College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions Today: Will St. Bonaventure Upset Dayton?

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
Dayton St. Bonaventure Odds

On Tuesday’s college basketball odds board, the Dayton Flyers (14-6, 4-3) travel to the Reilly Center to square off against the St. Bonaventure Bonnies (15-6, 3-5). The Flyers are Dayton Flyers +19.5 (-105) on DraftKings road favorites, but neither program is in my college basketball power rankings. Let’s handicap the odds and my best bets for Dayton at St. Bonaventure, including options for your same-game parlay.

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tuesday’s college basketball best bets: bonnies ats

With Atlantic 10 play heating up, I’ve circled this tilt as a buy-low spot on St. Bonaventure. If you’re unfamiliar with situational spots, they aim to uncover circumstances in which teams have exceeded or underperformed their usual performance level — relative to the moneyline or point spread.

Bonnies coach Mark Schmidt created a soft nonconference schedule to help his group develop cohesion. For reference, St. Bonaventure ranks 332nd in minutes continuity, bringing four new faces into the starting lineup.

As a result, the Bonnies’ 14-6 against-the-spread (ATS) record is tied for the 18th-best cover rate (70%). Nevertheless, they fell short in five of their last six contests, causing their market rating to dip.

Granted, two-time transfer Chance Moore, St. Bonaventure’s leading scorer (14.5 ppg), missed most of its losses to Duquesne and George Mason with a foot injury before returning in Friday’s 14-point defeat at VCU.

Enter the Flyers, riding a three-game winning streak after dropping a few in a row. Dayton doesn’t lack chemistry, exhibited by its 35th-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency nationally — with point guard Malachi Smith at the controls. Schmidt’s transition defense must continue to prevent fast-break opportunities and defend at a high level.

Conversely, the Flyers’ rim defense is exploitable, ranking 271st in near-proximity percentage allowed (per Haslametrics).

In particular, Zed Key and Co. settle in the 17th percentile of post-up efficiency surrendered on a points-per-possession (PPP) basis. That spells disaster versus the Bonnies’ uber-effective interior attack, led by the 6-foot-11, 255-pound Noel Brown.

Final Thoughts

Over Anthony Grant’s tenure as Dayton’s coach, he’s 7-1 versus Schmidt. Still, I expect the Bonnies to keep this one close in a must-win spot.

On Monday evening, I wagered on St. Bonaventure +2.5 (-110), which you’ll see on our sports betting Discord channel. Users can enroll in push notifications by heading to the #roles server. Good luck with your bets for Dayton at St. Bonaventure odds!

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