College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions Today: Will Arkansas Upset Missouri?

On Saturday’s college basketball odds board, the Arkansas Razorbacks (11-6, 0-4) face the Missouri Tigers (14-3, 3-1) at Mizzou Arena. After four straight losses, the Razorbacks are long gone from my college basketball power rankings. In fact, the Tigers are Missouri Tigers -5.5 (-112) on FanDuel spread favorites following their upset win at Florida. The total is 149.5 (-107) on BetRivers. Let’s handicap the odds for Missouri vs. Arkansas, including same-game parlay options.
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Arkansas at Missouri odds: spread, moneyline, total
College Basketball Futures Odds
You can search for the best futures betting odds for Arkansas, Missouri, or any other team below. For more March Madness odds, click “Show all bets.”
College basketball betting Pick: Arkansas ats
Earlier in the week, I circled Missouri vs. Arkansas as my favorite buy-low, sell-high situational spot on Saturday’s jam-packed slate. This term refers to certain conditions in which teams have surpassed or fallen short of their usual performance level — relative to the moneyline or point spread.
With the Razorbacks reeling and the Tigers riding high after their stunning upset victory (+10.5) over the No. 5 Gators, this line is valuable compared to my raw numbers. For reference, I make it closer to Missouri -4/4.5.
While John Calipari has struggled to put the pieces together in his first campaign in Fayetteville, Ark., the Hogs rank 28th in adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD) per KenPom. This is highly underlooked because of their shooting concerns. They’ve also settled in the 96th percentile of field goal percentage allowed in the paint (32.3%) since Dec. 7. This timeline matches up with the return of Tennessee transfer Jonas Aidoo, who anchors their rim protection.
Suppose the Tigers’ new-look, floor-spacing attack experiences a dose of negative regression following a three-game stretch of shooting 42.3% from behind the arc. The Hogs’ elite interior defense should reap the benefits. They have generated a top-10 block rate and are dependable at limiting free-throw attempts against an offense that relies on them.
Conversely, Arkansas’ 3-point misery is well-positioned to continue to reverse course. In Tuesday’s loss at LSU, it shot above 22% from behind the arc for the first time in SEC play. Missouri represents another likely cure, grading in the 20th percentile of spot-up jumpers allowed on a points-per-possession basis (via Synergy).
Missouri-Arkansas Odds: Final Thoughts
On Friday night, I placed a wager on Arkansas +6 (-110), which you will find in our sports betting Discord channel. Head to the #roles server to enroll in push notifications. I expect the Razorbacks to hang within a few possessions against the SEC’s third-worst defense.
Best of luck with your wagers on the odds for Arkansas at Missouri!