Scanning daily college basketball odds are not at the forefront of most people’s betting to-do list these days. But with Selection Sunday just 29 days away, March Madness is right around the corner. Let’s take a look at three teams that are positioned to make a run to the Final Four — and may be worth considering for your own college basketball bets.
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Saint Mary’s Gaels ()
After defeating the ‘Zags in an overtime thriller on Saturday, the Gaels are set up to win their first WCC regular season title since 2012. Not only does Randy Bennett’s team possess the fourth-rated adjusted defensive efficiency (per KenPom), but it’s also led by Aiden Mahaney, a dynamic freshman scorer who put on a dribble penetration clinic in the second half of the comeback victory.
Bennett’s ball-screen structure represents the straw that stirs the drink. Between Mahaney, Alex Ducas, and Kyle Bowen, the Gaels space the floor efficiently around 6-foot-10 big Mitchell Saxen, too. While their ultra-methodical pace would make it difficult to overcome a deficit against a superiorly athletic opponent in March, their length and prowess on the glass often allows them to dictate the tempo.
However, Saint Mary’s saw its Final Four odds shorten from +1200 on Saturday. Hence, there isn’t as much value left on the table for your college basketball bets.
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Indiana Hoosiers ()
Similar to the Gaels, the Hoosiers’ victory over the top-ranked Boilermakers caused this number to compress. Led by Wooden Award candidate Trayce Jackson-Davis () and budding frosh guard Jalen Hood-Schifino, they’ve even won six of their last seven games. That’s why I suggested to get ahead of the market movement on Friday.
Nevertheless, the notion that Indiana has yet to reach the peak of its market value isn’t crazy. For starters, it has a four-game stretch against Rutgers, Michigan, Northwestern, and Illinois on deck. All of these programs are in the upper echelon of the Big Ten standings. If you believe the Hoosiers will continue to ascend, then their price tag will inevitably follow suit.
Moreover, Mike Woodson’s current rotation doesn’t include Xavier Johnson (broken foot) nor Jordan Geronimo (leg). The latter is on pace to return shortly, and he’ll lengthen Indiana’s deep rotation. There’s still no timetable for Johnson’s reinsertion, but he’s arguably the conference’s top point guard when healthy. The Hoosiers boast the 12th-rated adjusted offensive efficiency since Jan. 14, and Johnson’s comeback would gift them two lead ball handlers — an invaluable resource come the Big Dance.
Related: 2023 March Madness Odds
Creighton Bluejays ()
Dating back to Ryan Kalkbrenner’s return on Dec. 22, the Bluejays are power rated as a top-five unit. That ranking is ahead of programs like Houston (), UCLA (), and TCU ().
The market has to completely adjust, though. In fact, their Final Four odds are noticeably higher than they were to begin the campaign (+550). That figure could come closer to resurfacing if Creighton defeats UConn () on Saturday.
Steered by an elite defense — with Kalkbrenner manning the middle — the Bluejays aren’t known for the stellar offensive efficiency that we’ve become accustomed to on Greg McDermott’s best teams. But his four-out, one-in attack is still a daunting task to prep for, thanks to his decorative sets. Sophomore guard Trey Alexander has made the biggest leap at that end, especially from behind the arc (40.4%).
With that said, my lone concern is inconsistent perimeter shooting on a neutral court, considering its top-30 frequency in catch-and-shoot situations (per ShotQuality). As of Monday, Creighton’s collective 3-point clip (34.6%) finds itself slightly above the DI average.
