College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions: 2 Best Bets, Including Missouri at Georgia
With the NFL season in the books, college basketball odds take center stage. In this column, I’ll highlight two SEC situational spots, attempting to uncover circumstances in which teams often exceed or fall short of their usual efficiency — relative to the moneyline or point spread. Let’s handicap the odds for No. 15 Kentucky at Texas and No. 21 Missouri at Georgia, including a few options for your same-game parlays on Saturday.
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missouri at Georgia odds: spread, moneyline, total
College Basketball Best Bet: Georgia ATS
Regular readers of TheLines’ hoops coverage know that Tuesday I wagered on the Bulldogs at Texas A&M. After building a nine-point halftime cushion, Georgia tallied 13+ minutes without a field goal to begin the second half — en route to the Aggies covering the spread. Cue Ron Burgendy’s liner, “I’m not even mad. That’s amazing.”
Despite that cringeworthy result, I’m going back to the well for this desperation spot. Mike White’s crew has lost seven of its last nine games and is sitting squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble.
Led by 6-foot-11 frosh Asa Newell, the Bulldogs’ post-up action ranks in the 82nd percentile on a points-per-possession basis (PPP). Conversely, the Tigers’ interior defense has been non-existent of late. Throughout the campaign, they grade in the 11th percentile in defending post-ups. I expect Newell to have his way on the block without any rim protection.
Moreover, Missouri continues on a downward spiral versus physical and lengthy squads, racking up losses against Memphis, Illinois, Auburn, Tennessee, and Texas A&M. The Tigers shot below 31% from behind the arc in all those contests.
Georgia has one of the league’s most tenacious defenses, especially in transition, which should limit the number of in-rhythm looks for Caleb Grill and Co.
The Bulldogs’ defensive prowess continues with avoiding fouls, keeping SEC foes off the free-throw line at the second-most efficient clip. Considering the Tigers rank second nationally in attempt rate at the charity stripe, the offense isn’t projected for much success.
Injury-wise, Georgia two-guard Dakota Leffew (ankle), who sat out the Texas A&M game, reportedly participated in Thursday’s practice. His two-way presence against Mizzou’s potent attack can’t be overstated.
Final Betting Thoughts
I bet on Georgia +1.5 (down to a PK) ahead of this SEC showdown. You’ll find this wager on our free sports betting Discord channel. Users can enroll in push notifications by heading to the #roles server, and you’ll receive instant alerts when I place a bet!
Best of luck with your bets on Missouri at Georgia odds!
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kentucky at texas Odds: spread, moneyline, total
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas ML
Like Georgia, the Longhorns are primed to rebound after dropping four of their last five contests. To boot, Wildcats stalwarts Lamont Butler (shoulder) and Jaxon Robinson (wrist) will likely miss this tilt after Tuesday’s emotional victory versus the Vols.
Texas has been gifted with a terrific situational spot at home, but how can it take advantage?
Kentucky has received a de facto fortune from its opponents, allowing a 33% clip on unguarded 3-point attempts. For context, it ranks in the 82nd percentile across D-I.
The Longhorns aren’t reliant on long-range shots, but they’re due for positive variance after shooting only 30.1% from deep in the abovementioned losses. Their poor shooting is partially a byproduct of facing the SEC’s most challenging schedule.
Additionally, NBA prospect Tre Johnson should exploit the Wildcats’ vulnerable dribble-drive defense, which will struggle even more with containment minus Butler. Kentucky surrenders 1.05 PPP when he’s on the bench — 0.12 PPP more than when he’s in the lineup (via hoop-explorer).
Meanwhile, Texas’ switching defense is designed to hinder Kentucky’s patented zoom action, especially without a reliable ball handler. When guarding off-ball sets, the Longhorns rank in the 99th percentile on a PPP basis (per Synergy).
In a ruckus Moody Center, look for Rodney Terry’s unit to position itself on the right side of the NCAA tournament bubble.
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