College Basketball Final Four Odds & Picks: UConn Conundrum, Longshot Bet

, ,
Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
College Basketball Picks

Approaching non-stop conference play, there is no better time to reevaluate March Madness odds — specifically to make the Final Four. This market allows bettors to wager on teams to advance deep in the NCAA tournament without relying on them to win it all. Auburn and Duke are favored among potential college basketball picks, with the betting odds for two-time defending champion UConn on their heels.

Let’s inspect this version of the Huskies before highlighting a longshot candidate within college basketball odds. You can use the best sportsbook promos from the best sports betting sites.

college basketball picks: Duke, auburn, UConn, and more

Huskies’ Defensive Concerns

During the last two seasons, UConn surrendered a 29% clip on guarded 3-pointers (per Synergy). The Huskies’ length and elite ball pressure, driven by Tristen Newton, Stephon Castle, Andre Jackson, and Cam Spencer, often put opposing marksmen into a blender.

Through the first 12 games of this campaign, Dan Hurley’s team has yielded a 39.5% clip on contested shots from behind the arc, ranking in the sixth percentile of points-per-shot allowed. While it boasts imposing rim protection, its struggling perimeter defense has heavily contributed to its 96th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency — a far cry from Hurley’s title-hoisting teams.

UConn will eventually experience some positive regression in this category. Nevertheless, its shortage of elite-level backcourt physicality, particularly with starters Hassan Diarra and Solo Ball, is a significant issue.

In recent seasons, Hurley has effectively employed drop coverage with former Huskies big men Donovan Clingan and Adama Sanogo. Given UConn’s poor defense around the arc, he no longer has that luxury. If the Huskies face a five-out offense in the first or second round of the tournament, they could suffer an early exit.

final four odds: my longshot college basketball pick

Texas A&M Aggies (+1500 at bet365 Sportsbook)

Full disclosure: I bet on the Aggies to make the Final Four at +2000 odds ahead of their victory over Purdue last weekend. But even with less of an edge at this price, I still consider it a valuable wager if you bet a smaller stake.

Buzz Williams’ crew ranks highly in the following categories, which are all significant factors in making a run in the Big Dance.

  • Offensive rebounding rate (No. 1)
  • Minutes continuity (No. 4)
  • D-I experience (No. 9)
  • Adjusted defensive efficiency (No. 9)
  • Bench minutes (No. 58)
  • Opponents’ turnover rate (No. 61)

In particular, manufacturing extra possessions is indispensable if shots aren’t falling on a neutral court. The 2013-14 Syracuse Orange advanced to the Final Four with a similar profile.

With Texas A&M’s veteran backcourt, comprised of Wade Taylor IV and SMU transfer Zhuric Phelps, this team has the tools to tally four (or more) victories in the tournament. The Aggies’ 37th-ranked non-conference strength-of-schedule rating, including semi-road wins over aforementioned Purdue and Texas Tech, is evidence of that.

Good luck with your wagers on Final Four odds and college basketball picks!

Photo by Associated Press/Eric Gay

RELATED ARTICLES