Selection Sunday is almost two weeks away. With that in mind, I was joined by four college basketball bettors (some might fondly say degenerates) for this NCAA tournament odds snake draft. Below, we break down our favorite futures bets for the big dance, including national title and Final Four prices.
NCAA Tournament Odds Snake Draft
Matt had the first pick in odd-numbered rounds, with Hayden selecting first in even-numbered rounds. The best available odds for each of these selections is linked below. Click on the odds to place a bet.
|Matt Marquart||David Stall||Eli Hershkovich||Jordan Majewski||HaydenGOAT|
|Round 2||Duke||Houston||Ark Final 4||Auburn||TX Tech Final 4|
|Round 3||Illinois||Ohio State||UConn||Nova Final 4||Purdue Final 4|
|Round 4||Bama Final 4||USC Final 4||Texas Final 4||TN Final 4||UCLA Final 4|
|Round 5||Memphis Final 4||San Fran Final 4||North TX Final 4||SDSU Final 4||UAB Final 4|
1.01: Arizona ()
Matt Marquart: Besides Gonzaga, Arizona is the only team currently in the top 10 of KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive (AdjO) and Defensive (AdjD) Efficiency. The Wildcats present better odds than Gonzaga at the moment.
Adjusted Efficiency accounts for the estimate efficiency (points scored or allowed per 100 possessions) a team would accrue or allow against the average Division I opponent.
1.02: Baylor ()
David Stall: The market is a bit low on the Bears. They’re elite at causing turnovers, defend the perimeter well, and are relentless on offensive glass (even without Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, who’s out for the rest of season with a knee injury).
1.03: Kentucky ()
Eli Hershkovich: The Wildcats present the one of the most efficient uptempo offenses in the country, and they control the pace with an elite rebounder in Wooden Award candidate Oscar Tshiebwe (). Assuming five-star freshman TyTy Washington (ankle) is healthy for the NCAA tournament, John Calipari’s bunch presents the deepest roster across Division I.
For disclosure, I backed Kentucky at +3000 in December.
Washington, #3, is not only a dynamic shot creator, but he also owns a top-220 assist rate.
1.04: Gonzaga ()
Jordan Majewski: I’m not overthinking it. The Bulldogs give me the best chance to actually cash, so I’ll sacrifice value with the fourth pick for the best team in the nation.
1.05: Kansas ()
Hayden: The Jayhawks have some concerns on the defensive end, but if Ochai Agbaji plays well, they can pull it off.
2.01: Texas Tech (Final Four )
Hayden: I don’t think there are many teams that can win national title this year, so I’ll take Texas Tech to make Final Four. The Red Raiders have the best defense in the country. Whether or not their offense can avoid the scoring droughts is the question.
If not for Agbaji, Bryson Williams, #11, would be leading the 2021-22 Big 12 Player of the Year race.
2.02: Auburn ()
Jordan Majewski: I’m not a big fan of the shot selection sometimes, but the Tigers have confident dribble dominant guards, one of the best pure players in the country and an elite interior defense. They certainly possess enough to string together enough wins as a likely No. 1 seed.
2.03: Arkansas (Final Four )
Eli Hershkovich: Similar to Texas Tech, the Razorbacks’ half-court offense can get a bit stagnant at times, but JD Notae is lethal in the pick-and-roll sets — on or off-ball. They also showcase the SEC’s premier defense with a completely switchable unit, especially with Jaylin Williams’ improvement matching up with opposing guards. Who would’ve thought we’d be saying that about Eric Musselman-led NCAA tournament odds?
2.04: Houston ()
David Stall: We all know the Cougars’ offense can get ugly at times (especially without Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark), but at worst you’ve got elite defense, elite rebounding, and they’ll turn to the game into a rock fight. If their offense gets hot, look out. It’s worth a flier at this price.
2.05: Duke ()
3.01: Illinois ()
Matt Marquart: The Illini are a balanced team, ranking top-25 in both AdjO and AdjD. They’ve got a inside-out offense with Kofi Cockburn and shooting while taking away the rim and perimeter at the other end. Plus, there may be some upside we haven’t seen yet with a healthy Andre Curbelo.
3.02: Ohio State ()
David Stall: I love E.J. Liddell, who in addition to being a great offensive player has turned himself into a force defensively as well. The Buckeyes’ defense has some concerns, but there’s enough fire power here that the ceiling is very intriguing.
3.03: UConn ()
Eli Hershkovich: I’ve been on Huskies futures since the beginning of the season, and their NCAA tournament odds are clicking at the right time after their win over Villanova.
3.04: Villanova (Final Four )
Jordan Majewski: Jay Wright delivers a veteran group, switchable defense and finally gets production from frontcourt at both ends. Collin Gillespie might be playing with a chip after missing last year’s tournament too.
Gillespie, #2, owns a top-55 offensive rating across college basketball (per KenPom).
3.05: Purdue (Final Four )
4.01: UCLA (Final Four )
Hayden: The Bruins may have been overrated at the start of season, but they’re flying under radar ever since. They’re a team with plenty of experience from last season — led by one of best coaches in country in Mick Cronin.
4.02: Tennessee (Final Four )
Jordan Majewski: Although the knock has been that the Volunteers can’t make shots to back up elite defense, they have a great backcourt, especially with Zakai Zeigler (playing well) now too.
4.03: Texas (Final Four )
Eli Hershkovich: Alright, I’m a sucker for Chris Beard teams after he led my Texas Tech futures to the 2019 title game. The Longhorns’ lack of cohesion has translated into scoring droughts, leading to their inconsistent play, but they still flaunt the talent for a potential run with their stout half-court defense. Despite losing big man Tre Mitchell (personal), his departure has opened up a bigger role for sharpshooter Andrew Jones.
4.04: USC (Final Four )
David Stall: The Trojans are athletic team and, when engaged defensively, can be one of the best in the country. USC has the length and ability to switch with just about any team. I still don’t think we’ve seen the best of Isaiah Mobley, either.
4.05: Alabama (Final Four )
Matt Marquart: The Crimson Tide are a high-variance team, but the upside to beating one of the big boys is there if they ever start making 3-pointers. Their NCAA tournament odds were viciously upset a year ago as a result of the Bruins’ fluky run to the Final Four.
Jaden Shackelford, #5, & Co. own the third-lowest 3-point clip (28.6%) during SEC play.
5.01: Memphis (Final Four )
5.02: San Francisco (Final Four )
David Stall: If the Dons can get the turnovers in check, there are no glaring weakness on this team. Their defense is already there. When they aren’t turning the ball over, they’re actually a very efficient offense (43rd-ranked effective FG%).
Jamaree Bouyea, #1, represents one of the best mid-major point guards.
5.03: North Texas (Final Four )
Eli Hershkovich: Not only do the Mean Green have the 20th-ranked AjD, but Mardrez McBride and Tylor Perry are also high-level shooters. Keep in mind, their NCAA tournament odds have experience after upsetting Purdue in the Round of 64 last season.
5.04: South Dakota State (Final Four )
Jordan Majewski: The Jackrabbits generate elite shot making. Their defense is obviously a concern, but we said the same thing about Oral Roberts last year. SDSU can trade shots with literally team in the country.
5.05: UAB (Final Four )
Hayden: For a super long-shot pick, I’ll go with the Blazers. They own a top-30 offense with a veteran backcourt. They’ll need to beat North Texas in the Conference USA tournament to earn a spot, though.