College Basketball Odds & Picks: Will Xavier Upset St. John’s?

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
St. John's Xavier Odds

On Wednesday’s college basketball odds board, the No. 20 St. John’s Red Storm (16-3, 7-1) host the Xavier Musketeers (12-7, 4-4) at Madison Square Garden. Both teams are near the tail end of my latest college basketball power rankings. However, the Johnnies are St. John’s Red Storm -6.5 (-108) on FanDuel favorites — with a total of 136.5 (-105) on FanDuel. Let’s break down the odds for St. John’s vs. Xavier, including same-game parlay options.

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xavier at st. john’s odds: spread, moneyline, total

St. John’s vs. Xavier: Player Props

College Basketball Futures Odds

Search for the best futures betting odds for St. John’s, Xavier, or any other team below. For more March Madness odds, click “Show all bets.”

College basketball best bets: xavier ATS

The rematch of St. John’s vs. Xavier odds is one of my favorite situational spots of the week. This term refers to conditions in which teams have surpassed or fallen short of their usual performance level — relative to the moneyline or point spread.

The Musketeers are out for revenge after losing to the Red Storm, 81-71, at the Cintas Center on Jan. 7. Additionally, it’s a sell-high opportunity on St. John’s following 11 wins in its last 12 games.

The Red Storm closed as 1.5-point road favorites in their last meeting. If you factor in home-court advantage here, the market hasn’t adjusted for either team.

My raw numbers disagree, especially since St. John’s combo guard Deivon Smith (shoulder) is on the shelf. With Smith on the floor, the Johnnies’ eFG% rises by four percentage points. He’s also their premier ballhawk.

Conversely, the Musketeers have made significant strides, with Zach Freemantle seemingly healthy. Over their last five games, they rank 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD), correlating with the 6-foot-9 veteran’s improvement at that end.

They also surrender their fair share of shots in the mid-range, where the Red Storm are far less effective (41st percentile) than last season. Granted, Xavier’s woes on the glass aren’t ideal against Zuby Ejiofor, one of the sport’s best offensive rebounders.

But like the first tilt, Sean Miller’s elite fast-break attack sets up nicely if the Musketeers are more proficient on the boards. The Johnnies’ transition defense has settled in the eighth percentile since New Year’s Eve (via CBB Analytics), primarily because of Rick Pitino’s commitment to tallying second-chance looks.

St. John’s vs. Xavier Odds: Final Thoughts

On Tuesday evening, I placed a wager on Xavier +8.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook, which you will find on our sports betting Discord channel. To enroll in push notifications, head to the #roles server. I also put 0.10 units on the Musketeers to make the Final Four (+4300) at the same operator.

Considering I’m higher on Xavier than the market, it’s a solid buy-point for a borderline NCAA tournament team — set up to go on a run now that it’s fully healthy.

When searching for value among these odds, I pinpoint rosters with a higher offensive ceiling than they’ve demonstrated and reliable defense. The Musketeers present both via their floor-spacing attack. Moreover, five of their seven losses have come by six points or fewer, a sign of potential positive variance to come. In fact, they received some in Saturday’s two-point win at No. 10 Marquette.

Check out the podcast below for a further breakdown. Good luck with your bets on St. John’s vs. Xavier odds!

watcH: xavier at st. john’s betting preview

YouTube video preview d7yqogXSWSM
Photo by Associated Press/Aaron Gash

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