College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions: Will UNC Upset Duke?

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated March 9, 2025

Among Saturday’s college basketball odds, the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils (27-3, 18-1) square off against the North Carolina Tar Heels (20-11, 13-6) at the Dean Smith Center. Unsurprisingly, the Blue Devils are hefty road favorites — perched near the top of my college basketball power rankings. Let’s handicap the odds and my best bets for Duke at UNC, including potential same-game parlay options.

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duke at unc: College Basketball Best bets

On Feb. 1, Duke blitzed North Carolina from the opening tip, 87-70, en route to covering the number (-13.5) at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Come Saturday, one of the best rivalries in all sports is renewed in their regular-season finale.

In their first tilt, the Blue Devils had their way in transition, scoring 19 points off the Tar Heels’ 14 turnovers. They also tallied 1.56 points per possession (PPP) on low-post touches against North Carolina’s vulnerable interior defense. On the other hand, UNC’s ball-screen action was extremely inefficient against Duke’s elite length and athleticism.

Per the latest odds for NCAA tournament bracketology, the Tar Heels have a 55.6% chance to earn an at-large bid in the Big Dance. While Hubert Davis’ squad is riding a six-game winning streak, it hasn’t faced a single opponent with a top-75 adjusted defensive efficiency during that stretch. Unsurprisingly, Duke ranks fourth in that department.

In a must-win spot for UNC’s March Madness aspirations, R.J. Davis and Co. must space out the Blue Devils’ drop coverage to hang within the spread.

While Duke has governed college basketball’s worst high-major conference, going 13-6 ATS (68.4%) in ACC play, its perimeter defense could undergo negative variance to close the season, starting with this contest. The Blue Devils have allowed a 35.3% clip on unguarded 3-point attempts.

Since Feb. 15, the Tar Heels have strung together a 47.8% clip from behind the arc. That may appear unsustainable given their abovementioned competition, but it wouldn’t surprise me if UNC’s four-out, one-in action finds some semblance of success.

Of course, its defense must figure out how to stymie Duke’s historically dominant offense, which has accumulated the highest 3-point efficiency (39.3%) in league play.

Final Thoughts

If I bet on the Tar Heels ATS, pregame or in-game, you’ll find it in our sports betting Discord channel. Users can enroll in push notifications by heading to the #roles server. Good luck with your bets for Duke at UNC odds!