College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions Today: Will Rutgers Upset Purdue?

Among Thursday’s college basketball odds, the No. 20 Purdue Boilermakers (11-4, 3-1) face off against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-7, 1-3) at Jersey Mike’s Arena in Piscataway, N.J. The Boilermakers are Purdue Boilermakers -14.5 (-115) on Bet365 spread favorites, with a total of 125.5 (-106) on BetRivers. Let’s assess the odds for Purdue at Rutgers, including same-game parlay options.
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purdue at rutgers odds: spread, moneyline, total
Rutgers vs. Purdue: Player Props
College Basketball Futures Odds
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college basketball betting Pick: Rutgers +2.5
Purdue has won three straight games, rebounding from consecutive mid-December losses to Auburn and Texas A&M. Matt Painter’s bunch ranks 10th nationally in 3-point efficiency (39.6%). Meanwhile, the Scarlet Knights have dropped three of their last four contests.
This point spread is almost identical to Monday’s line for Wisconsin at Rutgers, which the Badgers easily covered as a short favorite. The minor adjustment may seem surprising, but I have Wisconsin power-rated higher than Purdue. Therefore, there’s some value in the home underdog per my raw numbers.
Rutgers’ Biggest Edge
Although the Scarlet Knights’ typical home-court edge is mitigated by their inconsistent defense, a rarity for any Steve Pikell-led team, their offense should undergo positive regression.
Dylan Harper, one of Rutgers’ heralded five-star additions, has battled the flu over the last week. On Monday, he looked like a shell of himself, going scoreless in just 15 minutes. His status is unclear, but a two-day layoff between games — without any travel — can only help.
When healthy, Harper represents one of the sport’s top point guards, settling in the 93rd percentile in ball-screen action on a points-per-possession basis (via Synergy).
Moreover, the Scarlet Knights’ uptempo attack is set up to exploit the Boilermakers’ shaky transition defense. Harper and Co. have not been efficient in that department, but ShotQuality, designed to show the “quality” of attempts at both ends, has them ranked well above the D-I average.
Purdue’s veteran backcourt of Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer have historically struggled with more athletic guards, making this an appealing spot to bet on Harper and Ace Bailey, another likely top-five selection for the 2025 NBA Draft. After shooting 3-of-16 (18.8%) from the field versus Wisconsin, Bailey is due to bounce back against a vulnerable half-court defense.
Granted, Harper and Bailey’s inexperience could cost them in this situational spot, which aims to uncover conditions in which teams have exceeded or underperformed their usual level of play. But I’m betting Rutgers will deliver, with its March Madness hopes almost extinct.
Update: Harper, originally listed as questionable on the Big Ten availability report, is in the starting lineup.
Final Thoughts
I expect Rutgers to play competitively throughout and hang within a few possessions. Good or bad, I am transparent with my bets, which you’ll find in our sports betting Discord channel. Head to the #roles server to enroll in push notifications.
So far, I’ve gone 7-8 (+0.73 units) with my college basketball picks. Best of luck with your wagers on Purdue at Rutgers odds!