shift throughout the week.

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Miami Hurricanes Betting Trends

The Hurricanes are returning several key contributors, including Malik Reneau, Shelton Henderson, and Dante Allen. They also added several pieces via the transfer portal, including Acaden Lewis and Somto Cyril. Robert Miller III, Brent Bland, Nick Dorn, and DeSean Goode could all play roles off the bench as transfers. Here are some trends for Miami (FL):

The Hurricanes were 29-6 straight up and 18-15-1 ATS last season.
The Over was 21-12-1 in Miami games in 2025-26.
Miami (FL) ranked 36th in offensive efficiency last season.
The Hurricanes ranked 170th in possessions per game (70.9) in 2025-26.

Miami lost a closed scrimmage to South Florida this offseason, but that’s all the information we have. They also beat Vanderbilt 109-96 in an exhibition game. Lewis (23 points), Gaskins (20), and Henderson (17) led the offense in that game.

Reneau didn’t play in that game, which opened extra shots for the rest of the team. Gaskins drew the start for him and scored 20 points on only eight field-goal attempts and four free-throw attempts. Reneau should command a significantly larger offensive role on a nightly basis, which will take away from others.

Florida Gators Betting Trends

Boogie Fland, Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, and Rueben Chinyelu all return after starting last season for the Gators. Urban Klavzar and Isaiah Brown will also return as key pieces off the bench this season. Denzel Aberdeen returns to Florida after one season at Kentucky, and he’s expected to be the final starter. Here are some trends for Florida:

The Gators were 27-8 straight up and 18-17 ATS last season.
The Over was 14-20-1 in Florida games in 2025-26.
Florida ranked eighth in offensive efficiency last season.
The Gators ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency in 2025-26.

Florida lost a close exhibition game to Baylor in the offseason. It ended 82-76, with all five Florida starters scoring in double figures. Haugh led the way with 19 points, while Chinyelu was the only player to record a double-double.

The Gators followed that up with an easy 85-68 win over Stetson. Fland didn’t play, shifting Klavzar into the starting lineup. He scored a team-high 24 points, while hitting six 3-pointers. Aberdeen also scored 22 points, with Condon and Haugh also scoring in double figures.

Miami vs. Florida Prediction: Thomas Haugh Over 16.5 Points

Thomas Haugh Over 16.5 points is my favorite Miami vs. Florida prediction.

Haugh broke out for the Florida Gators in his junior season last year. He averaged 17.1 points on 11.8 field-goal attempts, 5.2 3-point attempts, and 5.9 free-throw attempts in 33.3 minutes per game. He scored 17 or more points in 22 of his 34 games in 2025-26.

Haugh is a three-level scorer for Florida, giving him multiple ways to find points. He’s outstanding at drawing fouls, and his ability to attack the basket, draw fouls, or shoot from outside takes away some of his volatility. If one scoring method isn’t working, he can shift to the next one.

The Gators lost an exhibition game to Baylor in the offseason, but Haugh scored 19 points in that game. He played a team-high 39 minutes, finding points at all three levels. He also recorded 14 points in 33 minutes in an easy win over Stetson.

Best Bet: Thomas Haugh Over 16.5 points (-105 @ DraftKings Sportsbook)

More Miami vs. Florida Picks, Props and Best Bets

Here are a few more Miami vs. Florida betting angles to consider:

Florida -4.5 Spread (-112 @ DraftKings Sportsbook) - Florida returns the majority of its key pieces for this season. Denzel Aberdeen returns after one season at Kentucky to replace Xavian Lee. Early in the season, I favor teams with elite returning continuity, as other teams continue to try to figure out their rotations.
Miami/Florida Over 160.5 Points (-112 @ DraftKings Sportsbook) - Miami scored 109 points in its exhibition game against Vanderbilt, and Florida has several high-end offensive pieces. Their defense is expected to be elite, but Miami should be able to push the pace and find baskets in transition.
Malik Reneau Over 17.5 Points (-105 @ DraftKings Sportsbook) - Reneau averaged 18.9 points in 29.0 minutes per game for Miami last season. He can score in multiple ways, but he consistently attacks the basket. The Hurricanes have several new players, but this offense should continue to run through their veteran big man.

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