College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet On Total In Michigan State At Michigan?

Written By Eli Hershkovich | Published at February 21, 2025

On Friday's college basketball odds board, the No. 12 Michigan Wolverines (20-5, 12-2) face their in-state rivals, the No. 14 Michigan State Spartans (21-5, 12-3), in a battle for first place in the Big 10 standings. Both teams are in the top 25 of my college basketball power rankings. According to the betting market, the Wolverines are Michigan Wolverines -3 (-113) on BetRivers home favorites. Let's break down the odds for MSU at Michigan, including options for your same-game parlay.

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msu at Michigan odds: spread, moneyline, total

With home-court advantage worth around three points toward most point spreads in college basketball betting, the line indicates that bookmakers would give the Wolverines a slight edge if these teams met on a neutral floor. I'd argue Michigan is overvalued by a smidge at -3, but is there a decisive advantage in any major market?

Evaluating The Total

Dusty May's squad has won seven of its last eight games, all coming by two possessions or fewer. While closing out games counts for something (re: 2021-22 Providence), the Wolverines have benefited from their fair share of positive variance in league play. ShotQuality notes that they've received the 13th-most record among any D-I team, pointing to their turnover woes (331st) and exploitable drop-coverage defense as potential regression indicators.

However, their elite pick-and-roll action between Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin has mitigated those flaws. It could prove deadly versus the Spartans' interior defense. According to CBB Analytics, they've settled in the 17th percentile of field-goal efficiency allowed in the paint over their last 10 games.

In a home loss against Indiana on Feb. 12, the Hoosiers' Oumar Ballo and Malik Reneau totaled 33 points, carving up Michigan State via ball-screen sets.

Conversely, the Wolverines' abovementioned defensive structure plays into the hands of the Spartans' offense, which has been hyper-effective in the mid-range lately. The same goes for Michigan's vulnerability in transition, a reinvigorated staple of MSU's attack with A.J. Hoggard no longer in the fold.

I'd consider betting on the over rather than taking a stance on the spread or moneyline, but the market has already adjusted to the influx of high-scoring games to the point where I don't see much value.

msu at Michigan: player props

An Eye On March

If you expect the Wolverines to emerge victorious and remain hot the rest of the way, their best price to win the conference's regular-season crown is -105 at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Spartans' best odds are +210 at DraftKings Sportsbook.