College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions Today: Will Texas A&M Upset Florida?
With less than three weeks until Selection Sunday, college basketball odds have captured the spotlight. I'll highlight two SEC situational spots for Saturday's slate, attempting to uncover circumstances in which teams often exceed or fall short of their usual performance level — relative to the moneyline or spread. Let's assess the odds for No. 12 Texas A&M at No. 3 Florida and Arkansas at South Carolina, including a few options for your same-game parlays.
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Arkansas at south carolina: spread, moneyline, total
College Basketball Best Bet: South Carolina ATS
After consecutive wins over Missouri and Texas, the Razorbacks have positioned themselves on the right side of the latest bracketology odds. However, they'll likely suit up without stud forward Aideu Thiero (knee), who missed Wednesday's victory over the Longhorns. If there was ever a letdown spot for Arkansas, we've arrived.
Since Alabama blitzed the Gamecocks on Jan. 8, they've covered the number in every game at Colonial Life Arena, including highly competitive matchups against Auburn and Florida.
Moreover, Arkansas' post-up defense already grades below the D-I average when Thiero's physical presence is on the court, settling in the 34th percentile on a points-per-possession basis (via Synergy). I expect South Carolina, which doesn't present many positive attributes offensively outside of its low-post action, to take full advantage of Thiero's projected absence.
In particular, budding sophomore forward Collin Murray-Boyles is a reliable source of production in the paint, delivering 16.1 points per game in the last month. If the Gamecocks are efficient enough in the half-court to limit the Razorbacks' transition opportunities, they'll have a shot at pulling off the upset.
Per the opening odds for Arkansas at South Carolina, the Gamecocks are 1.5-point underdogs.
Final Betting Thoughts
Let's see how the market fluctuates before betting on South Carolina ATS. You'll find all my picks on our free sports betting Discord channel. Users can enroll in push notifications via the #roles server to secure instant alerts.
Best of luck with your bets on Arkansas at South Carolina odds!
texas a&m at Florida: spread, moneyline, total
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas A&M ATS
The third-ranked Gators return home after their six-game winning streak was snapped versus Georiga. On the surface, this line suggests that Florida will rebound and dominate the reeling Aggies, losers of three straight.
Not so fast. In February, Texas A&M experienced the third-worst perimeter variance in college basketball, tallying a net 3-point clip of -8.5%. Although Wade Taylor and Co. rank 325th in 3-point efficiency (30.6%), they've struggled to reach this percentage over the last month.
Per ShotQuality, Florida's defense is bound to regress. Despite allowing a 29.2% clip from behind the arc, it should sit closer to 34%. The Bulldogs consistently exploited the Gators' poor execution while defending dribble hand-offs. I anticipate the Aggies will succeed similarly.
At the other end, Texas A&M's defense excels at stymying dribble-drive offenses, which Florida often employs with star guard Walter Clayton Jr. Its prowess on the boards should also limit the Gators' ability to create extra possessions. Florida produces the 33rd-highest second-chance conversion percentage against the average opponent (via Haslametrics).
If the Aggies inherit some shooting luck, they'll keep this one close — if not win outright. Good luck with your bets on Texas A&M at Florida odds!
March Madness Futures Odds
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