Saturday College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions: Wisconsin, Arkansas Worth Betting?
No. 13 Illinois at Wisconsin; 1 p.m. ET on btn
Although I’m bearish on Wisconsin’s long-term outlook, this game represents a chance to buy low on the Badgers. They’ve lost six of their last eight games, including Tuesday’s defeat at lowly Indiana. Enter Illinois, winners of four of its previous five contests despite yielding an average of 1.18 points per possession (PPP) during that stretch.
In particular, Illini center Coleman Hawkins & Co. rank in the fifth percentile of percentage of points allowed from that vicinity. That spells doom against Wisconsin, which owns a top-40 field goal clip on near-proximity attempts against the average opponent (per Haslametrics).
Steven Crawl and Tyler Wahl, two of their three leading scorers, are adept at finishing near the rim. If they establish themselves early on, Illinois will be forced to play at Wisconsin’s preferred methodical pace. That isn’t how Illinois is constructed for success, generating a top-60 adjusted tempo while converting on a myriad of transition opportunities.
My raw numbers make this line closer to Wisconsin -2 in a prime bounce-back spot. Conversely, Haslametrics forecasts a score of 77.6-77.2, barely favoring the Badgers.
The Tar Heel State announced North Carolina online sportsbooks will go live on March 11. Residents can sign up for pre-launch bonus bets.
Arkansas at no. 16 kentucky; 1:30 p.m. ET on CBS
Whether you’re fading the Wildcats or betting on the Razorbacks, neither is for the faint-hearted. In this case, you can do both!
For bettors who can stomach a wager on the dreadful Hogs, there’s value according to my betting model. Kentucky is coming off four wins in its last five games. Their most recent victories were against Alabama and Mississippi State. The Wildcats defied all odds (literally) in the latter matchup, closing as high as +4.5 against the Bulldogs. Evidently, the market expected a letdown for the Wildcats in Starkville, Miss.
Meanwhile, Arkansas handed Vanderbilt its third SEC win on Tuesday. The market has likely soured on Eric Musselman’s squad as a result.
However, the Razorbacks are nearing full strength with Trevon Brazile returning to the rotation. They also gave Kentucky fits in their first meeting without Brazile, shielding the paint with nine blocks. Assuming Brazile continues to see his minutes ramp up, Arkansas’ stout rim defense should help generate fast-break points against the Wildcats’ vulnerable transition defense.
My raw numbers have this line right around Kentucky -12. On the other hand, Haslametrics projects a score of 91.2-74.2, heavily favoring the Wildcats.
watch outside shots: college basketball picks
Erik Haslam runs the analytics site referenced above and will return to Outside Shots once conference tournaments are underway. Catch this weekend’s betting preview below.
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Where Can You Bet On College Basketball Player Props?
Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia all outlaw betting on college props. Other states match the guidance of banning in-state school prop betting.
Virginia allows betting on in-state schools but not props on in-state players. The remaining states with sportsbooks allow wagering (plus live bets) on college basketball player prop odds, including in-state teams.
College Basketball Player Props Available At Underdog
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