College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions Today: Will Texas Tech Upset Iowa State?
On Saturday’s college basketball odds board, the Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-3, 2-1) host the No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones (13-1, 3-0) at United Supermarkets Arena. The Cyclones, power-rated behind only Tennessee and Auburn in this week’s edition of my college basketball power rankings, opened as short road favorites. The total is currently 158 (-109) on BetRivers. Let’s evaluate the odds for Iowa State at Texas Tech, including same-game parlay options.
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iowa state at texas tech odds: spread, moneyline, total
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College basketball betting Pick: Texas Tech +1
Per my college basketball power ratings, I’m incredibly bullish on Iowa State. But considering Texas Tech possesses one of the premier home-court advantages in college basketball, my raw numbers make Grant McCasland’s team a slight favorite.
The Red Raiders have tallied consecutive victories at BYU and Utah after UCF’s red-hot shooting handed them a loss in their Big 12 opener. Bettors could argue their typical HCA is somewhat mitigated following back-to-back games in altitude.
However, Texas Tech is in dire need of a statement win for its NCAA tournament resume. I expect a highly motivated effort after a few days off.
Red Raiders’ Matchup Advantages
This contest should boil down to which team controls the tempo. The Cyclones present a run-and-gun attack aided by forcing the 18th-highest turnover rate nationally. Nevertheless, the Red Raiders aren’t prone to accumulating many giveaways.
According to Synergy, their defense is also elite at limiting transition opportunities (90th percentile). When opponents find a way to push the pace, they’ve held them to a below-average 0.99 points per possession (PPP). McCasland’s defense quietly shows strengths that North Texas demonstrated during his tenure in Denton.
Conversely, Texas Tech’s floor-spacing offense is built to find success against the Cyclones’ no-middle structure. The Red Raiders showcase four high-volume shooters who boast at least a 36.5% clip from behind the arc. Derrion Williams, a 6-foot-6 playmaking wing, is just below this threshold (34.7%).
After blitzing Baylor’s banged-up unit and the lowly Utes, Iowa State’s 3-point defense, susceptible to allowing open triples, is bound for some regression in league play (26.2%). Unless the Red Raiders fall victim to an off-shooting day, they’re primed to take advantage.
Final Thoughts
Look for Texas Tech to play competitively throughout and presumably win straight up. Good or bad, I’m transparent with my bets, which you’ll find in our sports betting Discord channel. Head to the #roles server to enroll in push notifications.
So far, I’m 7-9 (+0.13 units), betting on college basketball. Best of luck with your picks for Iowa State at Texas Tech odds!
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