College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet On Texas A&M’s Final Four Futures?

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated December 17, 2024

Among Saturday’s odds for college basketball, the 8-2 Purdue Boilermakers take on the 8-2 Texas A&M Aggies in a top-20 matinee affair at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. These programs are neck-and-neck in my college basketball power rankings. Let’s assess the odds for Purdue vs. Texas A&M, including possible same-game parlay options.

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texas A&M at purdue: spread, moneyline, total

Purdue vs. Texas A&M Player Props

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My Pick: Texas A&M +2.5

While the Aggies rank 290th in eFG%, their shooting woes are partially due to playing the 59th-toughest schedule defensively.

Enter the Boilermakers, reeling at that end of the court (analytically speaking) after stripping their preseason priors.

To boot, Matt Painter’s team is slightly above the D-I average in defensive rebounding rate, failing to consistently limit second-chance opportunities without Zach Edey — the two-time Wooden Award winner. Whether or not Texas A&M receives positive shooting regression, I expect Henry Coleman and Co. to continue to excel on the offensive glass, ranked atop that department nationally.

Conversely, per Synergy, Purdue settles in the 28th percentile in points per possession (PPP) when pressed beyond half-court.

Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer have scuffled versus ball pressure throughout their time in West Lafayette. Most recently, the Boilermakers combined for 24 turnovers in a blowout loss at Penn State, unable to employ their patented ball-screen action.

Buzz Williams’ defensive scheme delivers no shortage of havoc, forcing turnovers at a top-70 clip. Even in a de facto road tilt, I’m confident that the Aggies’ veteran backcourt, led by Wade Taylor and SMU transfer Zhuric Phelps, will keep things close — if not win straight up.

Texas A&M Futures Odds

For bettors who haven’t paid much attention to college basketball, the SEC is far and away the premier conference. According to KenPom, its net rating is more than three points higher than the Big 10, the next-best league listed.

The Aggies’ résumé is arguably that of a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament. However, Williams’ bunch isn’t priced like one, especially in the Final Four futures market. Their best odds are currently +2000 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

If Texas A&M wins this matchup and continues to excel in an arduous SEC, a Final Four ticket will hold plenty of value among the odds for March Madness.

Taylor and his teammates also rank highly in the following categories, all of which are significant factors toward making a run in the Big Dance. The 2013 Syracuse Orange advanced to the Final Four with a similar profile.

Minutes continuity (No. 4)
D-I experience (No. 9)
Adjusted defensive efficiency (No. 9)
Bench minutes (No. 58)

Combine those traits with their prowess for creating extra possessions, an indispensable asset when shots aren’t falling, and I’m willing to place a small bet on their futures odds.

Final Thoughts

On Saturday morning, I bet on Texas A&M to cover the +2.5 (-110) point spread.

Good or bad, I’m always transparent with my picks, which you will see in our free sports betting Discord channel. Head to the #roles server to enroll in these push notifications. So far, my college basketball plays have gone 2-1 (+0.85 units).

Good luck with your bets on Purdue vs. Texas A&M odds!