College Basketball Odds & Big Ten Semifinal Picks: Will Wisconsin Upset Michigan State?

On Saturday's college basketball odds board, the top-seeded Michigan State Spartans (26-6, 17-3) will face the fifth-seeded Wisconsin Badgers (23-9, 14-6) in the 2025 Big Ten Tournament semis. The Spartans opened as 1.5-point favorites, and the market came in swiftly on Tom Izzo's squad. Let's assess the betting odds and my picks for Michigan State vs. Wisconsin, including potential same-game parlay options.

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Michigan state vs. wisconsin odds: spread, moneyline, total

March Madness Odds

With our March Madness odds comparison table, bettors can search for the best futures betting odds for MSU, Wisconsin, or any other team.

College basketball best bets: Michigan state or wisconsin ats?

When these teams squared off on March 2, the Spartans won and covered, largely thanks to Wisconsin shooting 15.6% from behind the arc. It was their worst three-point performance of the season, but it wasn't a one-off.

Ahead of the Badgers' dominant win over UCLA in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals, they ranked 312th nationally in net three-point clip (-6.4%) over last month. A group as talented as Wisconsin, ranked 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjO) per Haslametrics, will likely inherit a dose of positive variance following a stretch of this nature.

After receiving some against the Bruins, I expect it to continue in their rematch with MSU. On the surface, the Spartans boast the sport's second-best perimeter defense (27.8%).

However, their opponents have mustered a lowly 32.4% clip on unguarded three-pointers. Against an opponent like John Tonje and Co., their fortune may finally take a turn for the worst.

To boot, two-guard Max Klesmit, who has massively underperformed his usual efficiency from deep in previous years, missed their first contest with a lower leg injury. Klesmit hasn't rediscovered his stroke since returning to the court in Indianapolis, yet his presence should pay dividends regardless.

If the Badgers' length, led by Steven Crawl and Nolan Winter, also limits Michigan State's second-chance opportunities, Greg Gard's bunch should keep this one close or emerge victorious.

The winner will face Michigan or Maryland in the Big Ten tournament championship Sunday afternoon.

Final Betting Thoughts

If I place a bet on this tilt, you'll find it on our free sports betting Discord channel, where you can enroll in push notifications in the #roles server. Good luck with your bets on Michigan State vs. Wisconsin odds!

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