College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions Today: Will Virginia Upset No. 21 Memphis?
Among Wednesday’s odds for college basketball, the No. 21 Memphis Tigers (8-2) face the Virginia Cavaliers (6-4) in John Paul Jones Arena. Neither team finds itself in my college basketball power rankings. Let’s evaluate the odds for Memphis at Virginia, including possible same-game parlay options.
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Memphis at Virginia: spread, moneyline, total
Virginia vs. Memphis Player Props
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My Pick: Virginia ATS
As I noted on my college basketball podcast, Memphis’ perimeter shooting (44.3%, ranked second nationally) benefited from the soft rims at the Maui Invitational. Two-time transfer Tyrese Hunter remained scorching hot at Clemson on Saturday, but the Tigers’ prowess from behind the arc will dip eventually. Their attempt rate is a telling sign, ranking well below the D-I average.
Hunter and Co. have also shot 55.8% on unguarded triples (via Synergy) — another unsustainable long-term clip.
Enter the Hoos, struggling to find an identity under Ron Sanchez after longtime coach Tony Bennett abruptly retired before the season. Sanchez has carried on with Bennett’s pack-line defense, which prevents dribble penetration while surrendering some open looks from deep.
Thus, there’s a chance that Memphis doesn’t cool off in Charlottesville, Va. However, compared to my raw numbers, the betting market is overvaluing the Tigers after they closed as 5.5-point underdogs against Clemson.
Moreover, Penny Hardaway’s unit is vulnerable against perimeter-oriented offenses because it runs drop coverage. Conversely, Virginia’s four-out attack settles in the 80th percentile regarding spot-up jumpers on a points-per-possession basis.
If Isaac McKneely and the rest of the Hoos’ marksmen continue to shoot well, look for them to keep this one close. Remember that Virginia suffered a 23-point loss at Memphis last season. Don’t think it has forgotten about this result.
Related: Bet on Texas A&M’s Final Four futures odds?
Final Thoughts
Per the betslip below, I placed a bet on Virginia +5.5 (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook on Wednesday morning. Monitor the market as this point spread may resurface.
I like the ’Hoos down to +4.5 (-115), especially with Kansas State transfer Dai Dai Ames (ankle) set to return after missing the last game-plus.
Good or bad, I’m always transparent with my wagers, which you will see in our free sports betting Discord channel. Head to the #roles server to enroll in these push notifications. So far, my college basketball plays have gone 3-3 (+0.05 units).
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