College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions Today: Will UCLA Upset Gonzaga?

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated December 30, 2024

Among Saturday’s odds for college basketball, the No. 14 Gonzaga Bulldogs (9-3) face the No. 22 UCLA Bruins (10-2) at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif. Both teams are in the top 10 of my college basketball power rankings. Let’s assess the odds for Gonzaga vs. UCLA, including possible same-game parlay options.

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gonzaga vs. ucla: spread, moneyline, total

Gonzaga vs. UCLA: Player Props

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My Pick: UCLA ATS

My power ratings have the Bruins higher than the Bulldogs. Since the beginning of this season, I’ve pegged Mark Few’s group as one of the most overrated teams in the betting market.

Although much of Gonzaga’s offensive firepower returned, Anton Watson’s departure created a glaring hole. In the last few weeks, Ryan Nembhard and Co. are ranked 100th in adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD). More regression is nearing without their defensive Swiss Army knife, as opponents have shot 27.7% on unguarded looks from behind the arc (via Synergy).

Granted, UCLA’s 3-point attempt rate settles below the D-I average, but it should exploit Gonzaga’s leaky low-post defense, assisting its inside-out action. In particular, Oregon State transfer Tyler Bilodeau has been a revelation for Mick Cronin’s four-out structure. The 6-foot-9, three-level maven grades in the 89th percentile of post-up efficiency on a points-per-possession (PPP) basis.

Related: Eli’s Longshot College Basketball Futures Bet

Conversely, the Bruins boast the fourth-rated AdjD. Cronin’s press-centric scheme forces the highest turnover rate nationally, which could pose an issue for Nembhard, the Bulldogs’ primary lead guard.

Meanwhile, UCLA’s transition defense has struggled. In last week’s loss to North Carolina, it surrendered 1.62 PPP on fast-break opportunities, blowing a 16-point second-half cushion. Gonzaga’s uptempo offense can also take advantage on paper, yet according to ShotQuality, the Bruins’ defense is primed for some favorable shooting luck in that department.

Final Thoughts

Mick Cronin has gone 0-5 against Mark Few, including four losses during his UCLA tenure. I believe the Bruins can pull off the outright upset, but I’ll take the points in what should be another close affair between these coaches. I bet on UCLA +4.5 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook on Saturday morning.

Good or bad, I’m always transparent with my wagers, which you’ll see in our free sports betting Discord channel. Just head to the #roles server to enroll in these push notifications. Thus far, my college basketball plays have gone 4-3 (+1.05 units).