2024 College Basketball Contenders With Sports Betting Odds, Implied Probability
One of the final headliners in the college basketball transfer portal chose a new home Monday. According to numerous reports, North Dakota State center Grant Nelson is expected to commit to Alabama. Hence, there’s no better time to dissect the most appealing college basketball odds in the market.
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Assessing College Basketball Odds
For the sake of continuity, let’s focus on Caesars Sportsbook, which possesses the best combination of both prices and limits among nationwide operators for this given market. Although the implied probability that is listed may not appear worth betting in general, consider that UConn had as low as a 1.23% chance to cut down the nets ahead of the 2022-23 regular season.
In fact, plenty of our readers cashed in on similar odds after I wagered on the Huskies in late November. You can join TheLines.com free sports betting Discord channel to subscribe for notifications when I or any of our staff members place a bet.
Houston: | 3.23%
Kalvin Sampson’s team fell short of regional final in March as a 1-seed. Don’t let that result fool you. One of the newest Big 12 entrants showcases a roster that will not only benefit from a fiercer league but can also compete in it.
Incoming transfers LJ Cryer (Baylor) and Damian Dunn (Temple) gift Sampson a pair of playmakers to team up with veteran returnee Jamal Shead. Despite losing five-star Jarace Walker, the Cougars boast their fair share of frontcourt athleticism to remain a contentious force at the rim.
Keep in mind, Houston has posted a top-five near proximity (layups, dunks, tip-ins) field goal percentage versus the average opponent in each of the last two seasons (per Haslametrics).
Creighton: | 3.23%
Bettors will look beyond Omaha, Neb. with Ryan Nembhard (Gonzaga) and Arthur Kaluma (Kansas State) bolting town. However, the Bluejays could wind up in a superior position without them.
That’s because Greg McDermott will employ a more typical cast of marksmen in his starting five. Steven Ashworth, a First Team All-Mountain West Conference selection, is an elite shooter. Mason Miller, son of Mike Miller, will continue to develop after seeing just 9.1 minutes per game as a frosh. Couple them with Baylor Scheierman and Ryan Kalkbrenner returning for another year, along with Trey Alexander, who should take a massive leap as the lead guard.
UConn, Marquette, Villanova, and St. John’s have received a heavy dose of offseason hoopla. Don’t be stunned if the Bluejays win the league, though.
Alabama: | 1.64%
Yes, the Crimson Tide lost their entire frontcourt from last season. But similar to Crieghton, this group could resemble more of Nate Oats’ pace-and-space philosophy if he’s willing to play Nelson at the five. Remember, rim-protector Charles Bediako manned the middle in 2022-23.
But Nelson, containing guard-like skills in a big man’s body, must rediscover his 3-point stroke. There’s also Aaron Estrada, the Hofstra transfer who’s a high-level scorer while exhibiting an ever-improving perimeter game himself. If budding sophomore Rylan Griffin takes a step in right direction, the Tide advertise a gaudy offensive ceiling.
Alabama even retains half of its starting backcourt — comprised of veteran Mark Sears and now-Memphis Tiger Jahvon Quinerly. Sears, the former Ohio Bobcat, shot 34.5% from behind the arc during his first year in Tuscaloosa, Ala.
Maryland: | 1.64%
Surprising to some, Kevin Willard’s bunch displays the 10th-rated “effective talent” score (via Bart Torvik). For context, it ranks ahead of Houston in that category — partially influenced by the reinsertion of Jahmir Young, Julian Reese, and Donta Scott. In particular, Reese ascended into a top-10 player in the second half of last season (per hoop-explorer) after dealing with an up-and-down freshman campaign amid a midseason coaching change.
The Terrapins accrued a top-20 recruiting class to boot, led by a pair of athletic wings in DeShawn Harris-Smith and Jamie Kaiser. If they live up to their billing, there’s no reason why Maryland can’t contend for a Big Ten title. These March Madness odds are my only wager in this market so far.
Colorado: | 1.23%
USC has garnered much of the Pac-12 buzz thus far, thanks to Boogie Ellis returning and the addition of five-star frosh Isaiah Collier. The Trojans reeled in four-star Bronny James, the son of LeBron James, as well.
But look out for the Buffalos, which have seen their title odds sliced nearly in half since they were initially released. Tad Boyle has K.J. Simpson and Tristan Da Silva, a Pac-12 Player of the Year candidate, at his disposal once again. He also hauled in forward Cody Williams, the seventh-ranked recruit nationally, and former TCU center Eddie Lampkin.
The latter dealt with an injury-plagued 2022-23, yet he tallied the sixth-highest offensive rebounding rate in his freshman go-around.
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