College Basketball Odds & Mountain West Semifinal Picks: Will Boise State Upset New Mexico?

Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated at March 15, 2025

On Friday's college basketball odds board, the top-seeded New Mexico Lobos (26-6, 17-3) square off against the fifth-seeded Boise State Broncos (23-9, 14-6) in the 2025 Mountain West Tournament semifinals in Las Vegas. The Lobos opened as 2.5-point favorites, yet the market came in swiftly on the Broncos. Let's assess the betting odds and my picks for New Mexico vs. Boise State, including potential same-game parlay options.

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new Mexico vs. Boise State odds: spread, moneyline, total

March Madness Odds

Bettors can search for the best futures betting odds for New Mexico, Boise State, or any other team with our March Madness odds comparison table.

College basketball best bets: New Mexico or Boise State ats?

This spread may surprise bettors, considering a fully healthy Lobos team dismantled the Broncos in their first meeting before falling at ExtraMile Arena without veteran forward Mustapha Amzil, their third-leading scorer. To boot, Boise State knocked off San Diego State in their quarterfinals tilt with Aztecs forward Magoon Gwath (knee), the conference's freshman and defensive player of the year, remaining sidelined.

Nevertheless, my raw numbers make Leon Rice's squad a slight favorite. As well as New Mexico has played on the defensive end (17th-ranked AdjD), it's exceeded its ShotQuality record by five wins. Conversely, the Broncos have underperformed in this department by two victories.

Stylistically, Boise State matches up well in the rubber match. In Mountain West play, the Broncos have compiled the league's top-ranked rebounding rate at both ends, helping them dictate a methodical pace. This is the antithesis of how Donovan Dent and Co. best function.

According to Synergy, their post-up defense is in the 69th percentile on a points-per-possession (PPP) basis. If Boise State stymies Amzil and Nelly Junior Joseph via the paint and limits their second-chance opportunities, the Broncos have a realistic chance of taking down the Lobos.

Offensively, the Broncos are a high-variance club, attempting a program-record 40 3-pointers in the quarterfinals. However, their perimeter shooting, or lack thereof (31.3%, 307th nationally), could easily cost them if three-level scorer Tyson Degenhart can't find a rhythm on the low block.

Still, I will trust my power ratings and back Boise State, looking to bolster its at-large resume and (by all intents and purposes) seal an NCAA tournament bid.

Final Betting Thoughts

On Friday, I bet on Boise State +1.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook). You'll find it on our free sports betting Discord channel, where you can enroll in push notifications in the #roles server. Good luck with your bets on New Mexico vs. Boise State odds!

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