College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions Saturday: Will Auburn 'Upset' Alabama?

On Saturday's college basketball odds board, the marquee matchup tips off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN, as the No. 1 Auburn Tigers head to Tuscaloosa to face off against the No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide. Both teams are near the top of my college basketball power rankings, with the Tide opening as 1.5-point favorites. Let's evaluate the odds for Auburn at Alabama, including options for your same-game parlay.

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auburn at alabama odds: spread, moneyline, total

Explaining The Point Spread

Some college basketball bettors may wonder why Auburn isn't favored. While it's a fair inquiry on the surface, remember that the AP Top 25 poll doesn't dictate the market — ever. National media pundits may not give this game the headline of an upset if Bruce Pearl's team comes out on top, but it would be according to the market.

The most pristine home-court advantage is worth around three points to the line. Take that out, and sportsbooks would likely have the Tigers (22-2, 10-1) lined near a 1.5-point favorite on a neutral court against the Tide (21-3, 10-3).

Thus, oddsmakers have Auburn power-rated everso slightly more than Alabama, making this theoretical point spread above a pick'em.

Regular readers of TheLines' college hoops coverage may remember my April futures bet on the Tigers at 35-1.

Related: Eli's College Basketball Power Rankings

Situational Spot Favors Alabama

This tilt is a motivational spot in the Tide's direction for certain handicappers. If you’re unfamiliar with situational spots, they aim to uncover conditions where teams have surpassed or fallen short of their standard efficiency — relative to the moneyline or spread.

With Alabama in its home gym, Coleman Coliseum, there's a clear incentive to make a statement while evening up the top of the league standings.

According to CBB Analytics, Auburn grades in the 90th percentile or better in offensive and defensive field goal percentage at the rim. But how much will that matter against the Tide's perimeter-oriented attack?

Mark Sears and Co. rank 30th nationally in 3-point attempt rate, attempting to win the shot volume battle every night. Nate Oats' dribble-drive offense should tally its fair share of long-range clean looks versus the Tigers' drop coverage, primarily if it controls the boards and dictates the pace in transition.

Auburn has quietly allowed double-digit offensive rebounds in eight of their last nine games. Led by Rutgers transfer Clifford Omoruyi, Alabama is more than capable of taking advantage.

Historic Total?

Although operators anticipate plenty of points between these powerhouse teams, this market is lower than bettors witnessed on Jan. 18. Ahead of Alabama at Kentucky tipping off, the over/under opened 178.5, the highest total for either one in 25-plus years. Unsurprisingly, it went over.

auburn at Alabama: player props

College Basketball Futures Odds

Search for the best futures betting odds for Auburn, Alabama, or any other team below. For more March Madness odds, just click “Show all bets.”